3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW : hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 11, 2023
At the end of the week, Friday was a day for a price rally --- especially for wheat as there was a great deal of trade concern that the Black Sea grain corridor may not be extended as Russia is flexing its muscles a little. Russia has said that the corridor has been helping the Ukraine while Russian grain shipments are suffering due to banking sanctions. Of course, as we all know, Russia's grain exports are well above last year's levels.
Russia's comments and possible actions helped to push US wheat prices up by about USD 10 mt for US winter wheat.
Soybean prices continued to climb higher as concerns still exist over the Brazil weather situation --- the rain that was needed earlier for crops is now falling and delaying Brazil's harvest. Soymeal had a steady week but certainly didn't show any weakness – just a week of resting and relaxing.
Corn prices were almost unchanged at the end of the week but there may be a rally in coming weeks if Russia does cut back on oil exports which could have the US increasing corn-based ethanol production.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
| $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 |
| |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $4.00 |
|
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Down $4.00 |
|
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $4.00 |
|
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $37/38.00 | Down $4.00 |
|
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $38/39.00 | Down $4.00 |
|
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Down $4.00 |
|
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $41/42.00 | Down $3.00 |
|
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $60/61.00 | Down $5.00 |
|
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Down $3.00 |
|
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW China: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $43/44.00 | Down $3.00 |
|
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
|
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83/84.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $3.00 |
|
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $3.00 |
|
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
|
|
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $75/76.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
|
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Up $2.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
|
|
|
|
| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Down $3.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $18 Russia $26 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $29 Russia $36 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Down $3.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $25 Russia $18 Romania |
|
|
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Russia to Turkey – coaster 3,000 m/t | $67.00 | Down $3.00 |
|
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3,000 m/t | $100.00 | Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index | 602 | Down 19 |
|
| Baltic Capesize Index | 486 | Up 57 |
|
| Baltic Panamax Index | 864 | Down 76 |
|
| Baltic Supramax Index | 628 | Down 54 |
|
| Baltic Handisize Index | 436 | Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Global Container Index - Freightos | 2005 | Down 57 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2023/May 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 340>>330 June |
|
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 405>>390 June |
|
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275/280 |
|
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 300/305 |
|
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 305/310 |
|
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 329/331 |
|
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 340>>350 May |
|
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 265/270 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 300/303 |
|
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 345/350 |
|
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 270/275 |
|
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 280/285 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 305>>300 June |
|
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 330>>325 June |
|
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 300>>275 June |
|
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 310>>280 June |
|
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 325/328 |
|
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 265/270 |
|
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 |
|
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
|
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 315/320 |
|
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 362/367 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 615>>560 June |
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 650>>595 June |
|
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 600>>535 June |
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 615/620 |
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 580>>525 June |
|
|
|
|
|
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 605>>595 June |
|
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 595>>580 June |
|
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 565<<575 June |
|
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
|
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 840/845 m/t |
|
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 320/325 m/t |
|
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 345>>330 m/t June |
|
|
|
|
|
Very little change this week in corn byproduct prices. Spot DDGS prices are reported to be down by about USD 5 m/t while prices a little further out remain steady.
Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed prices were steady during the week and seem to be stuck at the current level.
If soymeal prices were to take a dive this would probably move all corn byproducts lower, but a weak soymeal market doesn't look too possible these days.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Looking at the final fishing numbers for the recent quota it seems that 364,000 m/t of the quota was not landed, which represents 86,800 m/t of fishmeal. Total fishmeal produced is estimated at 457,000 m/t.
There was a small catch in the south this week with the total catch now up to 9,900 m/t.
According to trade reports, business has started for the next fishing season with prices looking to be higher than today's market prices. No new sales of current fishmeal, as it is more than 95% sold. Only dribs and drabs are available.
According to MSI Ceres this week the current container rate from Peru to China is about USD 35 m/t which is around about USD 1,000 for a 40 foot container. It is not expected that container rates will go any lower.
The trade expects that the next fishing season will be in late April or early May.
Business should be quiet for the next while as there is little to buy/sell, perhaps 25,000 m/t max, and most buyers think that it is too early to jump into buying the next season's production.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,125 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,760 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,780 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,810 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,055 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1640/1650 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1690/1700 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1740/1750 m/t | 1740/1750 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1790/1800 m/t | 1780/1790 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1840/1850 m/t | 1820/1830 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.