3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW : hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 11, 2023
At the end of the week we had corn prices down by about USD 9 m/t with soybeans down by about USD 5 m/t while soymeal was higher by about USD 5 m/t. All US wheat was lower on the week with winter wheat down by USD 7 to 10 m/t depending on type while spring wheat was down by about USD 17 m/t.
While all grain prices moved lower early in the week the WASDE seemed to get folks a little excited and prices moved higher after the report --- not enough though to offset earlier price weakness.
Corn prices were down early in the week due to poor export numbers and lower USDA export estimates won't help firm up corn prices. However, according to some trade reports USA corn is getting very competitive with Brazil, especially from the US PNW.
There didn't seem to be much in the WASDE to move soybean prices and, according to trade reports, soybeans look to be stuck in a wide trading range – up a little then down a little, with no major direction set.
Wheat prices were all down in the week but did have a strong Friday – strong but not enough to cover the early week drop. International wheat prices were lower and there are continued worries over the Black Sea grain corridor and how it might affect wheat shipments.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
Ocean freight rates are looking to move higher --- at least the Baltic Exchange is – increased demand from China and Brazil along with logistics problems in Brazil have pushed rates higher --- especially from South America. Loading delays in Brazil are said to be about 2 weeks which will also push prices higher.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady |
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| $26.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $34.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $36.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $37.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $39.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $70.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $73.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $69.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $71.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $40.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $70.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $70.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $43.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $69.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $78.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $77.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $44.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $56.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $65 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $53 Ukraine $58 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $18 Russia $24 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $20 Russia $25 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $55 Russia $60 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $32.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31 Russia 36 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30 Russia $35 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $60.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia $18 Romania |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $67.00 | Down $3.00 |
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| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $97.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1424 | Up 213 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1744 | Up 549 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1654 | Up 89 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1389 | Up 393 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 584 | Up 79 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1790 | Down 194 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2023/June 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 292>>277 July |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 356>>350 July |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 270/275 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 285/290 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 290/295 |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 287/290 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 335/340 |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 255/260 July |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 280/285 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 320/325 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 265/270 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 280/285 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 275>>270 July |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 300>>295 July |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 280>>250 July |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 285>>260 July |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 301/304 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/265 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 305/315 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 330/335 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 585>>560 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 615>>590 July |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 560>>540 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 590/600 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 545>>525 July |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 595>>590 July |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 570/580 July |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 555/565 July |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 800/810 |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 275/280 |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 335>>325 July |
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Lower corn prices this week put some pressure on corn byproduct export prices with corn gluten meal down by about USD 10 m/t and corn gluten feed down by USD 5 m/t. The nearby price for US DDGS was a little lower but prices out a few weeks were steady.
All of the new business being booked looks to be in the late April to May shipment period with March and much of April nearly booked out – especially for loading space.
This week wasn't too busy – probably due to the WASDE report late in the week – next week should see all the buyers and sellers back in the market after having fully digested the WASDE details.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Another week with no landings reported for the south of Peru.
As usual there is lots of speculation on the next North/Central fishing quota and when it will start. Looking back over the past few years, it looks like the average quota would be about 2.5 million m/t but it will depend on the results of the IMARPE research cruise and the estimated size of the biomass. Actual landings over the past few years look to be just under full quota in most years.
According to the MSI Ceres weekly report, fishmeal prices in China show as much as a USD 30 premium for new season fishmeal. Fishmeal stocks in China are building as arrivals are now greater than consumption but this will change as we get into the next aqua season.
Lots of talk again this week on a possible El Nino event and what it could cause for the fishing season. Hard to know exactly what it might mean but looks like nothing serious for now.
Chinese buyers are said to be asking for lower prices for the next season due to the strength of the US$ against the Chinese currency --- they don't want to have to push local prices higher.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,035 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,700 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,785 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,815 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,005 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1710/1720 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1760/1770 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1810/1820 m/t | 1800/1810 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1860/1870 m/t | 1840/1850 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1910/1920 m/t | 1900/1910 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 5100/5150 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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