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Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 04, 2023
The week ended with prices moving up on Friday, which changed most items from lower prices to steady on the week or a little lower. Corn prices did drop by a couple of dollars but that is nothing in the market while both soybeans and soymeal ended up almost unchanged on the week. Only USA wheat prices stayed lower all week with winter wheat down by about USD 7 m/t with spring wheat down by USD 4 to 7 m/t.
Corn prices had been down all week after poor US corn export numbers but by Friday there seemed to be some confidence that US corn exports will pick up as Brazil and Argentina may be a little less price dominant.
There was some early pressure on soybean and soymeal prices this week but lower prices couldn't hold as there seems to be more bullish than bearish news. Both soybeans and soymeal don't act at all like the prices are going to move lower in the short-term.
USA wheat prices moved lower on the week as Black Sea wheat supply, especially Russian, continues to be very good. There was the story that India may have to import wheat later in 2023 but this is just speculation so far although the possible import levels mentioned were huge. If India does need to import and this takes millions of tons out of the world wheat supply then prices are bound to move higher. But, for now, it is all just guess work regarding India.
Next week is USDA WASDE week which should be a little exciting for grain prices. I don't think that March WASDE numbers are normally all that exciting but we will see.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Up $2.00 |
|
| $26.00 | Up $2.00 |
| |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Up $3.00 |
|
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $34.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $36.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $37.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $39.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $53.00 | Up $4.00 |
|
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $52.00 | Up $4.00 |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Up $5.00 |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Up $4.00 |
|
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29.00 | Up $2.00 |
|
| US PNW China: Panamax | $29.00 | Up $2.00 |
|
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed |
|
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $69.00 | Up $2.00 |
|
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $47.00 | Up $6.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $48.00 | Up $6.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $73.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $62.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $68.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $70.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $40.00 | Down $5.00 |
|
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $62.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $69.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $70.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $42.00 | Up $4.00 |
|
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $43.00 | Up $4.00 |
|
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $63.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $69.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
|
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $78.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $63.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $77.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $44.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $56.00 | Up $4.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $65 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $53 Ukraine $58 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $19 Russia $24 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia $36 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $55 Russia $60 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31 Russia Romania |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30 Russia $43 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia $18 Romania |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $70.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $98.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1211 | Up 328 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1195 | Up 559 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1565 | Up 294 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1389 | Up 393 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 584 | Up 79 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1790 | Down 194 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2023/May 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 305>>295 July |
|
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 362>>355 July |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 270/275 |
|
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 290/295 |
|
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 290/295 |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 302/305 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 340/345 |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 260/265 July |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 296/300 |
|
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 320/325 |
|
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 265/270 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 280/285 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 290>>280 July |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 315>>310 July |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 290>>260 July |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 295>>255 July |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 317/320 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 260/270 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/275 |
|
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 260/270 |
|
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 305/315 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 355/360 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 585>>555 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 615>>585 July |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 560>>535 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 590/595 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 540>>525 July |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 595>>590 July |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 575/580 July |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 565/575 July |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 810/815 |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285/290 |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340>>325 July |
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Corn byproduct export prices were mainly steady on the week as both corn and soymeal slipped a little lower. However, CNF prices in containers are reported to be a little weaker as the recent weakness in container freight prices continues.
USA domestic demand for corn gluten meal remains strong – thanks to the pet food producers – which is keeping prices very steady for protein items. Export business for both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed has dropped off due to steady pieces but the export demand for DDGS remains very good. More and more markets seem to be recognizing the value of DDGS as a feed ingredient.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Quite a few trade comments this week about higher than normal temperatures in the Pacific off Peru. There is concern that the higher temperatures could have an effect on the anchovy spawning that should be in full swing at present.
Fishmeal prices in Peru have moved higher this week as more business is being booked for the next season. Not too sure if the higher prices will hold as the main buyer – China – has very good stocks on hand and on the way -- so, new business may be limited. Trade estimates are that about 60,000 m/t of next season's production has been presold.
The south of Peru showed no landings for the week which leaves the available quota at 352,800 m/t of catch.
Lots of speculation this week on when the next north/central fishing season will begin --- it all seems to depend on when the current IMARPE research cruise is completed. Still looks like the next season will begin in the last half of April or first half of May.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,040 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,705 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,785 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,815 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,015 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1710/1720 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1760/1770 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1810/1820 m/t | 1800/1810 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1860/1870 m/t | 1840/1850 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1910/1920 m/t | 1900/1910 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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