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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 07, 2021
In the US, wheat was the strongest item this week as all wheat moved higher --- winter wheat was up as much as USD 13 m/t with spring wheat up by about USD 5 m/t. Corn prices too were up, also by about USD 5 m/t while new crop US soybeans dropped by about USD 5 m/t.
There wasn't much US cause for the wheat rally but, as all international wheat prices moved higher, the US followed along.
While soybean prices were lower on the week there was a rally on Friday that kept prices from going lower --- that Friday rally was said to be based on rumored new export soybean business to China. USA soybeans are currently the lowest priced so it should keep the Chinese looking to the USA. And, Brazil soybean yields look to be lower than expected which may hold prices up, but Brazil is still the most expensive soybean in the world market.
Like soybeans, much of the positive news for corn was related to expected new sales to China. Also, the weather is improving in a good section of the corn belt in the US which may just add a little increased risk of lower prices to the corn market.
This coming week is the USDA-WASDE week on Thursday August 12, so prices may be up and down and all over as buyers/sellers adjust their positions for whatever the WASDE will say.
Russian export tax – August 11 to August 17 – wheat USD 31.00 m/t – down USD 0.40, barley USD 27.00 m/t – down USD 11.50 m/t and corn USD 49.60 m/t – unchanged.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $61/62.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $63/64.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $66/67.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $66/67.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | No price |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $59/60.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $70/71.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $69/70.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $46/46.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 3371 | Up 79 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 4359 | Up 53 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 3449 | Up 145 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 3010 | up 65 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1776 | Up 16 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2021/October 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 286/312 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 309/321 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 266/277 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 272/275 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 262/272 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 275/278 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 279/290 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 259/266 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 263/266 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 251/254 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 239/245 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | No prices | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 258/263 new crop | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 281/284 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 227/239 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 267/272 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | No prices | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 270>>256 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 270>>251 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 269>>252 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 240>>220 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 337>>316 new crop | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 438>>412 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 468>>442 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 458/461 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 403>>386 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 463/466 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 439>>416 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 551>>531 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 529/537 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 553/558 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 572/575 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 650/670 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190/200 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 245/265 m/t | x |
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Stronger prices for DDGS seem to have scared off export buyers so business has calmed down. A couple of trade reports did say that DDGS prices will probably move in a narrow plus/minus range for the next few weeks until something new happens.
The Jacobsen Report this week had corn gluten meal steady to a little lower in most markets with the big export factor still being container logistics and freight prices. Buyers are seeing their export shipments being broken into smaller lots as ship space is very limited. Even small 8 to 10 container lots are getting broken into 2 to 3 lots as there is so little vessel room. One problem for buyers is that this pushes local costs higher as many costs are the same no matter the quantity arriving – so, the CNF cost per m/t increases.
No one is talking about lower prices for now but there are hopes that October could see some price easing.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 580/600 m/t CNF China USD 530/550 to Indonesia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 970/990 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into China are just a little higher this week and it is reported that there were some higher MBM price seen into Indonesia. Most market experts do not feel prices are going higher in the short term as demand has slacked off from the aquafeed sector but there does seem to be new demand for poultry meal from the pet food industry.
In the US domestic market, it is reported that MBM prices are under pressure and could move lower which should lower export prices ---- except that container freight keeps moving higher. Supplies of all animal protein in the US are very good – especially for poultry meal where pet food demand is still low and supplies are high.
For now, the price trend seems to be steady to lower.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The final total for the North/Central fishing looks to be at 2.44 million m/t – 97.4% of the total quota – which gives a final estimated fishmeal production of 581,700 m/t. Not at all bad for the industry as it is now almost all sold. Looking at the total landings, about 63.2% was landed in the Chimbote region with 23.8% in the Center region, 4.8% in Paita region and 8.3% in Pisco region.
Fishing in the south of Peru is now at 19,000 m/t against the quota of 409,000 m/t – this quota runs until December 31, 2021.
New business is very limited in Peru as there is not much left to sell. MSI Ceres mentioned this week that there could be some available container space for September but with nothing left to sell this is not exciting news for fishmeal folks.
Trade reports say that there has been very little interest so far in booking any of the next quota for December/ January --- part of the problem for sellers is working out what the container freight levels may be for the next season --- higher or lower or who knows. Freight is all a guess right now but for sellers it is a very risky guess when selling CNF. Most sellers are not much interested in selling so far in advance, but then buyers are not too enthusiastic about buying. Perhaps we will see more activity come September
.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,990 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,510 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,610 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,640 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,960 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1380/1400 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1600/1620 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1670/1680 m/t | 1630/1650 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2100 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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