Saturday, October 19, 2024

Weekly Report --- October 19, 2024

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- October 19, 2024

 

Quite a down week for prices --- US wheat down by about 4%, soybeans down by 3.5% and corn by 2.6% ---- wheat prices were down by about USD 10 m/t with soybeans down by about USD 13 m/t and corn down by around USD 5 m/t. Soymeal was about the only item that didn’t drop lower and was up by USD 1 or 2 m/t.

 

According to trade reports this weekend much of the US price weakness in “harvest pressure” replated. Looking at world wheat news there seems to be good reason for wheat prices to be increasing rather than decreasing – Black Sea wheat crop prices and possible US drought are expected to move prices higher….perhaps.

 

US corn exports are very strong these days as US corn is very competitive in world markets, especially with the very good US export logistics. Spain, Portugal, Ireland and the UK are seeing US corn imports at levels we have not seen in quite a while, probably years.

 

Other than US harvest pressure, US soybean prices are said to be affected by improved planting/growing situation for soybeans in Brazil --- the new crop planting in Brazil is racing ahead. Planting is still behind the normal average but it is catching up.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$23.00

Down $1.00

 

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$23.00

Down $1.00

 

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$34.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$35.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$47.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$37.00

Steady

 

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$48.00

Steady

 

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

 

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$45.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf China: Panamax

$44.00

Down $2.00

 

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$53.00

Down $1.00

 

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

 

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$24.00

Down $1.00

 

US PNW China: Panamax

$23.00

Down $1.00

 

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$53.00

Down $1.00

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$59.00

Down $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

Argentina to China: Panamax

$44.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$45.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

 

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

 

Brazil to China: Panamax

$41.00

Down $1.00

 

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$42.00

Down $1.00

 

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$43.00

Up $1.00

 

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$53.00

Up $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Down $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$50 Russia

Ukraine $50

 

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$52 Russia

Ukraine $67

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$18 Russia

Ukraine $28

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$18 Russia

Ukraine $28

 

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$45 Russia

Ukraine $61

 

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $33

 

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$28 Russia

Ukraine $41

 

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$27 Russia

Ukraine $40

 

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $52

 

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$28 Russia

Ukraine $41

 

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$45 Russia

Ukraine $70

 

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$18 Russia

Ukraine $25

 

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$38.00

Down $1.00

 

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$65.00

Up $5.00

 

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1576

Down 233

 

Baltic Capesize Index

2276

Down 559

 

Baltic Panamax Index

1285

Down 150

 

Baltic Supramax Index

1250

Down 19

 

Baltic Handisize Index

727

Up 9

 

 

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

3424

Down 203

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2024/January 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 255<<265 Feb

 

  Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 260<<265 Feb      

 

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 230<<235 Feb

 

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 240<<245 Feb 

 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 245<<250 Feb   

 

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 253<<260 Feb      

 

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 240<<245 Feb

 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 230/235      

 

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 220/225

 

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 205/210

 

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 205/210

 

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 205<<210 Feb 

 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 220<<225 Feb  

 

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 205>>200 Feb  

 

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 205<<210 Feb

 

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 237/240 Spot

 

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 220<<225 Feb

 

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 215<<220 Feb

 

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 215<<220 Feb

 

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 250/260

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 230>>235 Feb

 

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 390>>385 Feb  

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 415>>410 Feb  

 

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 365>>355 Feb     

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 450/460 spot

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 365>>355 Feb 

 

 

 

 

  Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 405>>400 Feb

 

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 405>>395 Feb

 

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 420>>395 Feb

 

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 410<<420 Feb

 

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 560/570

 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 210/220

 

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 220/225 Feb 

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

The IMARPE research cruise of the North and Central regions of Peru is completed and the Southern cruise should finish this weekend. Everyone is now just waiting for a new quota announcement along with the official first fishing day.

 

Very little new business this week as the market is waiting to get the new quota details which will see the price trend for the next few weeks. Producers are also not offering anything this week mainly because they don’t want to get oversold as they have done in the past. Best for everyone to wait a few days for the quota announcement.

 

The Lisbon IFFO conference begins on Monday --- could be a lot of buying and selling in Lisbon, depending on the quota announcement.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,630

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

2,105

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

No prices

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,635

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,120

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1200/1220

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1300/1320

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1350/1370

1350/1370

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1400/1420

1400/1420

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1450/1470

1450/1470

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2,800/3,500

3,100/3,200

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

4,500/5,000

6,300/6,500

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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