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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 19, 2022
As was expected, we continued to have wide swings in prices all week but did finish the week with all prices down a little from last week. US corn prices were down by USD 6 to 8 m/t with US soybeans down by only about USD 3 m/t and soymeal prices just steady on the week. After racing miles higher recently, US wheat dropped back a little this week with soft winter wheat down by USD 10 to 13 m/t and hard winter down by USD 7 m/t or so.
Every major wheat buying country in the world seems to be tendering for wheat these days as they try to lock up some supply since Ukraine and Russia are out of the game. Ukraine because they can't ship and Russia because of restrictions on payments. India, Romania and France are said to be booking as much wheat business as they can, while other countries have clamped their borders shut for the export of any grains and oilseeds (and many other products).
The situation for Ukraine grains is going to be long term due to export port damages and 2022 crop planting difficulties. World buyers will be hunting everywhere for corn/maize, wheat and barley supplies.
One other side effect to the Ukraine situation is that many governments are having to review the grain import rules so that purchases can be made from countries that could not meet existing import specifications --- things like GMO restrictions and pesticide/fertilizer residue levels are all being studied carefully.
It is going to be a different world market for grains and oilseed for the next couple of years – perhaps longer.
March 23 to March 29, Russian export grain taxes are at: wheat USD 86.40 m/t – up USD 0.10, barley USD 79.60 m/t – up USD 2.20 m/t and corn USD 53.20 m/t – down USD 0.90 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $67/68.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $68/69.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $67/68.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $69/70.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $64/65.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $71/72.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Down $4.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Down $4.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $6.00 |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $62/63.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Ports closed |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Ports closed |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $66/67.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $55/56.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $85/86.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55/56.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $62/63.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $68.69.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $85/86.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| All Black Sea freight costs are no longer available |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – (no Handisize included) | 2605 | Down 113 |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2605 | Up 970 |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 2874 | Down 313 |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2922 | Down 17 |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1662 | Up 114 |
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| Global Container Index - @Freightos | 9488 | Down 289 |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2022/June 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 444>>426 July |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 474>>460 July |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 410>>343 July |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 420>>350 July |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 436>>350 July |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 419>>355 July |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 405>>355 July |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 400>>330 July |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 410>>370 July |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 375>>305 July |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 345/350 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 335/345 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 354>>335 July |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 365>>358 July |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 328>>305 July |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 370>>315 July |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 393>>372 July |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 395>>355 July |
| Corn, FOB Russia | No prices |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | No prices |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 285/295 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 415>>401 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 605>>585 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 635>>615 July |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 615/625 Mar/Apr |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 560>>550 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 620/625 Mar/Apr |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 570>>545 July |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 675>>665 July |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 680>>670 July |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 680>>671 July |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 850>>860 m/t July |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 365>>350 m/t July |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 405>>385 m/t July |
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This week it has been almost impossible to book any corn gluten meal or DDGS in containers for export. Domestic USA business has been very strong which is pulling product away from export markets and any export price indications that you do see tend to be sky-high.
Higher vessel fuel prices are also pushing container freight higher and container availability remains a problem. Of course, container lines, due to cleaning costs and delays, would much rather ship anything other than bulk agricultural products in their limited number of containers.
All corn by product prices are steady to higher this week with no one expecting lower prices in the near term.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There were no fish catches reported in the South of Peru this week due to a 15 day fishing ban. Everyone is still looking for the next Northern fishing season to begin in late April or perhaps early May.
Prices for the next season moved higher this week with reports that about 200,000 m/t of the next season's fishmeal production has been sold. At least one trade report had prices higher than my list below by about USD 25 m/t. According to MSI Ceres part of the upward pressure was due to the expectation that container rates will increase by about USD 20 to 25 m/t --- that would put freight to China at USD 120/125 m/t.
Rumors say that the IMARPE research cruise is showing good biomass levels, so everyone is looking forward to a generous fishing quota for the next season.
About the only concern this week regarding fishmeal is the deteriorating COVID situation in China that could affect demand later in 2022 but it is too soon to know if there will be an affect.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,910 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,510 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,705 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,745 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,915 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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New season prices
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1720/1740 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | 1770/1790 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t | 1800/1820 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3200/3250 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 3300/3350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 3400/3450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3200/3300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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