Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 12, 2023
Corn crop yields were down by about 1.5% -- lower yields had been expected but the USDA yields were slightly lower than what the trade had forecasted. With a good weather forecast for much of the US the market seemed to feel that USDA yield projections were a little too low. Corn prices dropped by about USD 3 m/t on Friday due to the improving corn belt weather. For the week corn prices were down by about USD 4 m/t.
Soybeans too were down on Friday – by about USD 4 m/t – but even further down for the week as prices dropped by about USD 10 m/t for new crop soybeans. All the weakness was due to the improved weather forecasts for the corn belt. Soymeal too was down on the week, dropping as much as USD 12 m/t. According to the WASDE, world soybean ending stocks will be at record levels.
The USDA increased the ending stocks numbers for most wheat which helped to push prices lower for the week but the overall drop in wheat prices was minimal – no more than USD 2 or 3 m/t. Wheat prices in the USA (and the world) continue to follow developments in the Black Sea meaning that it is difficult to expect lower wheat prices when supply lines are so much in doubt.
Looking at USDA estimated farm gate prices – 2024 corn prices were forecasted as up by about USD 4 m/t with forecasted wheat average prices unchanged.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady | |
$24.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $32.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $33.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$42.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $35.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $48.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $47.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $25.00 | Steady | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $44.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $45.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $58.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $60.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $59.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $36.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $37.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $45 Ukraine $57 | ||
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $77 | ||
Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $35 Ukraine $56 | ||
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $17 Russia $44 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $15 Russia $34 Ukraine | | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $37 Russia $62 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $23 Russia $49 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $22 Russia $48 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $24 Russia $50 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $37 Russia $71 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $15 Russia $40 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $34.00 | Steady | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1129 | Down 7 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 1592 | Down 226 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1337 | Up 204 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 728 | Up 40 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 411 | Up 21 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1533 | Up 91 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2023/November 2023
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 250<<275 Nov | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 315<<335 Nov | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/215 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250/255 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 257<<267 Nov | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 325<<335 Nov | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 235/238 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 245/250 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 190/200 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 255/260 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 215<<225 Nov | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 245<<255 Nov | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 220/225 | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 251/254 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 275/280 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 245<<255 Nov | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 485>>475 Nov | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 525>>505 Nov | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 475<<480 Nov | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 500/505 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 460<<465 Nov | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 540>>525 Nov | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 520/525 | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 520/525 | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 520/525 Ukraine | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 640/650 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/230 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265/270 | |
DDGS FOB prices were steady in the week but CNF prices in containers were up by about USD 10 m/t due to higher container rates. Corn gluten meal prices varied quite a bit with indications from USD 640 to 670 FOB. Corn gluten feed looked to be a little weaker.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The new North/Central exploratory quota fishing is chugging along with some mini bans. The total quota is 1,091,000 m/t of catch (but with only 10 days fishing) which will be about 245,000 m/t of fishmeal and 13,000 m/t of fishoil – if the entire quota is landed, which is very unlikely. The catch up to August 10 was at 183,000 m/t.
Reports say that the juvenile fish level is very high in some areas which has resulted in mini bans. Some areas are seeing juvenile levels at 50% or more.
No one in the fishing industry is getting too excited about this short fishing period but, as the trade papers report, it is great to be able to cover some of the existing orders.
Buyers in China are said to be very happy as some of the existing order will be filled – later than expected but certainly better than 2024 shipment as was possible with no fishing.
PERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,245 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,890 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,125 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,125 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,190 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | No prices | |
67% protein 150 TVN | No prices | |
67% protein 120 TVN | No prices | 2300/2320 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | No prices | 2350/2370 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | No prices | 2400/2420 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,500/5,600 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 8,000/8,100 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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