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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 12, 2021
As usual it was another interesting and exciting week in the grain/oilseed business. New crop corn prices were down by USD 8 to 10 m/t, while soybean futures for July were down by about USD 27 m/t and for August down by USD 20 m/t. US soymeal prices for July – September were down by as much as USD 14 m/t. US spring wheat was very week dropping by USD almost USD 17 m/t with winter wheat being steady to USD 3 m/t lower.
Much of the weakness in US corn and soybeans was caused by concerns over what may happen with the current EPA biofuel blending mandates. However, improving weather forecasts for the corn/soybean areas also helped to push prices lower. Looks like some of the driest of areas in the US may actually see some rainfall. After the USD WASDE report, most had expected corn to move higher but that was stopped by the rainfall. While old crop/new crop corn prices are getting a little closer together, we still have close to a USD 35 m/t premium for old crop corn and almost USD 40 m/t for old crop soybeans.
The expected rainfall also helped to move US spring wheat lower --- nothing like a little rain to improve crop growth and get expected yields up where they should be. Of course, we are still a long way away from the spring wheat harvest so much can still happen.
The US winter wheat harvest is just picking up with 6% of the soft winter and 3% of the hard winter being harvested.
Russia's grain export taxes for June 17 to 22 are now: wheat USD 33.30 m/t, corn USD 48.20 m/t and barley at USD 39.60 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $54/55.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $54/55.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $52/53.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $53/54.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $56/57.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $56/57.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $65/66.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $64/65.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $50/50.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $59/60.00 | steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $45/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 2857 | Up 385 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3346 | Up 681 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 3302 | Up 406 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2592 | Up 151 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1355 | Up 19 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2021/September 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 289>>281 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 284/287 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/258 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 256/259 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 261/264 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 259/261 new crop | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 275/279 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 254/258 new crop | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 254/257 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 260/263 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 248/252 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 251/254 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 299>>285 new crop | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 335>>301 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 248/251 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 279>>269 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 345>>256 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 298>>273 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 298>>271 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 294>>270 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 267>>220 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 406>>367 new crop | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 423/432 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 458/467 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 467/472 all new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 400/409 all new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 467/473 all new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 415/420 all new crop | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 580>>560 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 531/540 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 579>>563 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 573>>550 new crop | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 740/750 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 250/255 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 270/275 m/t | x |
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High levels of ethanol production continue to fill the US market with DDGS. Ethanol production is at its highest level in about a year which just keeps spinning off more and more DDGS. According to trade reports DDGS prices have fallen by 20% or so in the past month. These days, DDGS looks to be a much better buy for animal feed use than high priced corn.
US corn gluten meal was also a little lower this week and some business was reported being done into Egypt – we have not seen any Egypt business in months due to the very high CGM prices. Normally by this time of year Egypt would have imported close to 60,000 m/t but this year the total is only at 10,000 m/t or so.
Corn gluten feed prices were steady on the week.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 535/555 m/t CNF Asia USD 635/645 m/t CNF Asia USD 960/980 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 580/600 m/t CNF China USD 540/560 to Indonesia USD 660/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1,020 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into most of Asia, except Indonesia, moved higher this week. Supplies of MBM from both Australia and New Zealand are a little tight while demand is steady which certainly helped to move CNF prices a little higher.
Domestic prices in the USA were also high which also add to the upward pressure on export prices. USA MBM blood meal and feather meal all moved a little higher.
According to the Jacobsen Report demand from the pet food industry for poultry meal has slacked off a bit causing a little weakness in poultry meal prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The catch in Peru was lower this week due to both local mini-bans and unfavorable fishing weather. The total landed is now up to 1.88 million m/t which leaves about 630,000 m/t to reach full quota and another six weeks in which to do it.
Trade reports continue to mention the high level of juvenile fish landed and the risk of more mini-bans. Some areas, like Chimbote and Chicama, having very high juvenile levels above 40%. These two areas are the main fishing areas with the entire Chimbote "region" representing about 58% of the total catch.
Trade reports show that Peru's fishmeal export prices are a little lower this week – probably due to the continued high level of the weekly catch and the situation that all existing business has been covered and producers should be getting in the mood to book more export business.
The situation in Peru has now moved from short fishmeal to long fishmeal. Makes one wonder if the market prices will keep slipping.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,055 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,515 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,625 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,665 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,085 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1410/1430 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1480/1500 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1530/1550 m/t | 1540/1560 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1590/1661 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1640/1660 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1690/1710 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1950/2050 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2000/2100 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2150 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2300/2400 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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