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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 21, 2023
It was no surprise that, after moving higher and higher all week, US soybeans and soymeal both had a weaker day on Friday. Soymeal prices have increased on 8 of the last 10 trading days. While the market doesn’t look much like moving lower many experts can’t understand why soybeans and soymeal are so strong. US soybeans finished the week up by USD 7 m/t with soymeal up by close to USD 30 m/t --- pretty strong markets.
USA corn prices were up during the week then had a down day on Friday and finished the week with prices almost unchanged from the week before. US corn export numbers are up, and US corn is now competitive in a number of markets. Exports are about 50/50 on which way prices will now go on corn.
USA wheat had a somewhat quiet week – it was up a little through Thursday but then fell back to about unchanged on Friday. Overall, for US wheat, it was an uneventful week.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady | |
$29.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $35.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $36.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $36.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $37.00 | Steady | |
$42.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $38.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $57.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $57.00 | Steady | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Up $5.00 | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69.00 | Up $3.00 | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $28.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $61.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $49.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $50.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $50.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $36.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $60.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $62.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $36.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $61.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $47.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $41.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $42.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $38.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $46.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $38.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $57.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $53 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Bangladesh: Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $21 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $22 Russia | Ukraine $29 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $46 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $36 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $27 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $26 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $27 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $44 Russia | Ukraine $67 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $31.00 | Steady | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $79.00 | Steady | |
Baltic Dry Index | 2046 | Up 101 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 3556 | Up 227 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1638 | Up 71 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1287 | Up 19 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 686 | Down 1 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1048 | Down 25 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2023/January 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 259/262 | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 299/302 | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225/230 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 245/250 | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 255/258 | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 265>>255 Jan | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 205/210 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 232/235 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/235 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/180 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 255/260 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 225/230 | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 245/250 | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220/225 | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 225/230 | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 222/225 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 160/165 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 270/275 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 520>>500 Feb | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 550>>530 Feb | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 515>>470 Feb | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 535/540 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 510>>460 Feb | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 505<<515 Feb | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 545>>475 Feb | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 520>>475 Feb | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 685/695 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 240/245 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 250>>245 Feb | |
Soymeal prices were strong again this week which put some upward pressure on prices for corn gluten meal and DDGS. CGF FOB prices look to be up by close to USD 10 m/t while DDGS prices were up by about USD 5 m/t in NOLA.
Supplies for all corn coproducts is good with no shortages seen with higher protein prices being a very major in where demand is going. Export customers are more difficult to find with these higher price levels and most seem to be buying small lots or waiting and hoping for lower export prices.
Major markets for CGM, like Egypt, are not buying up to the normal levels --- with Egypt it is mainly a currency problem that is made worse by high CNF prices and high local inflation.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Trade reports say that in Peru there is an “unofficial” quota document floating around that shows a quota of 1.682 million m/t and a start date of October 26. This is all 100% unofficial and may mean absolutely nothing. However, there are a number of people who say that this is probably the actual quota information. We will hear all next week, one assume.
The Peruvian government will have a 5 day exploratory fishing period starting on October 21 which is expected to lead to the “official” quota.
Fishmeal prices are unchanged in Peru and, according to trade reports, unchanged in China too. But the offtake in China is lower as the aqua season has ended.
The IFFO is having its annual conference in Cape Town, South Africa on October 23/25 ---- about the same time as the new Peru fishing quota could be announced. Perhaps there will be a lot of buying and selling done in South Africa. Quite a long list of very good speakers at the conference.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,160 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,840 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,155 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,155 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,055 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 2250/2270 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 2300/2320 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2350/2370 | 2000/2020 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 | 2050/2070 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2450.2470 | 2100/2120 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,200/5,300 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 9,200+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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