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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 08, 2021
It was announced this week that shortly the last open trading pit for agricultural products at the Chicago Board of Trade (CME) will be closing. This last pit is one trading commodity options. So soon all will be done by electronics. While trading electronically probably makes much more sense it seems like a shame to have lost all the excitement of open outcry trading. Of course, most of the floor trading was closed back in 2015 so the excitement is pretty well long gone. It is just us old guys that will miss it.
Speaking of trading, market prices for grains and oilseeds had another strong up week this week: corn prices, mostly new crop, were up by about USD 25 m/t, soybeans were up by a similar amount while soymeal moved USD 17 m/t higher. US winter wheat was up by USD 11 to 12 m/t with spring wheat up by USD 12 or 13 m/t.
Most experts are saying that supplies of all old crop grains/oilseeds are getting tight and that possible weather problems may create trouble for new crops.
For corn there is very good demand – both for domestic and export business – with old crop supplies dwindling while new crop faces drought in some parts of the US.
Soybeans moved higher mainly of the tightness of old crop supplies but, like corn, there are some concerns over the new crop with too little rainfall in some major growing areas in the US.
Wheat too is being troubled by a lack of rainfall for the spring wheat crop and for finishing off the winter wheat crop.
With the strong rally in grains this week the new crop grains moved higher than the old crop which of bringing down the spread that ahs been seen in old crop/new crop prices. Old crop corn is still at a USD 43 m/t premium to new crop with old crop soybeans showing a USD 56 m/t premium to new crop.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $54/55.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $52/53.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $61/62.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $60/61.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $50/50.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $21/22.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $37/88.00 | Adjusted | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $37/38.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 3183 | Up 130 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 5006 | Up 110 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 2955 | Up 283 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2196 | Up 52 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | No info |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May 2021/July 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 321>>311 new crop | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 323/327 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 271>>266 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 277>>272 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 277>>274 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 294>>280 new crop | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 272/280 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 269>>263 new crop | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 278/280 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 265/268 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 255/258 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 265/268 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 327>>290 new crop | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 350>>313 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 288>>255 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 317>>278 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 322>>280 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 286>>268 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 272>>258 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 290>>268 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 276>>220 new crop | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 425>>408 new crop | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 490>>484 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 520>>514 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 500/492 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 463/455 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 495/497 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 470>>457 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 623>>573 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 565>>544 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 578>>561 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 562>>549 new crop | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 780>>760 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285/290 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 335>>325 m/t | X |
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Corn gluten meal prices were steady this week, but it was difficult to get offers as demand seems to be running even or ahead of supply. The export CGM market is still slow as container freight costs are sky-high. Export buyers are saying that, even with higher prices, soymeal works better in animal feed rations these days --- CGM prices are expected to be a little lower come September/October as the new crop corn comes online.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 535/555 m/t CNF Asia USD 635/645 m/t CNF Asia USD 960/980 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 560/580 m/t CNF China USD 540/560 to Indonesia USD 640/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 990/1,010 m/t CNF Asia |
Prices for all animal proteins moved higher this week as the increases in soymeal helped the move. There was also talk of limited supplies of meat and bone meal from both Australia and New Zealand that also gave some strength to prices. It should also be noted that Australia/New Zealand are experiencing the same container shortages that we are seeing in North America which is also increasing the ocean freight costs and pushing CNF prices higher.
There was a comment in the Jacobsen Report this week that a lack of containers for export is causing the prices of some animal proteins to weaken a little as producers are having to make their products more attractive for the domestic market. Of course, with soymeal up strongly again this week this has helped to strengthen or at least hold steady most animal protein prices in the US.
None of the trade reports this week were forecasting lower animal protein prices in the short term.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Even with some mini-bans the fishing in the North Central region of Peru continues at about 55,000 m/t of landings per day with a high of 66,500 m/t one day this week. The total catch up to Thursday was at 597,000 m/t which leaves about 1.9 million m/t to go.
Some new season business was reported this with prices said to be moving higher. A couple of trade reports did say that Super Prime is now at or above USD 1650 m/t FOB, which is quite a jump in price.
According to 2021 to April export numbers, the top four exporters – Copeinca, Tasa, Exalmar, Diamante – cover about 68% of the fishmeal exports. If you add in austral and Hayduk that is another 17% --- so the top 6 exporters do about 85% of the fishmeal business. According to the published numbers, total exports for the first four months were at 403,000 m/t with exports being made by 14 producers.
Thinking of China, that is closed for a 5 day May Day holiday, the situation with African Swine Fever doesn't seem to have gotten any worse so, for now, the sine industry is in a reasonably safe state so fishmeal consumption should continue.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,025 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,570 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,605 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,065 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1330/1350 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1400/1420 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1490/1500 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1550/1560 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1590/1600 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1620/1630 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1750/1850 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 1800/1900 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1850/1950 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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