Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor, Building A, Caves Corporate Center,
Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 03, 2022
Monday is a holiday in the USA so the grain/oilseed markets should start the week on the calm side.
Soybeans and soymeal had another tough week with prices moving up and down then ending up lower on the week. Soybeans in the US were down by about USD 15 m/t for new crop beans while soymeal finished the week about USD 10 lower for new crop. Of course, the drop in old crop prices was much greater but no one is much interested in old crop these days.
After dancing around bit, US corn prices finished the week unchanged, but trade reports did say that there were very wide swings in interior cash corn prices in the US. Comments on the upcoming USDA WASDE report seem to feel that yields for US corn will be lowered which should push corn prices higher. Yields in other countries, like France, are known to be lower so we may be in for a decent uptick in corn prices in coming days.
US wheat prices had been down on the week, but everyone seemed to get excited on the pre-holiday Friday and bought lots of winter wheat futures. However, US spring wheat still finished up the week about USD 7 m/t lower --- seems that the weather situation for spring wheat was just too good to allow any higher prices.
I participated in a webinar on Ukraine agriculture on Thursday and was very encouraged to see/hear that important people in the ag industry in Ukraine are looking at better planned and more logical solutions to moving, harvesting and growing Ukraine grain/oilseed supplies. Gone are the "pie in the sky" solutions to the problems --- no more talk of giant grain elevators on the Polish border or new Ukraine/Baltic train lines via Belarus --- now people are looking at cash flow, long term financing, country wide logistics and support for farmers.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Down $4.00 |
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| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $4.00 |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $55/56.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $56/57.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $56/57.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $57/58.00 | Down $6.00 |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $62/63.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $60/61.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $93/94.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $92/93.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $68/69.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $97/98.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $81/82.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $84/85.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $80/81.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $82/83.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $106/107.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $81/82.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $84/85.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $83/84.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $106/107.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $91/92.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Down $3.00 |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $35/36.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1086 | Up 4 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 733 | Up 322 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1271 | Down 101 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1514 | Down 230 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 869 | Down 64 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 5286 | Down 417 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2022/November 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 345 -- 355 December |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 385 -- 400 December |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 280/285 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 305/310 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 340>>325 December |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 330>>315 December |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 400>>320 December |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 290>>285 December |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 295/300 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 315/320 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 275/285 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 300/305 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 315/320 |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 325/335 |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 275/280 |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 295/305 |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 335>>325 December |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 300/305 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 300/305 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 260/270 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 275/280 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 325/330 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 570>>505 December |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 605>>540 December |
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| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 465/470 December |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 515/520 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 475/480 December |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 605>>575 December |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 610>>590 December |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 625>>600 December |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 835/840 m/t November |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 275/285 m/t November |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 325/335 m/t November |
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Increased domestic and export demand for DDGS pushed prices higher this week – even with soymeal prices slipping lower. The US Grains Council report says that DDGS prices also held up due to lower ethanol production which means a smaller DDGS supply.
Export container rates look to be easing which should lower the CNF prices for all corn byproducts in containers to destinations. This week container freights to Asia are said to be lower by about USD 10 m/t.
With soymeal prices down a little this week we could see a little softness in corn gluten meal (CGM) prices but as fishmeal prices moved higher buyers will be more tempted to use more CGM where they can.
In the past, Egypt has been about the biggest export market for US corn gluten meal but thanks to very high CGM prices and foreign currency problems in Egypt this business has fallen off this year to almost nothing. Buyers in Egypt say that it doesn't look like CGM will be a feed item in Egypt again until the prices drop considerably.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Total catch in the Sothern Region of Peru is now up to 64,000 m/t which will give just over 14,000 m/t of fishmeal and 1,400 m/t of fishoil.
Fishmeal prices in both Peru and Chile are moving higher as expected since there is almost nothing left to sell except some lots from the South. It is reported that buyers are bidding about USD 200 m/t lower for next season production for shipment in January 2023. Trade report say that while there is lots of talk about new season business very little, perhaps none, has actually been booked.
The biggest question for the fishmeal industry is what will the economic situation be in China in 2023 and will he fishmeal consumption stay up at recent levels. Forecasts to date seem to feel that there should be no drop in fishmeal buying by China, but one never knows.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,065 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,615 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,760 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,795 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,110 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1580/1600 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1680/1700 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1730/1750 m/t | 1730/1750 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1780/1800 m/t | 1770/1790 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3900/4000 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4550/4650 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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