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Comment regarding Queen Elizabeth II
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Many year's ago, when I was very young, our entire family stood out in a blizzard in Calgary, Alberta to catch a glimpse of Princess Elizabeth and Prince Philip on their first visit to Canada --- we cheered and waved as they drove by and they smiled and waved back. The date was October 19 1951 and in less than a year she was Queen Elizabeth.
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 10, 2022
Wheat prices in the USA were up strongly this week with winter wheat up by almost USD 20 m/t while spring wheat was up by about USD 15 m/t. Most of the increase in wheat prices was due to the reaction to comments that Russian president Putin made about the grain corridor in the Black Sea. With next week – Monday – being the time for the next WASDE wheat closed the week very strongly. Everyone seems to be expecting higher wheat prices.
Corn prices also finished the week strongly – moving about USD 8 m/t higher with most experts saying that this too is a Black Sea reaction as most of what Ukraine ships is corn not wheat. So, corn would be hit the hardest by any further export problems in Ukraine.
Next weeks WASDE was also important to corn prices as many experts seem to feel that the USDA will reduce corn yields which should be quite bullish for US corn prices.
Soybeans and soymeal finished the week a little lower, but the market was trying to move higher on Friday when there were some stories about US soybean crop problems. Seems that there could be some delays to US soybean exports due to quality problems – problems that seem to relate more to the last stocks of old crop soybeans.
Overall, the market seems to be expecting a bullish WASDE next week for all grains and oilseeds. Monday will be an active and exciting day.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $64/65.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $93/94.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $92/93.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $68/69.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $98/99.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $82/83.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $85/86.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $81/82.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $82/83.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $107/108.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $82/83.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $85/86.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $84/85.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $107/108.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $92/93.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $35/36.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1213 | Up 145 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 672 | Down 61 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1865 | Up 594 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1475 | Down 39 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 873 | Up 4 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 4862 | Down 424 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2022/November 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 387 -- 380 December |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 425 -- 415 December |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 280/285 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 310/315 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 335>>325 December |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 335>>320 December |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 430>>340 December |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 280/285 December |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 300/304 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 320/325 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 285/290 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 295/300 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 310/315 |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 320/330 |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 270/275 |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 290/300 |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 340>>325 December |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 305/310 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 310/315 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 295/300 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 275/280 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 360/365 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 495/500 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 530/535 |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 455/460 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 500/510 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 470/475 |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 600>>570 December |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 580/590 December |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 610>>595 December |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 810/820 m/t November |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300/310 m/t November |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 325/335 m/t November |
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DDGS prices were steady to a little lower this week, but container freight rates are slipping so CNF prices to major markets by container should be as much as USD 10 m/t lower. The lower container freights will also be good for corn gluten meal shipments, most of which go in containers.
Soymeal prices were down for the week by about USD 10 m/t while fishmeal prices were much lower, both will put some pressure on both CGM and DDGS export prices. However, with higher corn prices this week it may limit any weakness.
As prices slip lower, especially CNF prices, the export demand should pick up as buyers try to book some bargain prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Some trade publications report that new season prices in Peru have dropped by close to USD 100 m/t as a number of China buyers were in the market for late 2022, early 2023 shipments. Estimates on how much was booked range from 20,000 m/t to 100,000 m/t. The market was a little surprised as most had felt that there would not be too much pre-season business until the IFFO conference in October. MSI Ceres mentions that there were also good pre-bookings for both Germany and Ecuador.
Trade reports also say that prices to China are lower for the new season due to the poor economic situation there. It the situation gets worse there is the chance that fishmeal demand could drop which will move prices lower. The problem for Peru is – if China lowers its fishmeal imports where will the fishmeal be sold.
Peru's fishmeal exports to the end of August are reported to be at 823,000 m/t with 657,000 m/t for China, 53,000 m/t for Germany, 42,000 m/t for Ecuador with 53,000 to other Asian destinations.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,110 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,640 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,750 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,790 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,105 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1460/1480 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1510/1530 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1560/1580 m/t | 1680/1700 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1610/1630 m/t | 1730/1750 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1660/1680 m/t | 1770/1790 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3900/4000 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4550/4650 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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