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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 17, 2023
Trade reports are saying that most grain/oilseed markets have turned from being bearish for a while to now being very bullish ---- corn in particular seem to be at great risk from the drought.
There will be some rain in the Corn Belt this weekend, but it won’t cover the entire corn area. According to trade reports there should be more rain in the forecast over the next couple of weeks, but temperatures are expected to remain high. So, it could continue to be a case of not enough rain with slow but steady damage being done to crop yields.
Of course, the rally in prices could be a little overdone as the market shorts got scared by the rally and covered their short positions…..we will have to see what happens next week.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady | |
$27.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $29.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $29.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $32.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $33.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$44.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $35.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $48.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $27.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $57.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $44.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $56.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $56.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $58.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $57.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $53.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $36.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $52.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $55 Ukraine $58 | ||
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $67 | ||
Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $47 Ukraine $56 | ||
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $22 Russia $40 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $20 Russia $34 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $49 Russia $60 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia $39 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia $38 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $30 Russia $40 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $44 Russia $53 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $27 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $27.00 | Down $6.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $55.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1076 | Up 21 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 1528 | Up 14 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1193 | Up 47 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 736 | Up 12 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 464 | Down 37 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1441 | Down 42 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2023/September 2023
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 275<<290 Oct | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 350<<368 Oct | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/215 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225/230 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 262/265 | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 335/340 | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 210/215 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 240/245 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 235/240 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 180/185 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 225/230 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 270>>260 Sep | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 295>>290 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 225<<235 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 235<<240 Sep | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 277/280 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 220/225 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 220/230 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215/220 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 255/260 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 295>>285 Sep | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 475<<485 Sep | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 505>>415 Sep | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 470<<475 Sep | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 475/485 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 455<<460 Sep | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 560>>530 Oct | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 550<<560 Oct | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 500<<520 Oct | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 510>>460 Sep Ukraine | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 680/690 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/235 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 255>>250 Sep | |
Corn coproducts all moved higher this week and after Friday’s market results are expected to move even higher next week. For DDGS, ethanol production is down a little while corn prices are up strongly --- all the bargain prices have disappeared in a flash.
The jump in published corn gluten meal prices is very large and seems to suggest that last week’s price was understated.
Next week should be a very exciting week for prices….. higher and higher expected.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well, that was quite a surprise wasn’t it. I had no sooner published my weekly report when the fishing season in north/central Peru was stopped. Prices for fishmeal had softened a little once the new quota was announced and the fishing started but this week the cancellation news pushed prices back higher.
With about 100,000 m/t of fishmeal presold there could be some buyers wondering what they will do now. Of course, this is also a serious problem for fisherman, producers and exporters in Peru all of which depend greatly on the fishmeal business.
Trade reports say that fishmeal prices in China have moved up quickly even though there are still good stocks on hand ---- but there will be no more coming from Peru for now.
However, there was some news late this week which seems to say that perhaps there could still be a fishing season if the current new biomass investigation cruise shows improved conditions. This new survey will not be completed for about three weeks, so we need to sit and wait once again…. And hope.
PERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,080 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,820 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,985 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,985 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,045 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
The prices below may not be accurate as there has been no trade price update since the cancellation of the fishing season.
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1860/1870 m/t | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1910/1920 m/t | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1960/1970 m/t | 20400/2050 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2010/2020 m/t | 2080/2090 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2060/2070 m/t | 2120/2130 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,000/5,100 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 6,000/6,100 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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