Representative Office :
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Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 21, 2023
USA soybeans and soymeal were down quite strongly this week while US corn and wheat prices were mainly unchanged as the week ended.
Soybeans dropped by about USD 11 m/t while soymeal saw a drop of USD 12 to 14 m/t. The drop in these two items was due mainly to the Argentina soybean crop said to be in good to excellent condition with some much needed rain in the forecast. The soybean/soymeal market was probably overbought due to the expectation that things in Argentina and Brazil, with the crop, are worse than they actually seem to be.
There seemed to be a feeling in the trade reports at the end of the week that corn prices could move lower in coming days as there looks to be decent rainfall in both Brazil and Argentina – not enough rain to say that the drought is over but certainly better than no rain at all. Depending on how much rainfall is seen we could see a reasonable move lower for corn prices.
Wheat prices moved higher on Friday which offset most of the losses of early in the week and left most wheat prices unchanged. Trade reports did mention that trading in wheat futures was very low, which may be the main reason for a lack of direction in the wheat market in the week or perhaps a stronger finish on Friday would mean more gains next week.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| $27/28.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $42/43.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $42/43.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $44/45.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83/84.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Down $6.00 |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55/56.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $74/75.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $27/28.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 763 | Down 183 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 787 | Up 512 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1060 | Down 9 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 652 | Down 34 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 441 | Down 59 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 2178 | Down 50 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2023/April 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 320/325 |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 375>>365 April |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 270/275 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 305/310 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 300/305 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 320/323 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 345>>355 April |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 265/270 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 290/293 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 345/350 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 275/280 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 275/280 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 305>>295 April |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 325>>320 April |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 300>>275 June |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 305>>300 June |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 308/312 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | No info |
| Corn, FOB Russia | No info |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 260/265 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 290/295 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 365>>360 April |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 590>>535 April |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 625>>570 April |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 565>>510 June |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 600/605 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 550>>510 June |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 595>>590 May |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 600>>570 May |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 580>>570 May |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 825/830 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300/305 m/t |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340>>330 m/t April |
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USA corn byproduct FOB USA prices were all steady this week but demand for DDGS in the domestic USA market is said to be very strong due to high soymeal prices. The US Grains Council has reported that container rates from the USA to major markets in Asia are down this week by close to USD 20 m/t making USA corn byproducts much more competitive in Asian markets.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The fishing has been a little up and down this week with an average day being at about 15,000 m/t of catch. We are now up to 1.69 million m/t of catch which leaves 590,000 m/t to go and only another 10 days of fishing. It looks like there will be about 400,000 m/t of the quotes that won't be landed, which could be as much as 90,000 m/t of fishmeal.
It was also reported that there is a little catch landed in the south of Peru but only just 100 m/t. However this is the first landing in the south in 2023, perhaps things will pick up as the south does have a quota of 337,000 m/t of catch.
Fishing in parts of Peru has been restricted and some ports closed due to very bad weather and extremely high swell levels. which is keeping the catch numbers down.
Trade reports say that all the resales have now been covered by the catch, which should make some new stocks available for sale. But if we only land another 200,000 m/t of fish that would leave about 40 to 50,000 m/t for sale until the next season --- not very much.
According to MSI Ceres the container rate to China is now at USD 35 m/t so the prices shown below may be a little too low on a FOB Peru basis.
As we have seen on the news, the political situation in Peru is very difficult at present. The government is said to be moving very quickly against the "extremists" that it says are causing the unrest.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,215 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,780 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,775 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,805 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,145 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1640/1650 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1690/1700 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1740/1750 m/t | 1740/1750 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1790/1800 m/t | 1790/1800 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1840/1850 m/t | 1840/1850 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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