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Sorry to be a day late with this week’s report but didn’t get back from the ECE in Warsaw until late on Saturday. The ECE was very good, except for some serious technical hitches for registration and bad planning for transportation. The difficulty is in meeting the people you want to see in a crowd of 3,000 --- not an easy task.
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 14, 2023
USDA WASDE report week always tends to be quite exciting. Corn numbers were a little bullish but not enough to push US corn prices higher. The corn week ended with prices steady. Trade reports seem to feel that corn prices are more likely to move higher than lower in coming weeks.
Soybeans and soymeal were about the most active commodities this week with both rushing ahead on bullish WASDE numbers then drifting back a little as the week ended. Soybeans were still up by about USD 7 to 8 m/t while soymeal finished the week around USD 20 m/t higher. It seems that new export sales of soymeal got the market rallying. Experts are looking for soymeal to continue to higher levels.
The WASDE wheat report was considered bearish for US wheat but that didn’t stop a wheat market rally that seems to be due to new export sales. Most of the rally in wheat prices, except for SRW wheat, reversed as the week ended leaving most wheat prices steady or a little lower with SRW up by about USD 3 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady | |
$29.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $35.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $35.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $36.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $36.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $37.00 | Down $1.00 | |
$42.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $38.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $57.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $57.00 | Steady | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $30.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $55.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $66.00 | Down $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $28.00 | Down $3.00 | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $62.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $49.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $50.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $63.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $62.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $43.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $47.00 | steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $53 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Bangladesh: Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $20 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $22 Russia | Ukraine $29 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $46 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $39 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $27 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $26 Russia | Ukraine $46 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $44 Russia | Ukraine $71 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $31.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $79.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1945 | Up 16 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 3327 | Up 18 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1567 | Down 5 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1268 | Up 35 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 687 | Up 12 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1073 | Down 15 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2023/January 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 257/260 | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 299/305 | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/235 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 220/230 | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 243/246 | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 265>>250 Jan | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 205/210 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 235/238 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 235/240 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 170/175 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 255/260 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 231>>225 Feb | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 245<<250 Feb | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 215<<220 Feb | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 225<<215 Feb | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 215/218 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 195/200 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 165/170 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 272/275 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 480>>465 Feb | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 520>>495 Feb | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 485>>440 Feb | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 500/505 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 460>>435 Feb | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 495<<505 Feb | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 520>>460 Feb | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 510>>465 Feb | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 680/690 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 235/240 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 255/260 | |
While DDGS prices moved a little lower this week on larger supply both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were a little higher. Corn gluten meal was following soymeal prices higher while increased winter feeding demand seemed to be pushing CGF prices up.
DDGS too is seeing increased demand in US domestic markets as buyers are building stocks that will be used in feed rations over the snowy winter months. Feed demand always increases in winter months as grass for munching is much harder come by.
US export DDGS FOB prices are also lower as barge rates on the Mississippi River to NOLA have weakened quite a bit. Spot prices for DDGS in NOLA have dropped by close to USD 15 in a couple of weeks.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
The IMARPE research survey that is currently being conducted in Peru is expected to finish around the 25th of October at the latest then perhaps there will be sufficient information to allow a decision on the new fishing quota. However, trade reports say that there is a meeting set for next week to discuss current biomass information --- so perhaps we are not too far away from a new quota/
Discussions in the trade seem to lean to a new quota between 1 million and 1.3 million m/t. Looking back on previous years this would be quite a small quota level.
China is now back to work after its “golden week” holidays, but the trade sees little activity in the fishmeal market in China with the local prices moving a little lower in the hopes of getting some trade moving.
Prices in Peru are steady again this week with little or no activity for pre-quota sales.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,150 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,840 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,150 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,150 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,110 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 2250/2270 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 2300/2320 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2350/2370 | 2000/2020 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 | 2050/2070 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2450.2470 | 2100/2120 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,200/5,300 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 9,200+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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