Saturday, September 14, 2024

Weekly Report -- September 14, 2024

 

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- September 14, 2024

 

This week was USDA-WASDE week once again and most experts feel that there was not much in the report to get the market excited.

 

WASDE USA corn production is steady but some experts feel that the yield numbers will have to fall in coming months due to the continued dry weather in parts of the corn belt.

 

Looking at prices after the WASDE, late on Friday, we see corn prices up by about USD 2m/t on the week, soybeans pretty well unchanged, soymeal down by about USD 2 m/t while US hard winter wheat was up by between USD 3 and 7 m/t depending on the grade. USA spring wheat was also up by about USD 7 m/t.

 

Wheat prices were higher due more to the Russia/Ukraine situation than any change in the USA situation. The attack by Russia on a Ukraine grain vessel was enough to get the market moving higher.

 

Soybeans had tried to move prices higher after the WASDE report but that didn’t hold as prices on Friday slipped a little lower.

 

USA corn prices moved a little higher, also on the black Sea situation and on the slightly tighter corn ending stocks seen in the WASDE report. Experts seem to feel that corn prices may have reached the bottom for now. The continued worries about the Mississippi River situation will probably keep FOB NOLA prices firm.

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$22.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$22.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$32.00

Steady

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$32.00

Steady

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$33.00

Steady

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$48.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$49.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$38.00

Steady

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$50.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$45.00

Down $2.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$44.00

Down $2.00

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$51.00

Steady

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$24.00

Down $1.00

US PNW China: Panamax

$23.00

Down $1.00

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$55.00

Down $2.00

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$61.00

Down $2.00

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$43.00

Down $2.00

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$44.00

Down $2.00

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$41.00

Steady

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$42.00

Down $1.00

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$52.00

Down $2.00

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$42.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$52 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$53 Russia

Ukraine $67

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$18 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$17 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$45 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $34

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$30 Russia

Ukraine $41

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$29 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $52

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$30 Russia

Ukraine $41

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$47 Russia

Ukraine $70

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$19 Russia

Ukraine $24

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $46

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$28.00

Up $3.00

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$47.00

Steady

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$47.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1890

Down 51

Baltic Capesize Index

3089

Down 267

Baltic Panamax Index

1428

Up 134

Baltic Supramax Index

1264

Up 4

Baltic Handisize Index

707

Down 17

 

 

 

Freightos Container Index

5019

Down 48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2024/December 2024

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 250<<260 Dec

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 265<<270 Dec      

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 215<<220 Dec

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 217<<227 Dec 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 240<<245 Dec   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 248<<252 Dec      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 255>>225 Dec

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 205/210      

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 220/225

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 200/205

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 190/195

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 205>>200 Dec 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 215<<220 Dec  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 190<<195 Dec  

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 205<<205 Dec

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 237/241 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 190<<195 Dec

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 200<<210 Dec

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 200<<205 Dec

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 250/260

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 235>>230 Dec

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 395<<400 Dec  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 421<<426 Dec  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 380<<385 Dec     

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 440/445 spot

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 395>>375 Dec 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 410<<415 Dec

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 415<<420 Dec

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 430<<435 Dec

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 420<<430 Dec

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 540/550

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 210/220

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215/225 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Adjusted Peru fishmeal export numbers show a total of 672.700 m/t shipped to the end of July 2024. 652,400 m/t were sent to Asia ---- 615,000 to China and 24,000 to Japan. Early shipment estimates for August are at 109,000 m/t – with 99,000 m/t to China. China represents close to 92% of total Peru fishmeal exports so far in 2024.

 

Estimated fishmeal prices in Peru seem to be about USD 50 m/t lower this week – probably because fishmeal prices in China are moving a little lower due to the large stocks on hand and more on the way.

 

There is still no fishmeal trading being done in Peru --- no stock and no certainty about the next fishing season. Most trade reports seem to feel that prices could move a little lower depending on the size of the next Peru fishing quota late in October.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,665

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

2,120

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

No prices

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,720

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,120

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1400/1420

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1500/1520

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1550/1570

1550/1570

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1600/1620

1600/1620

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1650/1670

1650/1670

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

4,500/4,800

3,100/3,200

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

5,000/5,500

6,300/6,500

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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