Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 16, 2023
It was nice to see US corn exports of 71,000 m/t to Egypt reported this week as there hasn't been any significant amounts of US corn to Egypt in quite a while. It is hoped that there will be more US corn shipments to Egypt and to other North African destinations.
Market reports show that there is a build-up of "shorts" in the corn market which means that someone is expecting lower corn prices --- not too surprising as there seems to be lots of corn around and lots more expected.
There was talk in the soybean business that stocks are running low which could mean a rally in cash prices before we see the new US soybean crop. There are also some worries about the yields in the US crop which could help to push prices higher in days to come.
And then there are wheat prices which tend to run higher and lower on Black Sea stories and this week was a lower week. Some trade reports have said that the current low wheat prices are not logical as the expected longer term supply is less than had been expected and should push prices higher. It is difficult to know exactly where world wheat prices will go in the coming weeks as there are so many changing market factors.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| $26.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $32.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $32.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $33.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $34.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| $42.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $35.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $53.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $52.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $28.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $22.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $58.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $48.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $57.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $59.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55.00 | Up $4.00 |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $58.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $43.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $44.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $47.00 | steady |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $51 Russia | Ukraine $57 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $17 Russia | Ukraine $45 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $17 Russia | Ukraine $33 |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $49 Russia | Ukraine $61 |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $32 |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $25 Russia | Ukraine $48 |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $24 Russia | Ukraine $47 |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $26 Russia | Ukraine $49 |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $41 Russia | Ukraine $71 |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $76.00 | Up $4.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1381 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1602 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1656 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1221 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 634 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1389 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2023/December 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 261/265 |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 326/330 |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/215 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240/245 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 249<<260 Dec |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 290>>250 Dec |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 205/210 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 235/238 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 240/245 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 185/195 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 260/265 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 230>>220 Jan |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 240<<250 Jan |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220>>215 Jan |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 225>>220 Jan |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 232/235 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 200/210 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 185/190 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 255/260 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 485>>480 Dec |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 515>>510 Dec |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 475>>445 Jan |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 470>>450 Jan |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 535>>530 Jan |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 520>>485 Jan |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 540>>515 Jan |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 650/660 |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/230 |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 260>>255 Jan |
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Corn coproducts prices are difficult to determine this week due to the explosion at ADM Decatur which closed the corn processing facilities and caused a sudden jump in prices. Spot CGM prices jumped by about USD 100 m/t. ADM's corn processing facilities are expected to be back in operation shortly as they were not damaged by the explosion --- process should once again move back to a more normal level.
DDGS prices were a little lower in the week and were not affected by the ADM situation. Lower US corn prices were the main cause for lower FOB prices for DDGS. Trade reports say that corn prices may continue to move lower which should also affect corn coproduct prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Port fishmeal prices in China moved a little lower this week as importers try to attract some buying interest from feed mills. However, Chinese feed mills seem to be holding off buying in the hopes of lower prices before the next Peru fishing season.
China fishmeal consumption numbers show by MSI Ceres this week show total 2023 consumption estimates down by almost 19% to 1.67 million m/t. China's total fishmeal imports to the end of July 2023 were at 1.0 million m/t with Peru showing a 36% share followed by Vietnam at 13%. Russia, Chile, India, Thailand and Mexico were also significant fishmeal shippers to China.
Peru's fishmeal exports in 2023 are down by just over 50% in 2023 due to the limited fishing season and the reduced fishmeal supply. China still represents the major share at 79.6% of exports with total exports to Asia covering 86.3% of Peru's fishmeal exports.
Trade reports also note that world fishmeal prices are moving a little lower as prices in China drop. No one seems to be looking for higher prices in the short term.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,200 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,875 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,160 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,160 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,150 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 2250/2270 |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 2300/2320 |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 2350/2370 | 2040/2060 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 | 2070/2090 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2450.2470 | 2150/2120 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,300/5,400 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 9,200+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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