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Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 18, 2023
Old crop corn prices were higher on the week – up by about USD 4 to 6 m/t. The increase in corn prices is said to be due to the announced corn sale to China and to following along to the strong price rally in wheat --- after all both are great feed items.
The rally in wheat prices looks to be related to the lack of agreement on the Black Sea grain corridor. While it looks like the agreement will be extended, Russia wants only a 60 day extension which will just increase tensions in the grain markets. Ukraine and everyone else is pushing for 120 days. There were also trade comments that concerns about the US banking system have scared the market and caused some players to cover wheat shorts which helped to push things even higher.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27.00 | Up $1.00 |
| $27.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $34.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $35.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $37.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $38.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $40.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $54.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $53.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $31.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $70.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $48.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $73.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $69.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $71.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $43.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $70.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $70.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $43.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $44.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $69.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $78.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $77.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $45.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $55.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $56 Ukraine $61 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $47 Ukraine $54 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $18 Russia $31 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $20 Russia $34 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $47 Russia $65 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $32.00 |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31 Russia 36 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30 Russia $35 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37.00 |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32.00 |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $60.00 |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $17 Russia | Down $1 |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $64.00 | Down $3.00 |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $95.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1535 | Up 111 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1913 | Up 169 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1723 | Up 69 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1318 | down 71 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 694 | Up 110 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1463 | Down 327 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2023/June 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 301>>288 July |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 365>>355 July |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/265 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 270/280 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 285/290 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 290/293 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 335/340 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 255/260 July |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 288/291 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 320/325 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 265/270 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 275/280 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 285>>280 July |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 305>>300 July |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 290>>260 July |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 290>>265 July |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 307/310 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 260/270 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 260/265 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 245/250 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 305/315 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 310/315 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 565>>545 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 595>>575 July |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 540>>525 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 595/600 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 565>>515 July |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 580>>575 July |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 555<<570 July |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 540<<555 July |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 795/805 |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285/290 |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 335>>330 July |
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Corn gluten meal export prices dropped a little this week as soymeal prices were weaker but both corn gluten feed and DDGS were steady to a little higher. However, DDGS export prices are looking a little higher in June and July – up by about USD 5 m/t.
The USD 20 m/t drop in soymeal prices this week has certainly helped weaken some prices or at least stopped any increases – not that increases were expected as the market has been in a trading range for weeks now.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Peru seems to have discovered a new storm this week to upset the fish – not that there is much fishing – a "yaku cyclone" has hit Peru with very high winds and steady rain. Luckily for Peru it is passing through not hanging around like an El Nino event does. However, the "Yaku" does seem to have raised water temperatures – at least for a short time.
According to MSI Ceres weekly report, fishmeal stocks in China re very good with new arrivals from Peru most days. Local sellers seem to be discounting the prices for "old stock" fishmeal by about USD 15 to 30 m/t. Advance prices in China for the next Peru fishing season are steady.
The IMARPE research cruise is chugging along merrily in Peru and there seems to be a question about Yaku caused costal mud slides and how they could affect the fish.
Trade estimates are that about 70,000 m/t of next fishing seasons fishmeal production has been sold.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,055 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,720 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,800 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,830 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,035 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1700/1710 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1750/1760 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1810 m/t | 1800/1810 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1850/1860 m/t | 1830/1840 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1900/1910 m/t | 1900/1910 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 5100/5150 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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