-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 12, 2022
Another week of major price changes --- nearby wheat prices were up as much as USD 30 m/t but not as much after July. Corn prices were steady nearby but up by abut USD 15 m/t late in 2022. Soymeal prices were up between USD 20 and 30 m/t while soybeans were up by close to USD 15 m/t.
Prices this week were driven by both the Ukraine/Russia situation and the new information in the USDA WASDE report. Other than wild changes in prices this week the pressure on the EU to raise its ban on GMO corn seemed to be about the biggest news. With Ukraine being a major GMO free corn supplier to the EU, it is going to be a difficult job for the EU to replace all that corn without allowing imports of GMO corn. Spain's government is said to have already asked the EU government for approval to import GMO corn. So far in the first 7 months of the 2021/22 crop year, the EU has imported close to 5.0 million m/t of Ukraine GMO free corn --- where will they replace that.
As to prices ---- still volatile until the Ukraine/Russia situation calms or ends.
March 16 to March 22, Russian export grain taxes are at: wheat USD 86.30 m/t – down USD 0.60, barley USD 77.40 m/t – up USD 5.10 m/t and corn USD 54.10 m/t – up USD 0.20 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $3.00 |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $3.00 |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $68/69.00 | Up $8.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $8.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $69/70.00 | Up $8.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $69/70.00 | Up $8.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $70/71.00 | Up $8.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $66/67.00 | Up $4.00 |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $72/73.00 | Up $8.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Up $9.00 |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $5.00 |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $5.00 |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Up $8.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Up $8.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Up $8.00 |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $5.00 |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $5.00 |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Up $5.00 |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Up $5.00 |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $64/65.00 | Up $3.00 |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Ports closed |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Ports closed |
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $28/29.00 | Up $3.00 |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $67/68.00 | Up $3.00 |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $3.00 |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $3.00 |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $55/56.00 | Up $4.00 |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Up $3.00 |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Up $4.00 |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Up $3.00 |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Up $4.00 |
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Up $7.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $7.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $5.00 |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $84/85.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $5.00 |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $6.00 |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $5.00 |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $5.00 |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Up $4.00 |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55/56.00 | Up $5.00 |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $7.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $7.00 |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $6.00 |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $68.69.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $84/85.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | No update |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | No update |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $55/56.00 | No update |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $49/50.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to East Med: Handi | $32/33.00 | No update |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster 3,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | No update |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster 3,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | No update |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster 3,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | No update |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | No update |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $56/57.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax | $51/52.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $32/33.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Morocco: Handi | $37/38.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: Handi | $35/36.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax | $32/33.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Libya: Handi | $39/40.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $58/59.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $58/59.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $28/29.00 | No update |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $61/62.00 | No update |
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – (no Handisize included) | 2718 | Up 570 |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1635 | Up 1041 |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 3187 | Up 402 |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2939 | Up 353 |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1548 | Up 105 |
|
|
|
|
| Global Container Index - @Freightos | 9777 | Up 20 |
| (Index on Jan 01, 2021, was at $3452) |
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2022/June 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 460>>438 July |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 474>>466 July |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 412>>343 July |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 425>>355 July |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 400>>328 July |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 433>>353 July |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 402>>360 July |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | No prices |
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 415>>375 May |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 365>>295 July |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | No prices |
| Barley, feed, Australia | No prices |
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 368>>340 July |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 395>>365 July |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 350>>320 July |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 375>>330 July |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 428/430 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 353>>345 July |
| Corn, FOB Russia | No prices |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 374/378 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 288/293 July |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 413>>395 July |
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 570>>550 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 600>>580 July |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 639/642 Mar/Apr |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 555>>545 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 640/645 Mar/Apr |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 580>>545 July |
|
|
|
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 665>>650 July |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 660>>655 July |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 680>>671 July |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 860>>850 m/t July |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 365>>350 m/t July |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 400>>360 m/t July |
|
|
|
Nearby corn byproduct prices moved strongly higher again this week, following grains and oilseeds higher. It doesn't look like we will see any lower prices before at least July or, depending on the Ukraine situation perhaps not in 2022.
It is very difficult to get an accurate picture on where price are as export prices change by the minute. Export demand is very good since everyone wants to have all their needs covered and if you don't book an opportunity when you see it you probably won't see it again.
Corn gluten meal and feed export sellers are said to be sold out through much of May 2022, all at current sky-high prices. There seems to be good availability for export DDGS, but prices are moving higher each day and export buyers don't seem to be backing off from buying --- everyone wants to get covered.
While there will be down days on prices, no one is looking for a sudden drop in export prices in the next few (or many) weeks. And while FOB prices may be steady it is certain the CNF prices are going higher due to rapidly increasing freight costs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry but due to a loss of my source for Animal Protein prices, much of which was from the guys at the Jacobsen Report, I will no longer be publishing information on animal protein prices.
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food |
|
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade |
|
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fish la dings in the south of Peru are getting very close to 100,000 m/t which leaves about 386,000 m/t of the quota --- fishmeal production should be at about 24,000 m/t.
The trade says that the current IMARPE research cruise is progressing well and that results should be available in early April. However, rumors say that the juvenile level is very high which could delay the start of the next fishing season.
While CNF fishmeal prices are steady, all CNF prices have taken a jump higher as vessel fuel price costs are up very strongly. Buyers in China are said to be bidding higher than the prices shown below but are not being booked by producers. Everyone is very afraid of higher freight prices. MSI Ceres mentioned in their report this week that container prices from Peru to Europe are at about USD 280 to 300 m/t, which has priced Peru out of the Europe fishmeal market.
Considering the strong rally in vegetable protein prices, fishmeal prices have not reacted at all to the rally and no one seems to be talking about any upcoming rally in FOB fishmeal prices.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,800 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | No prices |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,690 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,730 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,790 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65% protein standard steam | 1560/1580 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1610/1630 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1660/1680 m/t | 1680/1700 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1710/1730 m/t | 1730/1750 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1760/1780 m/t | 1760/1780 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3200/3250 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 3300/3350 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 3400/3450 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3200/3300 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.