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Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 18, 2023
US grains are seeing a high US dollar this week which makes export business more difficult and tends to push export prices lower --- wheat seems to be the most bothered by the stronger USD.
Argentina's weather situation is still bad with no improvement seen for now and this will keep corn, soybean and soymeal prices steady to higher, or so experts say. USA export sales were not too exciting this week – lower than had been expected by the trade.
Looking at corn it is tough to know exactly where prices will go, Argentina's weather problems are pushing things higher while Brazil's expected record corn crop is pushing lower and USA corn exports are not nearly as good as had been expected. Difficult to know where corn prices will be in a few weeks.
Reading the end of week trade reports, it looks like the feeling is that soybeans could move higher --- due to the weather-related lower expected crop in Argentina and the developing export logistics problems in Brazil. While Brazil will have a record soybean crop, logistics problems may slow down exports and create serious soybean storage problems --- all of which looks a little bullish for soybean prices.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| $24/25.00 | Steady | X | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $35/36.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $36/37.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $38/39.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45/46.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83/84.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
| X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $15 Russia $24 Ukraine |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $17 Russia $31 Ukraine |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia $18 Romania |
| X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
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| Russia to Turkey – coaster 3,000 m/t | $67.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3,000 m/t | $100.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 538 | Down 64 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 271 | Down 215 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 811 | Down 53 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 695 | Up 67 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 438 | Up 2 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1991 | Down 14 | x |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2023/May 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 333>>318 July | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 403>>391 July | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275/280 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 300/305 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 300/305 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 322/325 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 335/340 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 265/270 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 301/304 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 320/325 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 270/275 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 280/285 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 305>>300 July | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 330>>325 July | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 300>>270 July | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 310>>280 July | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 326/329 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 270/275 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 325/330 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 365/370 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 605>>560 July | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 635>>590 July | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 580>>530 July | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 600/605 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 560>>515 July | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 600>>595 July | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 595>>580 July | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 560<<570 July | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 810/815 | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285/290 | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340>>335 July | x |
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With soymeal moving lower this week all the corn byproduct prices dipped lower --- both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were down significantly while DDGS prices only moved down by about USD 5 m/t.
The lower prices for CGM and CGF are said to be more related to improved logistics than anything else. Domestic demand is still strong for both but it does tail off as we move out of the high winter demand period.
Supplies for all corn byproducts are reported to be very good this week and lower container ocean freight rates continue to keep export buyers in the market.
There has been quite a bit of buying interest from Egypt but most/all USA exporters are avoiding Egypt for now due to the continued banking/foreign exchange problems. Buyers are only willing to sell on 100% prepayment terms unless docs are payable at a bank outside of Egypt. Egypt has been the number one export destination for US CGM in times past.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the south of Peru showed a little catch this week moving the total to date up to just 10,600 m/t. This leaves 326,400 m/t still available on the southern quota until June 20, 2023.
Reports say that there has been a little pre-sale business done on the next quota with prices moving higher by about USD 30 m/t. The last of the very limited stock from the recent fishing is also seeing higher prices as producers are trying to squeeze every penny out of the market.
Business has been very quiet – not much left to sell – very little from the south – and quite a while to go until the next fishing season in north/central Peru.
Interestingly, it does look like prices want to stay higher going into the next season.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,085 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,745 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,785 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,815 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,065 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1640/1650 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1690/1700 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1740/1750 m/t | 1740/1750 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1790/1800 m/t | 1780/1790 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1840/1850 m/t | 1820/1830 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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