Saturday, November 02, 2024

Weekly Report --- November 02, 2024

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- November 02, 2024

 

Comparing the end of last week with the close of business on Friday made the week look very calm and I guess that it was. After the Friday market closed, US corn was unchanged on the week, soybeans were down by about USD 2 m/t while soymeal was down by about USD 10 m/t. US winter wheat was up a little – up 2.00 m/t for hard red – while spring wheat too was up by about USD 2 m/t.

 

Corn had a good week for export with large sales to Mexico and a new shipment loading to Tunisia in NOLA --- haven’t seen US corn to Tunisia in quite a while. The US Grains Council office in Tunis says that more US corn business is expected for Tunisia.

 

Soybeans too had a good week for new export sales announcements but the US market is being kept from going higher by the very large (and probably record) Brazil soybean crop. Looking at the next few weeks, soybeans could be affected more by the results of the US Presidential election and the future US government attitude towards business with China.

 

US wheat was also quite steady in the week. There is rain expected in much of the wheat area in the US which should be good for the winter wheat program. The trade reports that wheat futures trading was quite small for the week with most international wheat interest looking at Russia. In general, the US wheat market is bearish for now.

 

Global Grain in Geneva is just over a week away, looking at the list of registered folks it looks like it will be very well attended again this year. For me, it is a very easy train trip from Avignon to Geneva and I look forward to seeing old friends and business associates.

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$21.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$21.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$33.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$33.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$34.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$44.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$45.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$37.00

Steady

 

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$46.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

 

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$43.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf China: Panamax

$42.00

Down $2.00

 

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$51.00

Down $2.00

 

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

 

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$23.00

Steady

 

US PNW China: Panamax

$22.00

Steady

 

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$55.00

Up $1.00

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$61.00

Up $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$38.00

Down $1.00

 

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

Argentina to China: Panamax

$41.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$42.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$32.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

 

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$32.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

 

Brazil to China: Panamax

$36.00

Down $3.00

 

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$37.00

Down $3.00

 

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$43.00

Steady

 

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$54q.00

Up $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$52 Russia

Ukraine $50

 

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$51 Russia

Ukraine $67

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$19 Russia

Ukraine $28

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$20 Russia

Ukraine $28

 

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$46 Russia

Ukraine $61

 

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $30

 

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$31 Russia

Ukraine $41

 

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$32 Russia

Ukraine $40

 

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $52

 

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$31 Russia

Ukraine $41

 

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$46 Russia

Ukraine $70

 

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$18 Russia

Ukraine $25

 

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$34.00

Down $1.00

 

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$55.00

Down $5.00

 

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1410

Down 32

 

Baltic Capesize Index

1848

Down 428

 

Baltic Panamax Index

1199

Down 2

 

Baltic Supramax Index

1163

Down 77

 

Baltic Handisize Index

718

Down 10

 

 

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

3299

Up 239

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2024/January 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 255<<260 Feb

 

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 250<<260 Feb      

 

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 225<<235 Feb

 

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 235<<240 Feb 

 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 235<<240 Feb   

 

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 240<<245 Feb      

 

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 225<<230 Feb

 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 225/230      

 

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 215/220

 

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 205/210

 

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 210/215

 

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 205>>200 Feb 

 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 220<<225 Feb  

 

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 205>>195 Feb  

 

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 220<<215 Feb

 

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 230/234 Spot

 

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 230<<235 Feb

 

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 215<<220 Feb

 

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 215<<220 Feb

 

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 255/265

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 230<<235 Feb

 

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 370>>360 Feb  

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 395>>385 Feb  

 

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 385>>345 Feb     

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 405/410 spot

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 340>>335 Feb 

 

 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 410>>405 Feb

 

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 405>>400 Feb

 

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 430>>400 Feb

 

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 415<<425 Feb

 

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 570/580

 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215/220

 

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 225/230 Feb 

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Fishing started at 00:00 on November 01 with the quota for North/Central set at 2,510,000 m/t which could yield about 584,000 m/t of fishmeal.

 

There is still no fishing in the South region with just over 212,000 m/t left on the 251,000 m/t quota. The quota expires on December 31,2024.

 

All the talk these days is about how well the catch will go --- will it be a really good year like 2020 or a bad year like 2019 --- all we can do is wait to see how the fishing starts off.

 

No one expects to see much buying/selling happening until we get at least the first week or two of fishing completed.

 

For now, prices are steady.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,615

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

2,070

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,615

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,615

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,070

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1200/1220

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1300/1320

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1350/1370

1350/1370

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1400/1420

1400/1420

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1450/1470

1450/1470

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2,800/3,000

2,600/2,700

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

4,500/5,000

6,300/6,500

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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