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Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 23, 2023
According to trade reports, much of the weakness in soybeans and wheat was due to disappointing US export numbers --- it seems that US prices are too high to allow exports to compete well in world markets. Commodity speculators spent the end of the week selling off their long position in beans and wheat. Most reports are quite bearish on US beans and wheat for the coming weeks.
Of course, the strength in the US dollar is also making it more difficult for US beans and wheat to compete.
The problems with the Mississippi river are creating some problems for delivery to NOLA with barge weights having to be reduced by as much as 38% due to shallow draft in some spots. Needless to say, this will push the Mississippi barge rates higher while reducing river tonnage.
Trade reports mentioned this week that US corn prices are quite competitive in many world markets which could increase US corn export demand to the end of the year. So far in the 2023/24 marketing year in the EU, beginning July 01, about 3.2 million m/t of corn has been imported but with only 35,000 m/t from the US --- Ukraine, Brazil and Canada are the main corn suppliers to the EU.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $28.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
$28.00 | Up $2.00 | X | |
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $36.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $36.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $37.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $37.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $38.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
$42.00 | Steady | X | |
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $39.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $58.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $57.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $31.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
US PNW China: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | X |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady | X |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $22.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $51.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $58.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $60.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $48.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $43.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $44.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $47.00 | steady | X |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | X |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $53 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $17 Russia | Ukraine $45 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $17 Russia | Ukraine $32 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $50 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $42 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $26 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $25 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $27 Russia | Ukraine $49 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $44 Russia | Ukraine $71 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $34.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $80.00 | Up $4.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1593 | Up 212 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2083 | Up 481 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1685 | Up 29 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1355 | Up 134 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 670 | Up 36 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1251 | Down 138 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2023/December 2023
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 251/255 | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 308<<315 Jan | X |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240/245 | X |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 | X |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 249<<255 Dec | X |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 290>>250 Dec | X |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 205/210 | x |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 235/238 | X |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 240/245 | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 185/195 | X |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 265/270 | X |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 230>>225 Jan | X |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 240<<250 Jan | X |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 225>>215 Jan | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 225>>220 Jan | X |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 225/228 | X |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 195/205 | X |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/185 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 245/250 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 480>>470 Jan | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 510>>500 Jan | X |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 475>>435 Jan | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 500/505 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 460>>440 Jan | X |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 515>>510 Jan | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 525>>505 Jan | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 530>>500 Jan | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 675/685 | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/240 | x |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 280>>275 Dec | X |
DDGS prices were steady this week at quite high levels along with both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed --- all are still showing some effect of the accident at the ADM facility in Decatur. Ethanol production is down on the week as facilities are conducting the pre-harvest maintenance which is causing a drop in available DDGS supplies and keeping DDGS firm until near the end of 2023.
The low river water situation in the Mississippi is causing some cargo to move to rail from river barges and river barge prices are up by at least $5 m/t while rail shipping positions are tightening.
Spot DDGS FOB NOLA prices are reported to be up by as much as USD 9 m/t.
According to USDA information, DDGS exports are down by about 9% so far this crop year.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
According to recent trade calculations there is only about 30,000 m/t of fishmeal sales that will be rolled from the old season to the new. Fishmeal producers are said to be quite reluctant to book much in the way of business for the next season due to concerns about quotas and El Nino/Nina. Buyers too don’t seem to be very active in trying to pre-book shipments.
There has still been no new quota set for Southern Peru with all wondering why not.
According to final august Peru export numbers, China is at 79.6% of all export sales with all of Asia taking 86.4% of all fishmeal exports. China statistics show that Peru represents 32.2% of all China’s fishmeal imports, followed by Vietnam at 14.5% and Russia at 8.0%.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,175 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,850 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,150 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,150 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,120 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 2250/2270 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 2300/2320 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2350/2370 | 2040/2060 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 | 2070/2090 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2450.2470 | 2150/2120 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,300/5,400 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 9,200+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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