Weekly Report -- July 31, 2021

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 31, 2021

 

The main part of my Weekly Report is sent out on the « FeedBurner » system of Google but it seems there will be some changes to the system that may affect email forwarding. I don't know all the details yet but hope that it wont cause serious problems.

 

 

I guess that you could say that this week was calmer than recent weeks --- time for us all to catch our breath. US corn prices were unchanged on the week with soybeans also unchanged, US soymeal was down by a couple of dollars m/t but wheat went against the flow and moved higher.

 

US winter and spring wheat was USD 7 to 10 m/t higher. Most of the increase was due to crop reports that suggest US wheat yields may be well below what had been expected --- could be the lowest yields in 20 years – all due to the drought in the wheat growing areas of the US.

 

There is also some concern about the yields of corn and soybeans but there are no « official » numbers on those yields yet.

 

While things are quiet the feeling among experts seems to be that prices could move higher if the yields are developing as poorly as some expect.

 

 

Russian export tax – August 05 to August 10 – wheat USD 31.40 m/t – no change, barley USD 38.50 m/t – no change and corn USD 49.60 m/t – down USD 0.30 m/t.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $2.00	X
US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $2.00	X
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t	$65/66.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)	$65/66.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t	$66/67.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$62/63.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)	$65/66.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$65/66.00	Steady	X
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$69/70.00	Up $3.00	X
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t	No price		X
US Gulf to India: Panamax	$67/68.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax	$68/69.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$81/82.00	Steady	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$80/81.00	Steady	X
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t	$54/55.00	Steady	X
US PNW Egypt: Panamax	$65/66.00	Steady	X
US PNW Philippines: Panamax	$49/50.00	Steady	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$43/44.00	Down $1.00	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$43/44.00	Down $1.00	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	No price		X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$65/66.00	Up $1.00	X
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t	$65/66.00	Steady	X
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t	$68/69.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis)	$25/26.00	Up $4.00	X
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t	$68/69.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to China: Panamax	$68/69.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis)	$30/31.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to India: Panamax	$59/60.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax	$62/63.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis)	$51/52.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis)	$23/24.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax	$61/62.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$41/42.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$59/60.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off	$71/72.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off	$70/71.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax	$39/40.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Europe: Panamax	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis)	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax	$57/58.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax	$64/65.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Iran: Panamax	$61/62.00	Steady	X
Argentina to India: Panamax	$67/68.00	Up $6.00	X
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Spain: Panamax	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t	$58/59.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to China: Panamax	$65/66.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Japan: Panamax	$64/65.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax	$69/70.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Europe: Panamax	$35/36.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$36/37.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Iran: Panamax	$61/62.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$59/60.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Spain: Panamax	$35/36.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax	$49/50.00	Up $1.00	X
Australia to China: Panamax – round trip	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	X
Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip	$46/46.50	Steady	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax	$49/50.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to China: Panamax	$68/69.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax	$66/67.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax	$68/69.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to India, Panamax	$58/59.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$48/49.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch)	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -	$39/40.00	Up $3.00	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis)	$29/30.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)	$35/36.00	Up $3.00	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$47/48.00	Steady	X
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$55/56.00	Up $3.00	X
Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch)	$50/51.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax	$50/51.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch)	$42/43.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax	$50/51.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax	$56/57.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$36/37.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	X
Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)	3292	Up 93	X
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)	4306	Up 391	X
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)	3304	Down 224	X
Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT)	2945	up 74	X
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)	1760	Up 24	X

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2021/October 2021

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf	USD 281/302	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf	USD 297/307	X
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 244/251	X
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 255/258	X
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 249/252	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 262/265	X
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver	USD 275/285	X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 232/239	X
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 249/252	X
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river	USD 255/262	X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 220/224	X
Barley, feed, Australia	USD 242/245	X
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA	USD 280>>254 new crop	x
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 291>>278 new crop	X
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 225/238	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 258/265	X
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic	USD 310>>238 new crop	X
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 273>>254 new crop	X
Corn, FOB Russia	USD 270>>255 new crop	X
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t	USD 269>>247 new crop	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 237>>220 new crop	X
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 342>>318 new crop	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 434>>413 new crop	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 464>>443 new crop	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot	USD 461/466	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 395>>380 new crop	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot	USD 463/466	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil	USD 403/411	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 552>>532 new crop	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 527/532	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 550/555	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 574>>568 new crop	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD 620/640 m/t October	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD 205/215 m/t October	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD 245/265 m/t	x

 

Trade reports this week are showing a drop in corn gluten meal prices for export – a drop of at least USD 25 m/t is seen from most producers. However, there was some talk that some facilities will be closing down for summer pre-harvest maintenance which could add some upward pressure on all corn by product prices.

 

DDGS export prices were up again this week due to good export demand and a drop in production.

 

As we have been saying every week – freight prices continue higher for container shipments and there seems to be never-ending problems with getting full lots shipped. There is just too much demand for container freight along with too few vessels with space available and a lack of containers. The container freight logistics problems and high prices don't look to be going away for a few months.

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Australian MBM 45% protein    Australian MBM 50% protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia  USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein       USA Feathermeal, 80% protein    USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 570/590 m/t CNF China  USD 530/550 to Indonesia  USD 680/720 m/t CNF Asia  USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 990/1010 m/t CNF Asia

 

Meat and bone meal prices to major buyers in Asia look to be moving a little higher as both New Zealand and Australia see supplies of animal proteins getting tighter. The jump in poultry meal price in Australia is said to be due to increased demand from the pet food industry.

 

Not much new in USA animal protein prices with end-users looking for lower pries due to a fall in soymeal prices but producers don't much want to move lower. It was mentioned that the continued lack of demand in the US from the pet food folks could create more weakness in prices, especially for poultry meal.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

So, here we are at the end of the North/Central fishing season with the unofficial total catch at 2.44 million m/t --- fishmeal at 540,000 m/t and fishoil at 93,000 m/t. Total catch is at 97.3% of quota – no one is going to complain about that level of catch as it is certainly higher than many had expected at the start of fishing.

 

There is no change in prices this week and little or no business being done --- most producers are sold out. The unsold stocks, which look to be about 40,000 m/t, are in few hands and tend to mainly be of lower grade fishmeal.

 

Shipping out of Peru in containers is still a logistics nightmare with shipments being delayed or split or left on the quay. Everyone is having logistics problems due to a shortage of containers and of container vessels.

 

The talk in the trade is that the next fishing season will be late October/early November with the first new-stock fishmeal shipping in late December 2021 or early January 2022.

 

There was some comment in the trade that there may be an IMARPE research cruise in late August, but this is still just rumor.

 

Looking at who is producing the fishmeal, the top six producers in Peru represent 91% of total production with the two largest producers - Tasa and Copeinca - being at 43% of total.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,980
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,520
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,610
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,650
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,950

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65/66 protein	1360/1380 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1430/1450 m/t
67% protein 150 TVN	1480/1500 m/t	1520/1540 m/t
67% protein 120 TVN	1530/1550 m/t	1570/1590 m/t
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1580/1600 m/t	1620/1640 m/t
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1660/1680 m/t	1650/1670 m/t
Fish oil, crude bulk	2000/2100
Fish oil, crude drums	2050/2150
Fish oil, flexi tank	2100/2200
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2500/2600

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees, or affiliates.

 

Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon