Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- JUNE 01, 2024
Well, that was quite a down week wasn’t it – US corn prices down by about USD 8 m/t, soybeans down by a big USD 15 m/t, soymeal down by more than USD 20 m/t. US winter what down by as much as USD 7 m/t with spring wheat down by about USD 5 m/t ---- everything was down on the week.
Considering that it was a short week in the US due to the Monday holiday, a lot of activity happened in only 4 days.
With US corn, the planting is racing along – recent rainfall is good – and pressure is building on prices. Brazil’s harvest too is putting pressure on US corn prices in export markets. Lower than expected corn exports for the week also probably added some downward pressure on corn prices. Experts are saying that corn prices could easily move lower.
Soybean planting in the US is about completed and the weather looks good for starting things off. Exports of soybeans were lower on the week with total year to date soybean exports down a little from 2022/23. Soybean crushing is expected to be down in next week’s April crush report with the year to date down by at least 6%. Trade reports also mentioned that US soybean plantings could be higher than recent estimates, which is also bearish for prices.
The US had slow old crop wheat sales this week but new crop sales were higher than trade estimates. Prices were lower on the week overall as the market seemed to feel that US wheat production could be higher than estimates. International prices for wheat were also lower this week in most markets – probably a reaction in lower buying and fewer tenders due to recent wheat price increases seen for Black Sea wheat. Overall, world wheat prices continue to look bullish.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Down $1.00 | |
$26.00 | Down $1.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $25.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $25.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $26.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $37.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $38.00 | Down $1.00 | |
$32.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $39.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf India : Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $50.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama | $50.00 | Steady | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $26.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $48.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $54.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $71.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $42.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $50.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $48.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $44.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $43.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $46.00 | Down $1,00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $42.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $70.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Italy -- Handisize | $46.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize | $47.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Japan – Handisize | $42.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to China -- Handisize | $43.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $57 Russia | Ukraine $55 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $57 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $16 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $18 Russia | Ukraine $27 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $48 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $26 Russia | Ukraine $37 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $52 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $48 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $19 Russia | Ukraine $25 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $55 Russia | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $28.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $52.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $60.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $59.00 | Steady | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1815 | Up 18 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2820 | Up 207 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1693 | Down 131 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1278 | Down 48 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 720 | Up 32 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 3487 | Up 74 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2024/August 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 266<<275 Sep | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 282<<290 Sep | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240<<245 Sep | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250<<255 Sep | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 270<<275 Sep | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 276<<280 Sep | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 290>>285 Sep | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/230 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 230/233 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 230/235 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 195/200 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 265/270 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 197<<202 Sep | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 220<<225 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 190>>185 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 200<<205 Sep | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 253<<257 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 225<<230 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205<<210 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205<<210 Sep | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 260/270 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 245<<250 Sep | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 450>>430 Sep | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 480>>460 Sep | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 415>>405 Sep | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 475/480 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 415>>405 Sep | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 465>>460 Sep | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 450>>445 Sep | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 460>>455 Sep | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 465>>455 Sep | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 540/550 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/220 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/225 | |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
The Peru fishing quota looks more and more like being completed --- we are now at close to 2.2 million m/t landed with less than 300,000 m/t to full quota --- looks good.
Fishmeal production the fishing period is estimated at 485,000 m/t to date along with about 75,000 m/t of fishoil.
According to trade reports the amount of new business has dropped this, they say, is due to the very little Super Prime and Prime fishmeal available. It is expected that the higher grade prices will increase further in the coming days. There have been comments that Super and Prime prices can move higher by at least USD 50 m/t with some saying that USD 100 m/t could also be reached.
MSI Ceres mentioned this week that Peru standard quality fishmeal has to compete with supplies from other origins and that these origins “often have better TVN and even lower histamine values”. Peru will have to fight hard for this “standard” business which could mean aggressive export prices.
Soon the current fishing quota will be complete then we will have several months of selling, selling and selling and lots of export shipment logistics. Busy logistics and sales times ahead.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard Herring | 64% protein | 1,730 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,910 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,660 |
Chile fishmeal | 66% protein | 1,690 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,900 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1620/1640 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1700/1720 | 1700/1720 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1770 | 1750/1770 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1800/1820 | 1800/1820 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 8,000/8,500 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
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