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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 15, 2021
Quite an interesting week for prices again this week – between the USDA WASDE report and the problems in the Mississippi prices became extremely choppy. At the end of the week corn prices in the US were down by about USD 35 m/t with winter wheat down by USD 15 to 30 m/t and spring wheat down by about USD 21 m/t. Soymeal was down by close to USD 25 m/t while soybeans were the calmest in the market this week, only being down USD 4 to 6 m/t.
Corn buyers/traders/speculators spent the last couple of days getting out of their long corn futures positions which pushed the market lower and lower. Even with a bearish WASDE report one might have expected that the Mississippi river problems would have moved corn higher, but it sure didn't. However, with the river back open again, we will have to watch and see what Monday does to corn prices. There were comments in reports on Friday that the lower corn prices may just get China back very aggressively into the US corn market.
With the wheat market, comments were that prices had just gotten too high and all it took was just a little bearish news to get things rolling and prices dipping lower.
The general comment at the end of the week was that this week's drop in prices got the market to about where it should be and that the drop in prices is probably over. Will watch on Monday to see.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
The Mississippi River is open once again in the US, but it is reported that 1,058 barges, mostly grain barges, were held up behind the closure and this will take a few days to clear.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $53/54.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $53/54.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $54/55.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $53/54.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $56/57.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $50/50.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $21/22.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $23/24.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $37/88.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 3183 | Down 106 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 4549 | Down 457 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 3017 | Up 62 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2283 | Up 87 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1259 |
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Year to date change in ocean freight rates per m/t – selected origins and destinations.
Extract from May 13 US Grains Council Market Perspectives Report
| Origin | Destination | Current freight per m/t | Increase year to date per m/t | Percentage increase |
| Panamax/ Supramax |
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| US Gulf | China | 66.00 | 32.50 | 97.0 |
| US PNW |
| 38.75 | 21.75 | 127.9 |
| Argentina |
| 62.00 | 36.50 | 143.1 |
| Brazil |
| 57.00 | 32.00 | 128.0 |
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| Europe |
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| US Gulf |
| 26.00 | 13.50 | 108.0 |
| Argentina |
| 24.50 | 11.00 | 81.5 |
| Brazil |
| 28.50 | 6.00 | 26.7 |
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| Egypt |
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| US Gulf |
| 52.50 | 30.00 | 133.3 |
| US PNW |
| 51.00 | 28.90 | 130.8 |
| Argentina |
| 34.50 | 17.00 | 97.1 |
| Brazil |
| 39.50 | 15.00 | 61.2 |
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| Handysized
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| Morocco |
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| US Gulf |
| 50.50 | 18.00 | 55.4 |
| US Lakes |
| 55.00 | 13.40 | 32.2 |
| Argentina |
| 28.50 | No info |
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| Brazil |
| 35.50 | 9.00 | 34.0 |
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@ US Grains Council, O'Neil Commodity Consulting, World Perspectives
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2021/August 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 297>>291 new crop | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 295/298 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 271>>266 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 277>>271 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 279>>270 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 299/301 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 282/285 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 273>>267 new crop | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 287/289 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 257>>252 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 257/260 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 265/268 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 294>>265 new crop | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 313>>274 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 258>>251 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 288>>266 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 326>>274 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 298>>274 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 296>>273 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 301>>271 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 271>>220 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 391>>359 new crop | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 474/478 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 504/508 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 498/502 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 441/445 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 491/494 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 449/452 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 620>>564 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 559>>531 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 568/571 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 573>>561 new crop | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 780>>760 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285/290 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 315>>305 m/t | X |
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Corn prices have been jumping higher then slipping lower then jumping again but this has not had too much effect on corn byproduct prices --- byproducts, being a smaller part of the market, just seem to be able to follow its own price direction.
Trade reports at the end of the week seem to be looking for steady prices in the near term.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 535/555 m/t CNF Asia USD 635/645 m/t CNF Asia USD 960/980 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 560/580 m/t CNF China USD 540/560 to Indonesia USD 640/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 990/1,010 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices to major markets in Asia were very steady this week but with Ramadan just having ended there could be a pickup in demand this next week. So far, the strong increases in soybean prices has not pushed animal protein prices higher. Although, very strong container freight rates have moved CIF prices higher.
Supplies of Meat and Bone meal are increasing due to an increase in slaughter much of which is related to increased export meat demand from China due to African Swine Fever.
USA domestic prices were also steady this week and all seemed to avoid all the up and down price action that has been seen with soymeal. A high level of supply for animal proteins seems to be enough to keep a lid on the market.
There was some talk in the trade reports of higher prices for animal proteins, MBM in particular, once logistics problems all get sorted out and major export buyers get back into the market.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the north/central area of Peru is still quite good, although the juvenile fish level is still quite high at about 23 to 35% -- meaning that more fishing bans are expected. The catch to the 13th of May is up to 946,000 m/t with the daily catch ranging from 43,000 m/t to 56,000 m/t. The balance to full quota is not at about 1.55 million m/t.
Trade reports say that business is very quiet, but price do seem to have moved higher on low sales volume. Sales to date are getting very close to 400,000 m/t of fishmeal which is almost 66% of the production for the full quota of 2.5 mm/t of fish.
The MSI Ceres report this week was mentioning the talk in the trade in Peru that the fishing quota could be increased --- if it happens, this would be the first ever quota increase after fishing started. MSI Ceres doesn't think that it is too likely.
Reports say that fishmeal stocks in China are quite high due to lower demand due to African Swine Fever and a slower start to the aquaculture season. Trade reports feel that stocks will continue to grow which could easily push prices in China lower and also affect Peru export prices for any new business.
Peru exports of fishmeal to the end of April look to be at 507,000 m/t with 88% - 444,000 m/t – going to China and 96% going to the four major Asian markets: China, Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,050 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,515 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,615 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,665 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,100 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1430/1450 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1500/1520 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1590/1600 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1650/1660 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1690/1700 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1720/1730 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1950/2050 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2000/2100 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2150 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2300/2400 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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