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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 10, 2021
It was another week of lower prices for all US grains and oilseeds and we haven't even seen the USDA WASDE report yet – not until July12. Perhaps the WASDE will shake things up even more.
Corn prices dropped by about USD 24 m/t with soybeans down by as much as USD 25 m/t and soymeal down by more that USD 30 m/t. US winter wheat was down by USD 10 to 14 m/t with spring wheat down by close to USD 10 m/t. Although, both soybeans and soymeal did have an up day on Friday which stopped prices from going even lower.
It was the weather and the rainfall in the USA that pushed prices lower again this week – more rainfall is expected over the weekend and then things will get back to sunny weather and growing crops.
The big question today is what will the USDA WASDE report bring on Monday and will it be in line with all the trade estimates. Reading a number of trade report this weekend, many experts seem to be expecting a bullish WASDE report for corn and soybeans – so perhaps we will see a rally early in the week.
Russian export tax – July 14 to 20 – wheat USD 39.30 m/t – down USD 1.90, barley USD 36.90 m/t – down USD 0.10 m/t and corn USD 52.20 m/t – up USD 1.60 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
With the very sudden changes in grain freight rates, it is difficult to get accurate rates for every destination. Some of the rates are probably too low this week due to a lack of trading to particular destinations. However, freight rates to most used destinations are thought to be accurate.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $69/70.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $69/70.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $70/71.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $66/67.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $68/69.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $69/70.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $85/86.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $84/85.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Adjusted | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | No price |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $65/66.00 | Up $6.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $66/67.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Adjusted | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Adjusted | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $51/52.00 | Adjusted | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $9.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $62/63.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $50/50.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Adjusted | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Adjusted | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $66/67.00 | Adjusted | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $59/60.00 | Adjusted | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $29/30.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $36/37.00 | Up $6.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 3300 | Up 15 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3735 | Up 225 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 4269 | Down 168 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2891 | Down 44 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1651 | Up 96 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2021/October 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 247/262 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 272/281 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 224/227 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 233/236 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 234/238 new crop | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 238/240 new crop | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 275/285 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 219/222 new crop | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 228/230 new crop | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 251/254 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 215/218 new crop | x |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 241/244 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 268>>245 new crop | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 275>>262 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 205/217 all new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 233/236=7 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 298>>242 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 260>>234 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 273>>234 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 263>>230 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 251>>220 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 349>>312 new crop | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 427>>405 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 467>>445 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 468/471 all new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 410>>390 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 471/474 all new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 435>>409 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 537>>518 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 519>>514 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 537/541 all new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 572>>561 new crop | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 610/630 m/t Sept | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 185/195 m/t Sept | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215/225 m/t Sept | x |
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This was certainly a week of falling prices for corn byproducts as everything dropped lower as the market started to look much more at September corn prices. July prices had held the market up for a while but now that July (and part of August) is sold out we have to look at what September will bring.
With soymeal prices down by about USD 30 m/t on the week it is easy to see why byproducts also dropped like stones.
Of course, the problem is that while FOB prices move lower the freight is moving higher quickly which is offsetting a good deal of the price drop for importers.
The US Grains Council report this week mentioned that DDGS prices in the US Gulf are down by close to USD 40 m/t but that CNF prices into Asia are only down by a couple of dollars. As mentioned above, freight increases are eating up any FOB price savings.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 535/555 m/t CNF Asia USD 635/645 m/t CNF Asia USD 960/980 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 570/590 m/t CNF China USD 540/560 to Indonesia USD 680/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 990/1,010 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices to Asia from the USA slipped a little this week as lower soymeal prices pressed the market. No one much wants to pay a big premium for animal protein over vegetable protein.
Australia and New Zealand prices for animal proteins were steady on the week but reports are that buyers are looking for lower prices – at least USD 25 m/t lower.
In the USA domestic market, it was a short week due to the Monday holiday and business was quite slow as everyone seemed to book needs before the holiday. Prices in the US were steady in most cases, but experts do feel that there will be lower prices in days to come as falling soymeal prices become more attractive.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Here we are, getting closer and closer to the quota every week. Fishing this past week has been lower with the total to Thursday only reaching 45,500 m/t but the total overall no stands at 2.384 million m/t – only 125,000 m/t to full quota and close to 3 weeks to go. We are now at just over 95% of the quota landed – probably better than some experts had forecasted.
Prices seem to be steady, but the supply of Super Prime is zero and Prime too is running low. While FOB Peru prices are steady the CNF Asia prices continue to climb as container freight rate just won't stop rushing higher. MSI Ceres was mentioning this week that some shipments are being pushed off a few weeks as there are just not enough containers on hand to meet the demand. It is hoped that he container situation will be improved for the next fishing season with shipments expected to begin in December.
There has been some fishing in the south on the new 409,000 m/t quota with about 2,600 m/t of catch reported since the quota was opened on July 05.
The trade estimates that about 540,000 m/t of fishmeal has been sold which will leave about 50,000 m/t left for business until December --- or more if fishing in the south suddenly takes off. There has been some talk about lower prices for the November fishing season but that is still a long way off.
The latest numbers on fishmeal imports for China in 2021 are at 1.58 million up from last years imports of 1.42 mm/t.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,975 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,520 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,620 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,660 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,960 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1380/1400 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1520/1540 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1570/1590 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1620/1640 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2100 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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