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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 23, 2021
USA wheat prices were strong this week with winter wheat up by USD 8 to 10 m/t and spring wheat up by even more at about USD 15 m/t higher. Corn prices were up by about USD 5 m/t and soymeal was up by USD 10 or 11 m/t, but soybeans didn't change at all on the week.
The rally in spring wheat seems to be due to interesting action by ADM as they cancelled a whole pile of futures deliverable wheat receipts ---- the trade has speculated that ADM would rather hold on to the wheat than deliver against futures contracts. Of course, world wheat prices were also higher on the week which helped to move USA prices up.
The higher soymeal prices are said to being pushed along by the very good export numbers for soymeal. The world seems to be looking for a bigger supply of protein and these days soymeal is the most competitive.
There didn't seem to be much reason for corn prices to move higher this week --- nothing at all in the news to push USA prices in any direction.
Russian export tax – October 27 to November 02 – wheat USD 67.00 m/t – up USD 5.70, barley USD 42.60 m/t – down USD 3.30 m/t and corn USD 49.70 m/t – up USD 1.30 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $72/73.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $72/73.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $73/74.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $69/70.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $71/72.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $73/74.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $89/90.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $88/89.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $26/27.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $72/73.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $78/79.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $77/78.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $34/35.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $63/64.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – (no Handisize included) | 4410 | Down 444 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 6205 | Down 1562 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 4327 | Up 262 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 3584 | Up 8 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 2057 | Up36 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2021/January 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 330>>327 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 351/353 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 311/314 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 318/321 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 317/320 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 326/328 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 288/293 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 295/300 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 298>>281 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 275/278 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 274/277 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 275/278 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 266>>253 January | C |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 287>>279 January | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 245/255 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 267/270 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 296/298 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 272/275 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 270/273 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 271/274 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 220/225 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 295>>280 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 407>>390 January | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 442>>425 January | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 459/463 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 390>>370 February | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 434/437 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 383>>365 February | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 494>>490 January | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 533>>468 February | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 514>>471 February | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 567/575 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 695/705 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/240 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265/275 m/t | x |
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USA export prices for all corn byproducts are steady to higher this week but, according to market prices, corn gluten meal seems to have made a jump higher which corn gluten feed and DDGS seemed to be quite steady.
Slightly higher soymeal prices this week and a little strength in corn may move prices higher for next week.
Export demand for all corn byproducts is said to be limited this week as major buyers in Asia seem to find the prices all too high.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 600/620 m/t CNF China USD 570/610 to Indonesia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
Prices this week were steady to slightly higher --- CNF Asia prices were pushed a little higher by container freight rates and are expected to move even higher as there seems to be no near term weakness in container freight prices --- experts are saying that container supply could be tight well into 2022, which should keep rates firm.
Meat and bone meal supply out of Australia and New Zealand is also a little short of export demand which is keeping prices steady to about USD 10 m/t higher.
USA domestic prices continue to slide a little lower due to the export difficulties and the increase in available animal protein in the local US market. As long as the export shipping difficulties continue it is expected that domestic USA prices will stay soft. Sellers are having to keep prices low just to move animal proteins into the market in order to reduce stocks on hand.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
MSI Ceres reported this week that the Peru pre-sales of fishmeal may be up to 85,000 m/t or perhaps even higher. Well, there does seem to have been a few buyers in the market, fishmeal sellers have been keeping very quiet and are not pushing for new export business. From a seller's point of view there are just too many "unknowns" in the market these days --- new quotas, freight costs, container availability and even concerns about new government actions in Peru. Many things to worry about for sellers.
Prices are steady to a little bit higher but not much new business is being done.
The IMARPE research cruise is continuing and we are waiting on "tenterhooks" for the results and the new quota.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,986 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,460 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,635 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,045 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1500/1520 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1560/1590 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1610/1630 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1660/1680 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1690/1710 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2400/2450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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