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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 19, 2023
Corn and soybean prices were pushed higher by US weather reports that show hot and dry weather in the next few days. Corn prices did try to move higher on Friday but had little success. Some trade papers are suggesting that corn prices could be in for a move lower next week. Soybeans seemed to be up strictly on the weather with no one wanting to be short with a hot, dry forecast.
Wheat prices were higher on Friday, but still lower on the week, due to international news. Russia’s large wheat deal to India helped as did the IGC lowering ending wheat stocks. Futures experts also add that the wheat futures market looked to be “oversold” so that a rally, like Friday’s, was due.
You will see further down in the report that I am dropping some freight rates, this is because the ones being dropped are never used or haven’t been in a long time or it is almost impossible to get any accurate rates for the destination.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
Freight items marked in red will be removed from all future reports.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Up $2.00 | |
$26.00 | Up $2.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $31.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $32.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
$42.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Up $4.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $51.00 | Up $4.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $26.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $58.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $47.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $48.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $51.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $57.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $59.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $58.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $48.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $40.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $47.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $58.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $47 Ukraine $57 | ||
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $77 | ||
Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $35 Ukraine $56 | ||
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $17 Russia $45 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $16 Russia $35 Ukraine | | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $40 Russia $61 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $23 Russia $49 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $22 Russia $48 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $24 Russia $50 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $37 Russia $71 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $15 Russia $40 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $67.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1237 | Up 108 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 1598 | Up 6 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1542 | Up 205 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 879 | Up 151 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 469 | Up 58 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1501 | Down 32 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2023/November 2023
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 250<<265 Nov | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 315<<330 Nov | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205/210 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250/255 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 248<<260 Nov | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 290/295 | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 230/233 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 235/240 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 195/205 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 250/255 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 215<<220 Nov | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 245<<250 Nov | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 215/225 Nov | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 243/245 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 275/280 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 240<<250 Nov | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 475/480 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 505/510 | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 465<<470 Nov | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 495/500 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 445<<455 Nov | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 540>>530 Nov | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 525/530 | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 525/530 | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 525/530 Ukraine | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 640/650 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/230 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265>>255 Nov | |
Prices for all corn coproducts were steady this week but DDGS out a few weeks does seem to be a little weaker. Corn gluten meal prices were steady and there was quite a bit of buying interest in the market – buyers in both Indonesia and Egypt were quite active – perhaps not buying but certainly looking.
Experts feel that all corn coproducts prices will likely move higher for shipment later in the year as normally September/October prices are the lowest of the year due to harvest price pressure.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
So, the 10 day exploratory fishing in North/Central area of Peru had a total catch of 224,000 m/t which will mean about 54,000 m/t of fishmeal. Not too bad a result for a short, intense fishing period.
We are also seeing some indication prices from Peru and they are a little weaker --- not that there is really much for sale as the 10 days fishing didn’t even cover all the sales on the books. According to trade reports there is still about 45,000 m/t of sales that can’t be filled and will have to roll to the next fishing season.
The trade is complaining that there has been no new quota set for the South region of Peru, so no fishing has been possible.
Talk now has turned to the next season with trade estimates for the next quota ranging from a low of 2.0 million m/t to a high of 3.5 mm/t. The season is expected to start in late October.
Reports out of China show that expected fishmeal use could drop by 20% but with fishmeal imports down by 32%. Peru’s shipments to China up to July 2023 are down by 41% but then all Peru shipments are down by that much due to the lack of fishing.
One has to ask what the long-term effect on world fishmeal consumption this year’s smaller supply will have. Will China finally swing away from using as much expensive fishmeal. Can other protein alternatives work as well (or almost as well) as fishmeal?
PERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,245 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,875 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,115 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,115 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,110 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 2250/2270 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 2300/2320 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2350/2370 | 2250/2270 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 | 2300/2320 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2450.2470 | 2350/2370 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,300/5,400 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 8,000/8,100 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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