Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 10, 2023
Soybeans were in an up trend before the WASDE and continued to move higher by about USD 6 m/t after the report. Trade report says most of the reason was due to strength in soyoil which helped push soybeans higher. The WASDE had lower US soybean production but slightly higher ending stocks.
Corn prices were almost unchanged during the week in the USA. US corn production was lowered by the USDA but ending stocks were increased a little. USA corn exports were unchanged from the May report while total world corn exports were up slightly – quite a neutral report.
Wheat prices, like corn, did not have a strong reaction to the WASDE but most experts feel that the report should actually help to move wheat prices lower. US wheat production was increased a little with exports unchanged, which was repeated in world numbers --- no major changes from the May report.
Trade reports say that this June WASDE is just a fill in report with little or no effect on the market.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady |
| $27.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $28.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $28.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $29.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $32.00 | Steady |
| $44.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $34.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $56.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $44.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $45.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $56.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $55.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $57.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $49.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $56.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $53.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $38.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $52.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $55 Ukraine $58 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $67 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $47 Ukraine $56 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $24 Russia $30 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $20 Russia $35 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $49 Russia $60 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia $39 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia $38 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $30 Russia $41 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $42 Russia $54 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $27 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $34.00 | Steady |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1055 | Up 136 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1514 | Up 398 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1146 | Up 116 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 736 | Down 143 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 501 | Down 44 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1441 | Up 61 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2023/September 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 254<<262 Sep |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 337<<340 Oct |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/215 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225/230 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 252/255 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 330/335 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 210/215 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 235/238 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/230 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 180/185 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 230/235 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 260>>240 Sep |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 300>>265 Sep |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220>>210 Sep |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 240>>215 Sep |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 264/267 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 225/230 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 225/230 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215/220 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 265/270 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 290>>270 Sep |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 460>>450 Sep |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 490>>480 Sep |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 460>>440 Sep |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 490/495 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 450>>440 Sep |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 530>>490 Sep |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 520/525 |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 480/485 |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 490>>430 Sep Ukraine |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 620/630 |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 240/245 |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265>>250 Sep |
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USA DDGS and corn gluten meal prices were down again this week. DDGS were down due to high ethanol production which increased DDGS stocks while CGM was down again on lower demand in the US domestic market --- looks like the pet food producers have backed off from buying CGM for now.
The lower CGM prices have created a lot of buying interest from Egypt, but the serious foreign exchange shortages mean that most buyers can't find FX funding to import. Only buyers with non-Egyptian bank relationships are able to find the FX.
Prices for corn coproducts will probably be steady to lower for most of the summer months as domestic US demand is down while supply remains good.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the North/Central region is at just over 41,000 m/t but there is a serious problem with juvenile levels ---- up to 75 to 80% -- which means a rash of mini-bans and limited fishing. The quota level now stands at 1,050,000 m/t. It is also reported that some fishing groups have stopped fishing without a ban due to the very high juvenile level. Juvenile fish are just too small.
There were no reported landings in the southern region of Peru which leaves the quota at about 312,000 m/t to go.
The North/Central quota is the lowest seen in 18 years but then the biomass is also at the lowest levels in 18 years. Also, since 2005 only one other year started fishing as late as June that was in 2016.
Fishing in the North/Central region has also had to face very bad fishing weather, according to MSI Ceres, with 3 meter waves. They add that 102 ports are closed due to bad weather. Bad weather looks like it will be with us for the next week.
Peru and Chile prices are moving higher due to the lower than expected quotas and the level of pre-season fishmeal sales. However, for now, there doesn't seem to be a great deal of buying interest as the major market in China is well covered and stocks on hand in China are high.
As to prices --- it looks like the trend will be steady to higher as there seems to be no reason to expect lower prices.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,015 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,790 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,995 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,995 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,925 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1860/1870 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1910/1920 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1960/1970 m/t | 20400/2050 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2010/2020 m/t | 2080/2090 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2060/2070 m/t | 2120/2130 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,000/5,100 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 6,000/6,100 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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