Hammersmith
Reports
3
Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Phone:
+33.6.8068.4564
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
FYI
– I will be attending the European Commodities Exchange in Warsaw, Poland next
week and hope to see some of my report readers there.
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND
PROTEIN REPORT October 07, 2023
This week ended with US
corn prices up by about USD 6 m/t while soybeans dropped by about USD 4 m/t and
soymeal by about USD 10 m/t. Wheat prices were up on the week with US soft red
winter wheat moving up by about USD 9 m/t with hard red winter wheat and spring
wheat up by USD 4 m/t.
According to trade
reports, everyone was surprised to see higher prices for corn this week as the
harvest period normally brings lower prices. Exports say that it was strong
corn export levels that moved prices higher. There were also some comments in
the trade that next week’s WASDE report could be bullish for corn as US corn
export level projections may move higher.
US soybean prices
slipped again this week as Brazil is just too competitive in export markets and
US prices must be lower to book export sales. Looking at price levels price
competition will be even more difficult come the new South American soybean
crop in early 2024.
Wheat prices were higher
on the week but still look to be in a long-term downward trend. The jump on the
week is said to be due to strong export sales. Of course, wheat prices are up
and down depending on what is happening in the Black Sea. These days it looks
like Russia is doing its best to stop Ukraine Black Sea grain facilities from
operating.
Estimated
Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax |
$29.00 |
Up $1.00 |
X |
$29.00 |
Up $1.00 |
X |
|
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t |
$36.00 |
Steady |
X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax
|
$36.00 |
Steady |
X |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax
m/t |
$37.00 |
Steady |
X |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi |
$37.00 |
Steady |
X |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi |
$38.00 |
Steady |
X |
$42.00 |
Steady |
X |
|
US Gulf other Med: Handi |
$39.00 |
Steady |
X |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi |
$41.00 |
Steady |
x |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax |
$52.00 |
Steady |
x |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax |
$58.00 |
Steady |
X |
US Gulf China: Panamax |
$57.00 |
Steady |
X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t |
$65.00 |
Steady |
X |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax |
$39.00 |
Steady |
X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax |
$31.00 |
Steady |
X |
US PNW China: Panamax |
$30.00 |
Steady |
X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize |
$45.00 |
Steady |
X |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t |
$57.00 |
Up $5.00 |
x |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t |
$66.00 |
Up $5.00 |
x |
|
|
|
|
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi |
$30.00 |
Steady |
X |
France/Germany to China: Panamax |
$82.00 |
Steady |
X |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax
|
$31.00 |
Steady |
x |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax |
$45.00 |
Steady |
X |
France/Germany to Jordan |
$37.00 |
Steady |
X |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi |
$29.00 |
Steady |
X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax |
$62.00 |
Steady |
X |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi |
$33.00 |
Steady |
X |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi |
$64.00 |
Steady |
X |
|
|
|
|
Argentina to Algeria: Handi |
$61.00 |
Up $1.00 |
X |
Argentina to China: Panamax |
$50.00 |
Down $1.00 |
X |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax |
$51.00 |
Down $1.00 |
X |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax |
$51.00 |
Steady |
X |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax |
$37.00 |
Steady |
x |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi |
$60.00 |
Up $1.00 |
X |
Argentina to Libya: Handi |
$62.00 |
Up $1.00 |
X |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax |
$55.00 |
Steady |
X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia:
Panamax |
$64.00 |
Steady |
X |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax |
$61.00 |
Steady |
X |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax |
$59.00 |
Steady |
X |
Argentina to South Africa:
Panamax |
$35.00 |
Steady |
X |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi |
$55.00 |
Steady |
X |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax |
$37.00 |
Steady |
X |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi |
$61.00 |
Up $1.00 |
X |
|
|
|
|
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi |
$48.00 |
Steady |
X |
Brazil to China: Panamax |
$42.00 |
Down $1.00 |
X |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax |
$43.00 |
Down $1.00 |
X |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax |
$48.00 |
Steady |
X |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax |
$39.00 |
Steady |
X |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi |
$47.00 |
steady |
X |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax |
$61.00 |
Steady |
X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000
m/t |
$63.00 |
Steady |
X |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax |
$39.00 |
Steady |
X |
Brazil to
Turkey/Egypt: Panamax |
$58.00 |
Steady |
X |
|
|
|
|
Australia to Saudi: Panamax |
$52.00 |
Steady |
X |
Australia to Europe: Panamax |
$61.00 |
Steady |
X |
|
|
|
|
Black Sea
freight |
|
|
|
Black Sea to China: Panamax |
$53 Russia |
Ukraine $57 |
|
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax |
$60 Russia |
Ukraine $77 |
|
Black Sea to Bangladesh: Panamax |
$35 Russia |
Ukraine $56 |
|
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 |
$19 Russia |
Ukraine $40 |
|
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 |
$20 Russia |
Ukraine $29 |
|
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax |
$47 Russia |
Ukraine $61 |
|
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax |
$29 Russia |
Ukraine $42 |
|
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi |
$27 Russia |
Ukraine $48 |
|
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria –
Handi |
$26 Russia |
Ukraine $47 |
|
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax |
$37 Russia |
Ukraine $53 |
|
Black Sea to Libya – Handi |
$27 Russia |
Ukraine $49 |
|
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax |
$43 Russia |
Ukraine $71 |
|
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi |
$16 Russia |
Ukraine $30 |
|
|
|
|
|
Black Sea to South Africa –
Handi |
$57.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)–
coaster 5,000 m/t |
$34.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000
m/t |
$62.00 |
Steady |
|
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster
5,000 m/t |
$33.00 |
Steady |
|
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000
m/t |
$81.00 |
Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Baltic
Dry Index |
1929 |
Up 228 |
|
Baltic
Capesize Index |
3309 |
Up 835 |
|
Baltic
Panamax Index |
1572 |
Down 129 |
|
Baltic
Supramax Index |
1233 |
Down 43 |
|
Baltic
Handisize Index |
675 |
Down 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Global
Container Index - Freightos |
1088 |
Down 88 |
|
|
|
|
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified.
Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2023/December 2023
Wheat, USA
Soft Red Winter, US Gulf |
USD 250/255 |
X |
Wheat, USA
Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf |
USD 300/305 |
X |
Wheat,
Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t |
USD 190/195 |
X |
Wheat,
Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t |
USD 240/245 |
X |
Wheat,
Romania 12.5 pro |
USD 245/250 |
X |
Wheat,
Superior, France, Rouen |
USD 243/246 |
X |
Wheat,
milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver |
USD 270>>250
Jan |
X |
Wheat,
feed, Black Sea |
USD 205/210 |
X |
|
|
|
Barley,
France, Rouen port |
USD 228/231 |
X |
Barley,
feed, Argentina, upriver |
USD 240/245 |
X |
Barley,
feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ |
USD 180/190 |
X |
Barley,
feed, Australia |
USD 260/265 |
X |
|
|
|
Corn, 2YC
FOB NOLA USA |
USD 235>>230 Jan |
X |
Corn, 3YC
FOB USA Pacific northwest |
USD 250<<255 Jan |
X |
Corn, FOB
Argentina port, upriver |
USD 225<<230 Jan |
X |
Corn, FOB
Brazil port |
USD 230<<235 Jan |
X |
Corn, FOB
France – Atlantic |
USD 222/225 |
X |
Corn, FOB
Romania |
USD 190/195 |
X |
Corn, FOB
Russia |
USD 205/210 |
X |
Corn, FOB
Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t |
USD 165/170 |
X |
Sorghum,
FOB Argentina port |
USD 285/290 |
X |
Sorghum,
FOB Texas |
USD 272/275 |
X |
|
|
|
Soymeal,
48% protein, FOB NOLA |
USD 460>>450 Jan |
X |
Soymeal,
48% protein, USA, Rotterdam |
USD 490>>480 Jan |
X |
Soymeal,
47% pro, FOB Argentina |
USD 455>>425 Feb |
X |
Soymeal,
48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot |
USD 480/485 |
X |
Soymeal,
48% protein, FOB Brazil |
USD 440>>420 Feb |
X |
|
|
|
Soybeans,
FOB NOLA |
USD 490<<505 Feb |
X |
Soybeans,
Argentina, FOB |
USD 515>>455 Feb |
X |
Soybeans,
Brazil, FOB |
USD 495>>455 Feb |
X |
Soybeans,
Black Sea |
No prices |
|
|
|
|
Corn
Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA |
USD 670/680 |
X |
Corn
Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA |
USD 230/240 |
X |
DDGS corn,
35 profat, USA FOB NOLA |
USD 265>>260
Dec |
x |
|
|
|
There wasn’t a great deal of change in corn
coproduct prices this week. DDGS prices are said to be steady to slightly
higher while both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal remained steady.
With soymeal prices lower on the week there
was some price pressure for lower level felt but due to higher corn prices
there was no actual weakness seen in prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
“INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
There is still no fishing quota set by Peru
for fishing in the southern region of the country. We all just keep waiting.
Because there is not too much to talk about
between fishing seasons, all the trade reports are giving very long reports and
comments on the El Nino situation for months to come. The situation looks to be
close to 50% for a moderate El Nino event between December 2023 and March 2024
which may not have any effect on the actual fishing periods for end 2023 and
start 2024.
China is closed for holidays this week so
nothing new from there.
MSI Ceres mentioned this week that the Peru
press has been speculating that there may not be another fishing season in
2023. However, we all need to wait for the results of the IMARPE survey.
Trade reports say that there has been some
buying interest for the next fishing season but at prices close to USD 200 m/t
lower than the prices shown below. Needless to say, producers are not booking
any business at these levels. No one expects much trade activity until we get a
new quota for October or November start.
European
fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type |
Protein % |
Price per m/t USD |
Herring
fishmeal |
72%
protein |
2,150 |
Danish
fishmeal |
64%
protein |
1,840 |
Peru
fishmeal |
64%
protein |
2,150 |
Chile
fishmeal |
67% protein |
2,150 |
Iceland
fishmeal |
70%
protein |
2,110 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON
VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification |
Price per
m/t FOB Vessel Peru port |
Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
65% protein standard steam |
2250/2270 |
|
67% protein 150 TVN |
2300/2320 |
|
67% protein 120 TVN |
2350/2370 |
2000/2020 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN |
2400/2420 |
2050/2070 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN |
2450.2470 |
2100/2120 |
|
|
|
Fish oil, crude bulk |
No prices |
5,200/5,300 |
Fish oil, crude drums |
No prices |
No
prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank |
No prices |
No
prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA |
9,200+ |
No prices |
INFORMATION:
gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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