Saturday, October 12, 2024

Weekly Report -- October 12, 2024

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- October 12, 2024

 

Once again, we had another USDA WASDE report week – they only come once a month but sometimes it feels that it is much quicker.

 

This week’s WASDE report was a little bearish for most everything which tended to push prices lower after the report on Friday. US corn prices finished the week down by about USD 4 m/t while soybeans dropped by USD 12 m/t and soymeal by close to USD 15 m/t. US wheat prices were actually up on the week with winter wheat up by about USD 4 m/t and spring wheat up by about USD 2 m/t.

 

The WASDE report showed US corn production higher than most experts predicted but also showed increased corn exports. The estimated average farm price remained steady.

 

WASDE production and yield numbers for soybeans were lowered slightly. Farmers are reported to be out harvesting soybeans as quickly as they can with harvest pressure pushing prices lower. The increased strength of the US$ is said to also be a factor in soybean/soymeal price weakness as export sales could be affected.

 

Wheat didn’t have an exciting week in the US --- the WASDE didn’t change much for wheat although US ending stocks were lowered by th WASDE.

 

According to news reports this was a very high volume futures trading week for corn. soybeans and wheat.

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

Marine insurance costs from Ukraine are reported to have increased by 30% in the last few days due to increased Russian attacks on ports and vessels. Cost per ton freight from Ukraine expected to increase by about US$ 1 to 2 m/t.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$24.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$24.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$32.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$35.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$46.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$47.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$37.00

Steady

 

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$48.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

 

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$47.00

Up $1.00

 

US Gulf China: Panamax

$46.00

Up $1.00

 

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$54.00

Up $1.00

 

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

 

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$25.00

Up $1.00

 

US PNW China: Panamax

$24.00

Up $1.00

 

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$54.00

Down $1.00

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$60.00

Down $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

Argentina to China: Panamax

$46.00

Up $2.00

 

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$47.00

Up $2.00

 

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

 

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

 

Brazil to China: Panamax

$42.00

Up $3.00

 

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$43.00

Up $3.00

 

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$42.00

Steady

 

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$44.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$50 Russia

Ukraine $50

 

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$52 Russia

Ukraine $67

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$18 Russia

Ukraine $28

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$19 Russia

Ukraine $28

 

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$45 Russia

Ukraine $61

 

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $34

 

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$32 Russia

Ukraine $41

 

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$31 Russia

Ukraine $40

 

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $52

 

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$30 Russia

Ukraine $41

 

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$47 Russia

Ukraine $70

 

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$18 Russia

Ukraine $25

 

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $46

 

 

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$39.00

Down $1.00

 

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$60.00

Steady

 

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1809

Down 301

 

Baltic Capesize Index

2835

Down 408

 

Baltic Panamax Index

1435

Up 47

 

Baltic Supramax Index

1269

Up 11

 

Baltic Handisize Index

718

Up 6

 

 

 

 

 

Freightos Container Index

3627

Down 171

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2024/January 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 268<<276 Feb

 

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 265<<271 Feb      

 

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 230<<235 Feb

 

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 235<<240 Feb 

 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 245<<250 Feb   

 

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 255<<260 Feb      

 

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 230<<240 Feb

 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 215/225      

 

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 225/230

 

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 210/215

 

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 205/210

 

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 205>>200 Feb 

 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 220<<225 Feb  

 

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 210>>205 Feb  

 

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 210<<215 Feb

 

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 244/247 Spot

 

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 215<<225 Feb

 

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 215<<225 Feb

 

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 220<<230 Feb

 

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 250/260

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 237<<242 Feb

 

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 395>>385 Feb  

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 420>>410 Feb  

 

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 360<<365 Feb     

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 450/460 spot

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 360<<365 Feb 

 

 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 410<<415 Feb

 

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 410<<415 Feb

 

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 430>>400 Feb

 

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 415<<425 Feb

 

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 560/570

 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 210/220

 

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215/220 Feb 

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

The IMARPE cruise is expected to end late next week. However, spanning has been delayed due to cold water so fishing may not begin until November.

 

Peru fishmeal prices were steady this week but there was little activity from buyers or sellers. There is the expectation that China will be back with lower bids. Advance sales on the next fishing season remain at about 200,000 m/t. Stocks in China reported to be very good which will either delay new buying or push new bid prices lower.

 

Lots of speculation and what the next fishing quota will be --- all the way from a low of 1.7 million m/t to 2.5 mm/t.

 

The next IFFO conference will be held in Lisbon, Portugal on the 21 to 23 October --- all the important folks in the fishmeal industry will be there --- both buyers and sellers.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

No info

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

2,130

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

No prices

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,660

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,155

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1200/1220

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1300/1320

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1350/1370

1350/1370

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1400/1420

1400/1420

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1450/1470

1450/1470

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

4,000/4,500

3,100/3,200

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

4,500/5,000

6,300/6,500

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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