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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 21, 2021
How is that for an exciting week in the US grain business – scary times for speculators in the grain futures business. Corn prices dropped by about USD 14 m/t, soybeans down by more than USD 25 m/t, soymeal not too bad as only down by USD 5 m/t, winter wheat down by at least USD 15 m/t and US spring wheat down by about USD 10 m/t.
Much of the weakness in US prices this week was said to be due to improved chances of rainfall in very dry corn/soybean areas. Once the prices started to move lower in the futures markets, the computer programs took over and either sold long positions to protect profits or sold short to make more. There is nothing like a computer/weather driven week in the market --- especially if you are on the right side.
The feeling in the press is that the Afghan situation added to the fear in the market which also helped to push futures prices lower. Perhaps by Monday all will have calmed down and grain prices will move higher again. It is impossible to know for sure as much of daily the market activity has very little to do with agriculture any more --- but then it has been like that for years.
Russian export tax – August 25 to August 31 – wheat USD 31.70 m/t – up USD 1.30, barley USD 26.10 m/t – up USD 0.50 m/t and corn USD 49.60 m/t – unchanged.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $63/64.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $66/67.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $82/83.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $81/82.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | No price |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $65/66.00 | Up $6.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $72/73.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $71/72.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $45/45.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 4092 | Up 526 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 5997 | Up 1231 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 3785 | Up 219 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 3276 | Up 178 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1878 | Up 62 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2021/November 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 281/319 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 308/318 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 280/285 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 296/300 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 293/302 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 295/298 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 280/290 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 276/279 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 274/277 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 256/262 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 252/255 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 252/257 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 256>>251 new crop | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 283>>277 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 217/232 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 257/267 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 252/256 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 264/269 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 264/268 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 260/263 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 220/227 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 328>>309 new crop | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 408/412 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 443/447 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 466/470 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 388/392 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 467/471 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 407/413 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 515/518 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 522/526 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 534/538 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 577/580 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 680/700 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/240 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265/280 m/t | x |
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USA DDGS prices moved higher again this week as last weeks drop in prices seemed to get buyers excited. Ethanol production is down again this week which will tighten supply of DDGS a bit.
Export prices for DDGS for later in the year were up by about USD 20 m/t with the same being seen for corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed. USA domestic transportation rates were said to be up by at least USD 15 m/t which certainly helped to push export prices higher.
With corn and soybeans finishing the week down quite strongly, we could see some weakness in corn byproducts next week.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 595/615 m/t CNF China USD 540/560 to Indonesia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 970/990 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices in Asia moved a little higher this week due mainly to a tightening of supply from New Zealand and Australia and due to the closing of several Chinese ports due to COVID restrictions. Sellers are having to add in some safety dollars to their prices because risks of delay or higher freight are very possible.
The USA domestic market is reported to be slipping a little in price as delays in export shipments are causing a backup in supply in the interior. The container logistics situation is causing problems for everyone.
Most comments this week were that animal protein prices should move a little lower in coming weeks as the supply continues to build but export shipments remain slow.
It was announced this week that the EU has officially approved the feeding of processed animal proteins (PAPs) to non-ruminant farm animals --- this use, except for fish feed, has been banned since 2001 due to BSE (mad cow). This change in rules may mean that the supply of animal proteins from the EU to Asia will drop which could push animal protein prices higher as the supply drops.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There was no fishing in the South of Peru this week.
Business is very slow with only some small sales of lower quality, left-over fishmeal reported.
MSI Ceres mentioned again this week that the container logistics situation is terrible due to "delays/cancellations/rollovers/freight increases/new surcharges" --- nothing is easy with container shipments these days. It also looks like COVID19 in China has caused containers to pile up in all the ports --- it is tough to find empty containers for shipment when most are piled up in China.
There are no reports of new sales for the next season buyers are not in the mood to buy and sellers certainly not willing to commit to prices two or three months out ---- just too many high risk variables for sellers.
The latest report on expected weather conditions up to the end of November show little or no chance for any El Nino events --- all looks quite normal. No one is forecasting any weather upset for the next fishing season.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,975 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,510 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,640 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,945 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1380/1400 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1620/1640 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1660/1680 m/t | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2100 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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