Saturday, June 15, 2024

Weekly Report --- June 15, 2024

 

Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- JUNE 15, 2024

 

A lot of USA grain experts are now looking very closely at the weather and seeing quite a bit of hot and dry weather in coming days --- so far this is short term but could become longer term which should certainly help to push prices higher. According to the weather people we look to be going into a La Nina period which could mean warm and dry weather into September.

 

At the moment everything seems to look good for world corn --- Argentina has a big crop, Ukraine is looking for a corn crop higher than early estimates and US corn is having some good weather. On the corn export side, US corn is very price competitive and every week brings new business from Spain where US corn had not been competitive for quite a while.

 

Soybean prices slipped lower on Friday with experts saying that it was the speed of planting and the near end of planting that put pressure on US soybean/soymeal prices. The new tax situation in Brazil has pushed some soybean buying interest to the US market. China is reported to be nosing around for some more US old crop soybeans.

 

US wheat prices continued to slip lower --- US hard red wheat is reported to now have had 11 down trading days in the past 13 days. US wheat export shippers are saying that US wheat is currently very competitive in some markets and they see good export volumes in coming days. Trade reports say that the yields of US winter wheat are higher than expected with the overall quality higher than some had forecasted.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$26.00

Up $2.00

 

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$26.00

Up $2.00

 

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$27.00

Up $1.00

 

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$27.00

Up $1.00

 

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$28.00

Up $1.00

 

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Up $2.00

 

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Up $2.00

 

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$31.00

Steady

 

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$41.00

Up $2.00

 

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

 

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$50.00

Up $1.00

 

US Gulf China: Panamax

$49.00

Up $1.00

 

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$50.00

Steady

 

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

 

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$27.00

Up $1.00

 

US PNW China: Panamax

$26.00

Up $1.00

 

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$48.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$54.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$41.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$35.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$49.00

Steady

 

Argentina to China: Panamax

$51.00

Up $3.00

 

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$52.00

Up $3.00

 

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$52.00

Down $1.00

 

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$26.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$48.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$49.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

 

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$26.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$49.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$43.00

Steady

 

Brazil to China: Panamax

$48.00

Up $3,00

 

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$49.00

Up $3.00

 

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$42.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$63.00

Up $1.00

 

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$72.00

Up $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$42.00

Steady

 

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$57 Russia

Ukraine $55

 

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$59 Russia

Ukraine $77

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$16 Russia

Ukraine $24

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$17 Russia

Ukraine $27

 

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$45 Russia

Ukraine $61

 

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $37

 

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$26 Russia

Ukraine $41

 

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

 

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $52

 

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$26 Russia

Ukraine $41

 

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$45 Russia

Ukraine $70

 

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$18 Russia

Ukraine $26

 

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$19.00

Down $6.00

 

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$49.00

Steady

 

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

$59.00

Down $1.00

 

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$54.00

Down $2.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1948

Up 67

 

Baltic Capesize Index

2957

Up 59

 

Baltic Panamax Index

1950

Up 200

 

Baltic Supramax Index

1335

Up 81

 

Baltic Handisize Index

711

Down 3

 

 

 

 

 

Global Container Index - Freightos

4117

Up 64

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2024/September 2024

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 242<<263 Oct

 

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 254<<274 Oct      

 

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 230<<235 Oct

 

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 237<<240 Oct 

 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 240<<245 Oct   

 

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

USD 253<<257 Oct      

 

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 280>>270 Oct     

 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 220/230      

 

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 211/214

 

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 225/230

 

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 185/190

 

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 260/265

 

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 200<<210 Oct 

 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 230<<235 Oct  

 

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 195<<200 Oct  

 

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 205<<210 Oct 

 

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

USD 232-235 Spot

 

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 210<<215 Oct

 

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 200<<205 Oct

 

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 195<<200 Oct

 

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 260/270

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 250<<255 Oct

 

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 470>>425 Oct  

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 500>>455 Oct  

 

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 415>>400 Oct     

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 480/485

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 410>>395 Oct 

 

 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 460>>450 Oct

 

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 445>>440 Oct

 

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 450>>445 Oct

 

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 450<<460 Oct

 

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 550/560

 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215/220

 

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 220/225 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Well, here we are down to the end of the current Peru North/Central fishing season with only about 60,000 m/t left open on the quota ----- certainly a good result for everyone this season. There was even some new catch in the South of Peru with the total catch up to 8,900 MT leaving 242,000 MT on the Southern quota until the end on June 30.

 

Trade reports this week say that the prices for all grades below Super Prime and Prime will move lower as sellers have to try to convince buyers to take the lower grades. However, with little of the higher grades available buyer in Peru will have to buy lower grades or look to other origins.

 

Producers have not been aggressive sellers nor have buyer been pushing strongly --- there has been no reason as fishmeal stocks are not high and buyer’s inventories are not low.

 

Some of the trade reports this week were looking forward to the next fishing season and anticipating another good fishing season due to high biomass levels ---- this could very well be but it is too soon to know.

 

You would have to look far and wide to find anyone who is unhappy with the fishmeal situation in Peru this fishing period --- that is except for the low stocks of Super Prime and Prime.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,720

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

1,915

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,670

Chile fishmeal

66% protein

1,700

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

1,920

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1550/1570

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1600/1620

 

   67% protein 120 TVN

1700/1720

1700/1720

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1750/1770

1750/1770

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1900/1920

1800/1820

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

5,500

5,000

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

7,000/7,500

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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