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Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 04, 2023
Soymeal prices are at the highest level seen in about 8 years, according to trade comments, and probably have room to go higher. Argentina's soybean crop is said to be in the blooming stage but is facing very high temperatures and very low rainfall – not all that good for much of the soybean region.
USA exporters reported new export sales of soybeans which helped to keep the soybean prices up. However, with Brazil soybeans on the way and being offered at about USD 20 to 30 m/t lower than US soybeans the US exports will soon slow.
Trade reports on Friday said that the next few months, up to about June, should be very good export months for US corn, as the USA will be the supplier with corn stocks and at competitive prices. Who knows, perhaps there might even be some business to the EU other than just Spain.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 |
| $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $5.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Down $5.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $5.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $42/43.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $44/45.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83/84.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Down $2.00 |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $69/79.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $75/76.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $23 Russia $18 Romania | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $26 Russia $21 Romania | Steady |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Down $3.00 |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Turkey – coaster 3,000 m/t | $70.00 | New |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3,000 m/t | $100.00 | New |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 621 | Down 55 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 429 | Down 105 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 940 | Down 114 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 682 | Up 32 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 436 | Up 5 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 2062 | Down 152 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2023/April 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 330>>318 June |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 389>>383 June |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275/280 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 300/305 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 300/305 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 317/320 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 340>>350 April |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 265/270 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 297/300 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 345/350 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 275/280 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 280/285 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 305>>295 June |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 330>>320 June |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 300>>275 June |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 310>>280 June |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 329/331 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 270/275 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 310/315 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 365/370 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 615>>565 June |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 650>>600 June |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 590>>540 June |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 600/605 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 570>>530 June |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 605>>595 June |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 590>>580 June |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 595>>575 June |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 840/845 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 320/325 m/t |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 345>>330 m/t June |
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USA corn byproduct prices were all higher this week due mostly to strong domestic demand in the US. Of course, the higher move for soymeal prices also helped to move corn byproducts higher. The latest USDA corn crushing report shows lower DDGS production, so any demand increase is bound to push prices higher.
Corn gluten meal prices were higher too – much as one would expect for a 60% protein product when soymeal prices were up by at least USD 20 m/t.
There was quite a bit of interest from buyers in Egypt for both DDGS and CGM but the foreign exchange problems in Egypt still make sellers very wary of new Egypt business. Not much sense in shipping if you don't get paid for months or perhaps not at all.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well, it looks like the northern Peru fishing season is over with the total catch at about 1.9 million m/t – leaving 283,000 m/t on the quota. All in all it wasn't too bad a fishing season with only January being a low catch month – exactly as had been expected.
Fishing in the south of Peru is moving along slowly with just 8,600 m/t landed so far but lots of time until the 337,000 m/t quota expires.
Business has not picked up yet following the end to Chinese new year but that will happen soon. Producers are looking to get higher prices for the little fishmeal that remains unsold. There has been some talk that producers are looking for about USD 30 m/t higher than the prices shown below.
Available stocks of super prime and prime fishmeal are very, very low so buyers will have to be happy with slightly lower grade product. MSI Ceres said this week that the best quality available now looks to be 66% protein prime. They added that quality levels are a little different with this season due to the very high juvenile levels and abnormally low oil/fat levels.
Also from MSI Ceres are the Peru fishmeal exports to Asia which shows quantities down by 187,000 m/t in 2022 to 919,400 m/t --- shipments to China dropped by 155,500 m/t. According to China fishmeal import numbers, total fishmeal imports were down by 22.1% but Peru still represents 48.8% of China's fishmeal imports. China's statistics show fishmeal imports from 22 countries.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,130 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,785 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,770 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,800 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,090 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1640/1650 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1690/1700 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1740/1750 m/t | 1740/1750 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1790/1800 m/t | 1780/1790 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1840/1850 m/t | 1820/1830 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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