Saturday, February 27, 2021

Weekly Report February 27, 2021

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 27, 2021

 

US soybeans were up in price again this week -- by about USD 8 to 10 m/t – but the last two days of the week were very up and down in prices with the range on some days being USD 10 to 12 m/t. Just like the soybean market can't decide what to do. China and South America are the main drivers of the soybean/soymeal markets with concern of China's consumption trying to push prices lower while worries about South American crop yields helped push markets up. There is talk in the market that soybeans may have reached their highs for the year and will now drop lower.

 

Corn prices were up a couple of dollars on the week but don't look to be going any higher as lower than expected US corn export sales add some weakness to the market. Some experts are comparing this year to 2008 when the grain/oilseed markets took a sudden dip lower in March – could it happen, who knows, but US corn exports are going to have pick up to keep any strength in the market.  

 

Wheat prices were lower on Friday as poor export sales and large world wheat crops combined to push wheat lower by USD 7 or 8 m/t on the day, but still up a little overall on the week, only about USD 1 m/t.

 

Comments in trade reports seemed to feel that grain/oilseed markets are more likely, for now, to be steady to higher than to move lower.  

 

 

 Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$43/44.00

Up $2.00

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$43/44.00

Up $2.00

X

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$44/45.00

Up $2.00

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$40/41.00

revised

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$40/41.00

Revised

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$45/47.00

Steady

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$44/45.00

Revised

x

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$58/59.00

Up $4.00

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$57/58.00

Up $4.00

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$32/33.00

Steady

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$31/32.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$33/34.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$49/50.00

Steady

X

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

Closed

 

X

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

Closed

 

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis)

$22/23.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$44/45.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$43/44.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis)

$18/19.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to India: Panamax

$37/38.00

Up $2.00

X

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$47/48.00

New

x

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis)

$40/41.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis)

$23/24.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$44/45.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$41/42.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$55/56.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off

$52/53.00

Up $3.00

X

Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off

$51/52.00

Up $3.00

X

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$32/33.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$22/23.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis)

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$40/41.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$45/46.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$22/23.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$41/42.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Brazil to China: Panamax

$46/47.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$47/48.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$47/48.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$50/51.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$35/36.00

Up $2.00

x

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: Panamax – round trip

$16/17.00

Steady

X

Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip

$45/45.50

Up $2.00

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$49/50.00

Up $2.00

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China: Panamax

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax

$45/46.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to India, Panamax

$39/40.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Up $5.00

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

X

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis)

$18/19.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$22/23.00

Up $5.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$54/55.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch)

$48/49.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$40/41.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Up $5.00

X

Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax

$35/36.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Up $5.00

x

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

1675

Down 23

X

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

1439

Down 276

X

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

2140

Down 192

X

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

1878

Up 365

X

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

1070

Up 169

x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2021/May 2021

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

 USD 290>>268 new crop

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

 USD 283/286

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 285/287

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 287/289

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 285/287

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 293/295

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 267/270

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 282/284

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 273/275

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 255/258

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 255/258

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 247/250

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 273/275

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 236>>227 new crop

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 270>>235 new crop   

X

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

 USD 281/283

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 265/268

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 266/269

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 267/270

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 243>>213 new crop

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 342/345

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 495/498

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 520/523

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot

 USD 528>>508 new crop

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 461>>448 new crop

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

 USD 541>>512 new crop

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 470>>445 new crop

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 542>>538

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 546>>521 new crop

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 520>>516 new crop

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 557/560

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 780/800 m/t

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 270/275 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 325>>300 m/t

x

 

 

 

 

The recent high prices for DDGS seem to have scared export buyers out of the market which has caused prices to slip lower in export ports. DDGS is said to be down as much as USD 15 m/t for positions out a couple of months.

 

While there may be a little weakness in both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal, this does not show in lower export prices until positions in May/June --- all the earlier export positions were sold weeks ago.

It looks like March/April export prices will be steady to higher but that some price improvement could slip into the market for later exports.

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 950/970 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF China

 USD 560/720 to Indonesia

 USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 980/1,000 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

Demand for meat and bone meal from Indonesia is still quite strong and, with no approval for Australian product yet, the local import price is staying quite firm. Reports say that the approval for Australia has been delayed by COVID19 travel restrictions since approval can only come after facilities inspection by Indonesian officials.

 

New Zealand animal protein prices look to be a little softer this week, but this is not expected to continue as supply is going to tighten.

 

In the USA, meat and bone meal moved a little higher on the week due to limited new supply tied to the winter storms in the US. If supply remains tight then prices for animal proteins could easily move higher --- even if soymeal weakens some.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

The IMARPE research sailing is said to have been delayed due to a COVID19 incident on the ship but it looks like the voyage is now under way.

 

According to trade reports, the export fishmeal logistics situation has not improved with vessel schedules through March said to be changing every day. The trade also mentions that there are a few lots of unsold fishmeal available --- not too sure if these are actually unsold or orders cancelled due to the logistics problems.

 

The trade is still talking about a 2.5 million m/t fishing quota for the next season with some more enthusiastic folks saying that the quota may even reach 3.0 mm/t.

 

One thing that the shipping logistics problems in Peru has accomplished is to bring down the port stock levels in China and to keep the prices in China quite steady.

 

Prices from Peru are steady this week with little or no new business being reported.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,740

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,500

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,515

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,560

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,815

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1370/1390 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1450/1470 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1520/1550 m/t

1520/1540 m/t

   67% protein 120 TVN

1570/1590 m/t

1570/1590 m/t

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1620/1640 m/t

1620/1640 m/t

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1670/1690 m/t

1650/1670 m/t

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1750/1850

 

   Fish oil, crude drums

1800/1900

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1850/1950

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2200/2300

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees, or affiliates.

 

Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon

 

 

 

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