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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 19, 2021
Amazing what a little rain can do, as we have seen with grain/oilseed prices this week new crop corn prices dropped by close to USD 20 m/t with new crop soybeans down by about USD 45 m/t, soymeal down by USD 12 m/t and US winter wheat down by about USD 11 m/t.
Prices would have fallen even further but the market was full of bargain hunters on Friday which actually pushed the days prices up above the level from Thursday. All of this seems to have been caused by rain, rain and more rain – exactly where much of it was needed. Also, the weather forecasts for the rest of June look good for the new crops and the end of the winter crops.
There were some comments from experts that a little rainfall does not necessarily mean the end of the drought in parts of the corn belt and that things could get drier and prices could go higher once again. But isn't that exactly what the summer weather markets for grain are all about. This is the time of year for up and down weather reports, high volatility markets and days when you wish you weren't in the grain business.
USA export business for corn, sorghum, soybeans continue to charge along – due largely to China but also due to the Black Sea running out of supply of grains and US just filling in all the gaps.
Russia's grain export taxes for June 23 to 29 are now: wheat USD 38.10 m/t, corn USD 50.20 m/t and barley at USD 39.60 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $57/58.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $57/58.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $58/59.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $55/56.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $57/58.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $59/60.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $6.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Up $6.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $58/59.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $57/58.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $58/59.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $24/25.00 | Up $3.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $62/63.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $68/69.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $67/68.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Up $3.0 | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $50/50.50 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $40/41.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $22/23.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $47/49.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 3218 | Up 361 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 4029 | Up 683 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 3544 | Up 242 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2802 | Up 210 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1398 | Up 43 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2021/September 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 271/280 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 269/285 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 242/245 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 251/254 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 252/255 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 247/249 new crop | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 279/281 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 238/241 new crop | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 246/248 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 261/264 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 246/249 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 246/249 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 299>>268 new crop | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 322>>295 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 224/228 all new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 266>>245 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 287>>249 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 290>>260 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 290>>246 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 285>>243 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 250>>220 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 383>>332 new crop | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 429/432 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 464/467 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 467/472 all new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 402/409 all new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 478/481 all new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 422/430 all new crop | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 542>>520 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 514/501 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 525/532 all new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 573>>550 new crop | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 740/750 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 250/255 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 246/255 m/t | x |
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Even though the FOB prices for corn byproducts have moved lower this week the CNF prices don't reflect much of a drop due to the ever increasing freight costs.
Buyers in Egypt were back in the market for corn gluten meal this week – this is the first time in many weeks. The very high price for CGM so far in 2021 had kept Egyptian buyers out of the market as soymeal was much more cost effective but CGM has slipped a little lower, so buyers are inching back into the market. Normally Egypt would import 10 to 12,000 m/t of CGM per months but in 5 months have only imported about 11,000 m/t in total.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 535/555 m/t CNF Asia USD 635/645 m/t CNF Asia USD 960/980 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 580/600 m/t CNF China USD 540/560 to Indonesia USD 660/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1,020 m/t CNF Asia |
Reports from Asia say the meat and bone meal prices are looking to move higher due to limited supply coming to market from Australia. Experts say that supply will probably be tight for a few months which may keep MBM prices from following soymeal lower.
Most trade comments are that, at least in the export market, there should be little or no weakness in animal protein prices on a FOB basis but that continued higher freight rates will probably push CNF prices up – especially for shipments in containers as the container logistics problems are just not getting any better.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The catch numbers this week dropped down to 91,500 m/t caused by mini-bans and bad fishing weather. The total landed is not just a shade over 2.0 million m/t which leaves about 500,000 m/t to go until the quota expires on July 31. So that is about six weeks to go. The juvenile fish level is still very high at 42% on average which should mean that there will be more mini-bans on fishing.
It was mentioned in trade reports that the number of vessels fishing has fallen of as some have now caught their full quota.
The fishing quota for the South of Peru – at 409,000 m/t – ends on June 30 with only about 145,000 m/t landed since February. The new quota for July to December should be issued soon but this period is not such a good time for catch in the south – some years good but most years not so good.
Trade reports from China say that importers are trying to sell off existing old stock fishmeal to make room for the new shipments from Peru that will start to arrive in July. Old stock prices are said to quite weak.
Prices from Peru are steady this week, although prices in Europe dropped a little but this may have just been due to the changing value of the USD.
No one seems to be forecasting lower prices for fishmeal, but we will have to see as we get closer to the end of the season and perhaps full quota.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,035 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,615 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,655 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,065 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1410/1430 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1480/1500 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1530/1550 m/t | 1530/1550 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1580/1600 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1630/1650 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1680/1700 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1950/2050 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2000/2100 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2150 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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