Hammersmith Reports
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Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW : hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Sorry but there will be no report next week, Sept 09, due to travel commitments, but all will be back to normal on the 16th.
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 02, 2023
Monday is a holiday in the USA – Labor Day – so the week will start off quietly.
This week was a down week for all grains and oilseeds – soymeal even moved lower for a change. USA corn was down by about USD 3 m/t on the week with soybeans down by USD 7 or 8 mt. while soymeal dropped by USD 13 to 15 m/t. USA winter wheat was down USD 10 to 15 m/t with spring wheat down by about USD 15 m/t.
Trade reports say that wheat prices were lower due to the estimates of the size of the Russian wheat crop and the fear that US wheat will not be competitive in export markets.
Corn prices didn’t do too much this week, but most experts wondered why prices didn’t move higher on the continued hot, dry weather in the US and the concerns over corn crop yields. Trade reports did say that it is tough for corn to move higher when wheat and soybeans are going lower – just too many sellers in the market. No one expects anything exciting with corn prices before the September WASDE report.
Comments on soybeans were similar to those on corn as experts wondered why prices dropped when the weather was expected to be reducing soybean yields. Export sales are good, weather is too hot and dry and prices shouldn’t be falling ----- the long term trend for US soybeans has got to be for higher prices.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$27.00 | Up $1.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $32.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $32.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $34.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $35.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$42.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $36.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $54.00 | Up $2.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $53.00 | Up $2.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $28.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Up $2.00 | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $22.00 | Down $2.00 | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $60.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $49.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $50.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $59.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $60.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $47.00 | steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $47 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $17 Russia | Ukraine $45 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $17 Russia | Ukraine $33 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $47 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $32 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $24 Russia | Ukraine $49 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $23 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $25 Russia | Ukraine $50 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $40 Russia | Ukraine $71 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $32.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $72.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1065 | Down 15 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 1032 | Down 142 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1478 | Up 29 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 980 | Up 72 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 541 | Up 34 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1527 | Down 3 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2023/November 2023
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 234<<257 Dec | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 309<<315 Dec | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/215 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 245/250 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 244<<257 Dec | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 290>>250 Dec | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 227/230 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 235/240 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 195/205 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 250/255 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 230>>225 Dec | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 255>>250 Dec | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 215/220 | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 225/230 | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 235/238 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 285/290 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 245/250 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 495>>485 Dec | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 525>>515 Dec | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 485>>480 Dec | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 515/515 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 465/470 | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 550>>545 Dec | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 540>>535 Dec | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 540>>525 Dec | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 650/660 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/230 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 275>>265 Dec | |
Nothing exciting with prices or supply with corn coproducts this week although the higher Mississippi river rates did increase DDGS prices by USD 5 to 10 m/t. Corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal were not affected by the river rates as they tend to ship in containers.
Prices will probably be steady to higher for a few weeks as USA internal freight rates are higher due to the demands to move the new crop. Some trade reports say that prices should ease a little in November/December once the harvest transport pressure is lower.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Russian fish farmers are asking for a ban on fishmeal and oil exports due to shortages in supply for aquaculture feed. Russia is trying to grow its aquafeed production but finds it difficult due to a lack of raw materials.
In Peru all is very quiet. The latest IMARPE research cruise has just started as a precursor to the next fishing season. The cruise could last into October.
There is quite a bit of trade talk about where the fishmeal price will be for presales against the next season with most comments being that Super Prime will probably be at USD 2,200 m/t, about where the prices from Chile are today – but no one really knows where producers will sell.
Trade reports also mention a lot of bad press against the Ministry of Produce due to the very poor way the recent fishing season was handled. Everyone seems to agree that things could have been done much better and that a fishing season could have been salvaged. Comments add that the Ministry does not pay enough attention to interests of the fishmeal industry and the industrial fishing fleet.
PERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,230 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,870 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,115 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,115 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,120 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 2250/2270 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 2300/2320 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2350/2370 | 2140/2160 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 | 2170/2190 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2450.2470 | 2200/2220 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,400/5,500 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 9,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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