Saturday, September 21, 2024

Weekly Report --- September 21, 2024

 

 

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- September 21, 2024

 

Nearby USA corn prices moved up by about USD 4 m/t this week while corn prices were steady going into 2025. US soybeans moved higher by about USD 10 m/t with soymeal up by only a dollar or two. US winter wheat was down by about USD 3 m/t with spring wheat into 2025 also down by about USD 4 m/t.

 

Trade reports show a 70,000 m/t corn cargo loading in NOLA for shipment to the Netherlands ---- this is the largest shipment to there in quite a while. USA corn exports to the EU have been much better this year with Spain, Portugal, Ireland and non-EU UK getting US corn shipments and now we have the Netherlands added.

 

US corn prices were up on the week but showed a small drop on Friday which experts say was due to harvest price pressure.

 

The increase in soybean prices seems to be due to the strength in prices for soyoil and new soybean exports to China.

 

Wheat prices were steady-to-lower due to US harvest pressure but not down much due to dry conditions in other export markets which could limit production. EU’s Coceral did reduce its EU soft wheat production estimate by 6.3% which helped to move wheat prices higher everywhere and may push US prices up next week.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$24.00

Up $2.00

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$24.00

Up $2.00

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$32.00

Steady

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$32.00

Steady

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$33.00

Steady

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$49.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$50.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$38.00

Steady

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$51.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$47.00

Up $2.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$46.00

Up $2.00

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$51.00

Steady

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$25.00

Up $1.00

US PNW China: Panamax

$24.00

Up $1.00

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$56.00

Up $1.00

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$62.00

Up $2.00

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$46.00

Up $3.00

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$47.00

Up $3.00

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$41.00

Steady

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$42.00

Steady

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$42.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$51 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$52 Russia

Ukraine $67

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$17 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$18 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$46 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $34

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$30 Russia

Ukraine $41

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$29 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $52

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$30 Russia

Ukraine $41

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$47 Russia

Ukraine $70

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$19 Russia

Ukraine $24

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $46

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$25.00

Down $3.00

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$47.00

Steady

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$47.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1977

Up 87

Baltic Capesize Index

3235

Up 146

Baltic Panamax Index

1538

Up 110

Baltic Supramax Index

1289

Up 25

Baltic Handisize Index

707

Steady

 

 

 

Freightos Container Index

4701

Down 318

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2024/December 2024

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 255>>250 Jan

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 250<<255 Jan      

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 215<<220 Jan

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 219<<227 Jan 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 233<<240 Jan   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 239<<248 Jan      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 255>>230 Jan

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 210/215      

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 210/215

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 200/205

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 190/195

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 205>>200 Jan 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 215<<220 Jan  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 190<<200 Jan  

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 200<<210 Jan

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 233/236 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 210<<215 Jan

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 205<<215 Jan

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 205<<210 Jan

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 250/260

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 237>>232 Jan

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 405>>395 Jan  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 431>>421 Jan  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 380>>375 Jan     

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 460/470 spot

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 390>>375 Jan 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 415>>410 Jan

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 420>>415 Jan

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 435>>415 Jan

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 425<<435 Jan

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 540/550

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 210/220

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 220/225 Jan 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

It looks like the chances of an El Nino event affecting Peru fishing are quite slim up to March 2025. The latest ENFEN report shows 88% weak to neutral up to 95% weak to neutral. All looks quite good.

 

According to trade reports the first new sales have been booked to China for the upcoming season. Estimated sales prices are down by at least USD 50 m/t – some say down by US 100 m/t for Super Prime. Sales are said to have been quite small so may not represent a true market price.

 

Not a huge amount of interest seen from China yet as they have a record level of fishmeal stocks on hand.

 

The folks at MSI Ceres mention that they are off to the “new mega port of Chancay” which will be the biggest port in South America (they say). Everyone is looking forward to the full operation of this new port that will take a lot of loading pressure off of Callao port. 7,200 new jobs will be created at the new port with the “official” opening taking place in November.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,690

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

2,165

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

No prices

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,730

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,180

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1400/1420

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1500/1520

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1550/1570

1550/1570

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1600/1620

1600/1620

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1650/1670

1650/1670

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

4,500/4,800

3,100/3,200

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

5,000/5,500

6,300/6,500

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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