Representative Office :
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Phone: +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 07, 2023
It is great to be back to preparing the Weekly Report again but the last couple of Saturdays have been very relaxed and enjoyable with no pressure of reports. Now back to work.
This week was a down week overall for most everything – USA corn was down by close to USD 10 m/t while soybeans dropped by about USD 8 m/t (although soybeans did rally on Friday) and US winter wheat dropped by USD 12 to 17 m/t along with US spring wheat down by USD 13 m/t. Only soymeal seemed to be able to avoid lower prices as it moved higher by at least USD 8 m/t.
The push higher on Friday for soybeans and soymeal is said to be tied to the lower crop rating for the Argentina soybean crop. Expected hot and dry weather in Argentina may not be what is wanted for the soybean crop. However, there are some rain clouds in the future forecast.
Corn prices moved lower on disappointing export shipments and sales and on lower demand from the ethanol industry. It is going to be difficult for US corn to catch up with export forecasts as the window for the US to be competitive in corn exports is getting very narrow. There are not too many weeks left until South American corn is once again the market price leader.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
Price changes are since the last report – two weeks ago
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $29/30.00 | X | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $45/46.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $46/47.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $44/45.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $45/46.00 | Down $6.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $47/48.00 | Down $6.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83/84.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
| X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1512 | Down 48 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1130 | Down 1078 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1299 | Down 353 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 839 | Down 318 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 552 | Down 153 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 2168 | Up 41 | x |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2023/March 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 325/327 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 376>>372 April | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 282/285 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 308/312 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 315>>295 April | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 323/326 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 360/380 April | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 260>>245 April | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 294/297 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 345/350 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 270/275 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 270/275 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 302>>295 April | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 325>>320 April | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 295/300 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 295<<270 April | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 320/323 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 245>>230 April | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 220/230 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 360/365 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 585>>545 April | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 620<<580 April | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 585>>520 April | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 585/590 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 560>>515 April | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 595>>590 April | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 585>>560 April | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 580>>560 April | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 830/835 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 315/320 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 350>>330 m/t April | X |
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USA DDGS prices are higher again this week as lower ethanol production levels have limited available DDGS supply. However, most experts feel that ethanol production will increase and DDGS prices will move lower. Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed prices have been steady for the past couple of weeks --- due mainly to limited business and lots of holidays. The market reports don't seem to expect any changes in price for either CGM or CGF.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing up to January 05 totals 1,439,200 m/t which leaves 844,000 m/t to go to full quota but not much time to reach that level. The catch will have to stay up at 200,000 m/t per week to reach full quota, but most experts feel that this level of catch can't be maintained through January.
With all the holidays behind us we should see a good number of vessels out each week.
The new quota for the southern region of Peru has been set at 337,000 m/t with fishing allowed to June 30. Only 13% of the 2022 quota was landed in the south so it seems that there may be a problem with the rules that is seriously limiting the catch.
Reports say that producers are backing off on booking any more business due to concerns over fishing in January --- no one wants to have sold something that they can't produce. Unless there is a real rush in the catch it is expected that new sales will be very limited for a few weeks. It is rumored that some producers may have already oversold the production.
Peru fishmeal prices are steady to higher with everyone watching the daily catch numbers.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,245 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,750 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,770 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,800 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,170 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1640/1650 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1670/1680 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1720/1730 m/t | 1710/1720 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1770/1780 m/t | 1760/1770 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1840/1850 m/t | 1810/1820 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 4200/4300 | 3700/3800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4400/4500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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