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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- JULY 13, 2024
USDA WASDE this week --- corn was down about $4 m/t on the week, soybeans down by $22 to 25 m/t, soymeal down by $20 m/t and most wheat down by as much as $15 m/t ---- certainly a down week.
Overall the WASDE report was bearish for everything but didn’t seem to be too much of a surprise as the numbers were quite close to trade estimates prior to the report.
US corn production is seen as down by 1.6% in the WASDE while ending corn stocks are up by 11.7% For US soybeans, production is seen as up 6.5% with ending stocks up by 26.1%. Wheat too was bearish as production is seen increasing by 10.8% with ending stocks up by 21.9%.
On the “world” side of things, soybean production is seen as up by 6.7% and ending stocks up by 14.8%. Corn and wheat “world” numbers were largely unchanged.
There was some discussion in trade reports that corn prices could have hit bottom for now with a rally (short-term) expected. Reports also said that soybeans look to continue the path to lower prices --- just too many beans and too few exports resulting in heavy ending stocks. There was a comment in trade reports that the world wheat situation may be tighter than the USDA forecast and that wheat prices could move higher in coming weeks.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
$25.00 | Down $1.00 | ||
$25.00 | Down $1.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Up $4.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Up $4.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $34.00 | Up $4.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $47.00 | Steady | |
$36.00 | Up $1.00 | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $48.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf India : Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $50.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama | $51.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $25.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $54.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $70.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $40.00 | Down $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $42.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $36.00 | Up $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $46.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $50.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $45.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $46.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $46.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $43.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $46.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $42.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $65.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $74.00 | Up $1.00 | |
South Africa to Italy -- Handisize | $46.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize | $47.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Japan – Handisize | $42.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to China -- Handisize | $43.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $57 Russia | Ukraine $54 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $18 Russia | Ukraine $26 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $18 Russia | Ukraine $27 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $50 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $26 Russia | Ukraine $35 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $30 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $52 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $30 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $47 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $19 Russia | Ukraine $26 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $55 Russia | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $18.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $49.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $59.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $43.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1997 | Up 31 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 3296 | Down 43 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1678 | Up 132 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1364 | Up 39 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 741 | Down 22 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 5181 | Up 159 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2024/October 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 221<<232 Oct | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 245<<260 Oct | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210<<215 Oct | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 220<<225 Oct | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 230<<235 Oct | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 235<<240 Oct | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 265>>255 Oct | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 200/210 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 210/215 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/180 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 245/250 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 185<<195 Oct | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 210<<215 Oct | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 180>>170 Oct | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 190<<195 Oct | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 247-250 Spot | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 200>>190 Oct | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 195<<200 Oct | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 185<<190 Oct | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 260/270 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 233<<238 Oct | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 420>>385 Oct | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 470>>430 Oct | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 365>>360 Oct | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 440/445 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 375>>365 Oct | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 440>>420 Oct | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 420<<435 Oct | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 430<<440 Oct | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 440<<445 Oct | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 565/575 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/215 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215/220 | |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Fishing in the Southern Region of Peru is now up to 12,200 m/t leaving 239,000 m/t open on the new July to December fishing quota. Weather is reported to have been difficult for fishing some days.
The final total for the North/Central fishing is at 2.43 million MT. Fishmeal yield is estimated to be 565,000 m/t. The trade estimates that sales could be as high as 555,000 m/t, which leaves little or nothing for sale.
There is lots of talk about the size of the next North/Central fishing quota with estimates from a low of 1.7 million m/t to over 2.0 million m/t.
Total fishmeal exports to the end of June are at 448,000 m/t with China getting 406,000 m/t. What would we do without China? Single buyer markets are always a big worry.
There has been some talk about a possible La Nina event near the end of 2024 which could affect the next fishing season but it is too early to know for sure.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard Herring | 64% protein | 1,775 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,995 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,655 |
Chile fishmeal | 66% protein | 1,685 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,985 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1500/1520 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1550/1570 | |
67n% protein 120 TVN | 1600/1620 | 1620/1640 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 | 1670/1690 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1800/180 | 1800/1820 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | 5,500 | 5,000/5,300 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 6,500/7,000 | 6,300/6,500 |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
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