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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 13, 2021
This week was the USDA-WASDE report week and a week heading into a three day weekend in the US ---- perhaps the markets should have been very exciting, but they weren't.
Corn prices in the US slipped lower by about USD 4 m/t on the week while soybeans moved up by USD 3 m/t and soymeal dropped by about USD 3 m/t. Wheat prices for both winter and spring wheat were down by USD 2 to 5 m/t.
Corn prices were pushed lower on the week by bigger stocks in the WASDE report than had been expected but the sell-off on the week was less than some analysts had expected which may mean that there is still some strength in corn prices. The feeling in the trade this holiday weekend is that corn prices will trade in a range for the next while – until we see some harvest problems in South America or lower plantings in North America, both of which may never happen. Of course, in South America there is always the risk of truckers strikes, port strikes, etc that can excite the trade and push prices higher.
With only a couple of days after the WASDE before the long weekend, nothing earth shattering happened in the US soybean business. Everyone is still watching South America, Brazil in particular, to see if the expected giant soybean crop is harvested. There has been talk in the trade about concern over Brazil soybean crop yields – any drop in actual yields on the harvest could be a good way to push soybean prices higher.
There were worries about the very, very, very cold weather expected in the wheat belt of the US this week and how we may see higher winter frost kill numbers, but this still did not keep prices from sipping a little lower as all international wheat prices moved lower. There was the comment in US reports that wheat use in animal feed is increasing as feed wheat looks to be able to replace corn in rations in some areas of the country – it is all just price. Like corn, traders seem to feel that wheat prices will move in a narrow range over the next few weeks just waiting for some news.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45/47.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed |
| X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $44/45.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $41/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $41/41.50 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $35/36.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $54/55.00 | Up $7.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1339 | Up 6 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1242 | Down 285 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1944 | Up 282 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 1217 | Up 73 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 751 | Up 32 | x |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2021/May 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 284>>272 new crop | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 282/285 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 274/277 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 279/282 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 288/291 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 280/282 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 266/269 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 272/274 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 262/264 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 245/248 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 248/251 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 247/250 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 272/275 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 241>>227 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 270>>230 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 273/275 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 268/271 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 273/276 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 257/260 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 228>>212 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 337/340 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 507/510 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 532/535 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 546/549 spot | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 471>>454 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 540/543 spot | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 482>>459 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 538>>533 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 537>>506 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 514/516 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 557/560 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 800/820 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265/270 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 325>>315 m/t | x |
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USA domestic prices for DDGS, corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal were all higher this. DDGS looked to be up by USD 5 to 10 m/t with CGF up by about USD 8 m/t and CGM up by USD 10 to 15 m/t for barge loads to NOLA.
Trade reports were saying that it is almost impossible to get any shipment of DDGS or corn gluten meal out of the US before May/June. The US Grains Council report this week mentioned that February March DDGS prices are at about a USD 50 m/t premium to DDGS from October 2021 to the end of the year. So, looks like there is some hope for lower prices just for 7 months away.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 950/970 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 540/550 m/t CNF China USD 560/720 to Indonesia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 980/1,000 m/t CNF Asia |
However, in Australia, tight supply has pushed local prices higher and this should move into the export business one there is new demand. Trade publications feel that there is a good chance of higher export prices from Australia and perhaps New Zealand.
USA feather meal prices are said to be steady to higher this week as demand remains very good. US meat and bone meal and poultry meal prices are steady and look to stay like that until soymeal prices decide to make a change.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
A quiet week with China closed for New Year on the 12th, so no new buying activity from there. Also, with only the dregs left to sell from the last fishing and most producers not taking any more advance orders, then we can all sit quietly and wait for the next exciting news.
The exploratory cruise for biomass analysis for the South of Peru is underway --- who knows but we may even get some fish landed in the South this year. With there expected to be no change in the rule banning fishing inside the 5 mile limit, no one is getting too excited about fishing in the South. Looking at numbers published by MSI Ceres this week, there really has not been much in the way of landings in the South since back in 2011. Other than 2020 when landing were zero, the 5 year prior had trouble getting over 50,000 m/t in total catch, which is only about 12,000 m/t of fishmeal --- not too important in the scale of things. (except to the fishmeal producers in the South)
Speculation about the next Northern quota is still in the 2.5 to 3.0 million m/t level, which is well within the range of quotas seen over the past 15 years.
MSI Ceres was also mentioning this week how difficult it is to find containers and shipping positions for fishmeal exports. Container rates are moving higher, congestion charges are being added. With most of the prebooked business for the next fishing season being done on a CNF destination price basis then some shippers may find that they underpriced the freight component and will have to absorb the higher freight costs ---- costs which could easily move even higher.
There has been no change in Peru fishmeal prices this week as buyers are out of the market for New Year and sellers have nothing to sell.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,720 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,465 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,490 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,540 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,780 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1350/1370 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1430/1450 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1470/1490 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1520/1540 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1570/1590 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1650/1750 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 1700/1800 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1750/1850 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1900/2000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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