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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 14, 2023
The major push in prices was due to this week's somewhat bullish USDA WASDE report.
Corn prices finished the week about USD 8 m/t higher while soybeans were up by close to USD 10 m/t with US wheat much calmer only moving up be USD 3 to 4 m/t.
The WASDE report showed lower world production numbers for both corn and soybeans which certainly was the main mover for grains. Of course, with Argentina lowering its corn crop estimate this also helped push corn higher. However, there were some comments this week that corn prices may have moved too high recently and that a price pull back could be possible.
Argentina also lowered the production number of soybeans – down by 15% -- which added to the bullish market situation. Export numbers for soybeans continue to be very good, which helps to keep soybean prices firm. The US fully expects soybean exports to meet or exceed the USDA forecasts.
Wheat prices were said to be higher on WASDE projections for the lowest US wheat stocks in 15 years. However, higher US wheat plantings could keep wheat prices from moving higher. There is also a very large supply of wheat available in export markets from both Russia and Australia.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $41/42.00 | Down $4.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $4.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $42/43.00 | Down $4.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $41/42.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $42/43.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $44/45.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Down $5.00 |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83/84.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Down $5.00 |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $53/54.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $74/75.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 946 | Down 566 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1299 | Up 169 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1069 | Down 230 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 686 | Down 153 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 500 | Down 52 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 2238 | Up 70 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2023/April 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 325/327 |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 380>>370 April |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 270/275 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 310/315 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | No info |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 321/324 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 350>>365 April |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | No info |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 295/298 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 350/355 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 275/280 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 275/280 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 305>>295 April |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 330>>325 April |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 300/305 |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 305>>300 April |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 320/323 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | No info |
| Corn, FOB Russia | No info |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 260/265 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 365>>360 April |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 590>>555 April |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 625>>590 April |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 595>>530 April |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 625/630 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 575>>530 April |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 610>>600 April |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 600>>575 April |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 590>>575 April |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 825/830 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300/305 m/t |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 345>>330 m/t April |
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All corn byproduct FOB prices were a little lower this week due to lower logistics costs in the USA. Mississippi River barge rates dropped this week by close to USD 10 m/t as the river problems are improving. However, heavy snowfall in parts of the US may push prices higher in coming days – especially for container export shipments.
USA ethanol and DDGS production was up this week which should make prices a little weaker in March/April but the strength in soybean/soymeal prices and the rally in corn prices may mean that the future will be steady to higher for prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
While the political situation in Peru is not very good these days, the fishmeal industry just keep chugging along but daily catch numbers are dropping off. Daily catch numbers in the north are now at or below 20,000 m/t per day --- much of the drop is due to fishing bans in some areas.
Total catch is now up to 1.57 million m/t which leaves 710,000 m/t available on the quota but only 19 days fishing left. To reach full quota the daily average catch is going to have to get up to close to 40,000 m/t but this does seem unlikely. If the catch finishes the month at the current daily level then close to 325,000 m/t of the quota may not be used.
New business is very slow as most producers do not want to book any further sales until they know about when their production will end and this all depends on the daily catch numbers.
Fishmeal prices will probably be steady to higher in the coming weeks.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,235 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,780 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,775 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,805 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,155 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1640/1650 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1670/1680 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1720/1730 m/t | 1710/1720 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1770/1780 m/t | 1760/1770 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1840/1850 m/t | 1810/1820 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 4200/4300 | 3700/3800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4400/4500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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