Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 05, 2023
US corn prices finished the week down by about USD 13 m/t with soybeans down by about USD 17 m/t and soymeal down by USD 13 m/t. Wheat was actually the biggest loser of the week with US hard red winter wheat dropping by about USD 35 m/t while US spring wheat was down by about
USD 25 m/t.
Other than the Black Sea situation the US weather had an effect of grain prices as the next couple of weeks look to be full of rain in much of the US corn belt. Improved weather and lower export sales certainly put downward pressure on grain/oilseed prices.
The direction of prices over the next few weeks will probably be highly dependent on how the situation in the Black Sea develops. Will Russia continue to attack Ukraine grain facilities, will Ukraine be able to sink/damage more Russian vessels. And perhaps there will be some improvement in talks to get the Black Sea Grain Corridor working again --- or perhaps Russia has no interest.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $24.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$24.00 | Up $1.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $29.00 | Up $2.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $29.00 | Up $2.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Up $2.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $32.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$42.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $34.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Up $2.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $46.00 | Up $2.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $25.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $59.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $43.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $44.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $58.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $60.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $59.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $35.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $36.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $44 Ukraine $57 | ||
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $77 | ||
Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $35 Ukraine $56 | ||
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $18 Russia $43 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $15 Russia $37 Ukraine | | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $36 Russia $63 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $23 Russia $49 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $22 Russia $48 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $24 Russia $50 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $37 Russia $71 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $15 Russia $40 Ukraine | ||
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $34.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1136 | Up 26 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 1818 | Down 12 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1133 | Up 158 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 688 | Down 38 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 390 | Down 6 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1442 | Up 119 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2023/October 2023
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 247<<279 Nov | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 313<<334 Nov | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/215 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 245/250 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 255<<265 Nov | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 325<<335 Nov | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 232/235 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 260/265 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 200/210 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 250/255 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 215/220 | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 255/250 | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 205/210 | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 215/220 | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 274/277 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 215/220 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/215 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 270/275 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 245/255 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 505>>480 Nov | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 535>>510 Nov | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 485>>475 Nov | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 515/520 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 465<<470 Nov | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 545>>530 Nov | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 535/545 | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 535/540 | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 520>>480 Ukraine | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 630/640 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/235 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265/270 | |
With both corn and soymeal prices moving lower this week, all corn co-products were also lower DDGS prices to major import markets are reported to be down by USD 10 to 15 m/t with corn gluten meal prices down by at least USD 20 m/t. Corn gluten feed prices dropped by USD 10 to 15 m/t.
As long as the weakness continues in corn/soymeal prices then there should be export buying opportunities in co-products.
However, container prices are moving higher which could cause CNF prices to some destinations to remain steady.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well, there is going to be a little fishing after all with a limited fishing quota of 1.09 million m/t to be allowed from August 03 until August 13. The allowed fishing area has been officially advised and the actual fishing hours each day have been defined. So, at least there will be some catch during the 10 day period which should be of some benefit to the fishing/fishmeal industry in Peru.
Not everyone is happy with the new fishing announcement as the start of fishing was only a very few hours after the announcement, which gave very little time to get prepared to fish. Also, most are very unhappy that the fishing time is limited to 6PM to 6AM each day.
Some experts are saying that this limited quota with its restrictions could show very little in actual catch --- only time will tell. We will have a better idea next week.
There has still been no announcement of the new Southern Region fishing quota that will last until December 31.
PERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,245 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,885 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,120 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,120 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,200 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | No prices | |
67% protein 150 TVN | No prices | |
67% protein 120 TVN | No prices | 2300/2320 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | No prices | 2350/2370 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | No prices | 2400/2420 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,500/5,600 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 8,000/8,100 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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