Saturday, November 09, 2024

Weekly Report --- November 09, 2024

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- November 09, 2024

 

I look forward to seeing some of you folks wandering around Global Grain in Geneva next week – I will be wandering there too.

 

Once again, this was WASDE week – corn prices were up by about USD 6 m/t, soybeans up by about USD 14 m/t, soymeal prices almost unchanged. US wheat prices too were almost unchanged on the week.

 

Corn’s small rally pushed prices to the highest level in several weeks. The WASDE report had lower yield and production levels for US corn which was the main factor in the price increase. Changes to world production and stocks were minimal.

 

Soymeal’s crop yield estimates were lower than most had expected while ending stocks were down more than the trade had expected. Overall, it was quite a strong week for soybean prices.

 

Wheat prices did very little this week and there wasn’t much in the WASDE report to change US prices. It was really a nothing report for US wheat – no excitement at all. Outside of the WASDE US winter wheat still seems to be benefiting from improved rainfall which should limit any moves higher for prices.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$21.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$21.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$33.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$33.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$34.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$44.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$45.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$37.00

Steady

 

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

 

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$43.00

Steady

 

US Gulf China: Panamax

$42.00

Steady

 

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$51.00

Steady

 

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

 

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$25.00

Up $2.00

 

US PNW China: Panamax

$24.00

Up $2.00

 

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$55.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$61.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$38.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

Argentina to China: Panamax

$41.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$42.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$30.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

 

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$30.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

 

Brazil to China: Panamax

$36.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

 

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$44.00

Up $1.00

 

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$54.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$48 Russia

Ukraine $50

 

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$51 Russia

Ukraine $67

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$19 Russia

Ukraine $28

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$20 Russia

Ukraine $28

 

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$45 Russia

Ukraine $61

 

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $30

 

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$33 Russia

Ukraine $40

 

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$32 Russia

Ukraine $39

 

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $52

 

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$31 Russia

Ukraine $40

 

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$46 Russia

Ukraine $70

 

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$18 Russia

Ukraine $25

 

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$32.00

Down $2.00

 

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$50.00

Down $5.00

 

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1495

Up 85

 

Baltic Capesize Index

2316

Up 468

 

Baltic Panamax Index

1176

Down 23

 

Baltic Supramax Index

1079

Down 84

 

Baltic Handisize Index

703

Down 15

 

 

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

3602

Up 303

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2024/February 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 255<<260 Mar

 

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 255<<260 Mar      

 

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 225<<230 Mar

 

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 227<<233 Mar 

 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 239<<243 Mar   

 

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 235<<240 Mar      

 

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 220<<230 Mar

 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 220/225      

 

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 220/225

 

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 205/210

 

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 210/215

 

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 213>>207 Mar 

 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 225<<230 Mar  

 

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 210>>205 Mar  

 

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 225<<235 Mar

 

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 225/228 Spot

 

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 230<<235 Mar

 

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 210<<215 Mar

 

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 210<<215 Mar

 

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 255/265

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 235<<240 Mar

 

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 365>>360 Mar  

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 390>>385 Mar  

 

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 350>>340 Mar     

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 405/410 spot

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 340>>335 Mar 

 

 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 420>>415 Mar

 

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 420>>415 Mar

 

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 440>>415 Mar

 

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 415<<425 Mar

 

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 575/585

 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215/220

 

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 225/230 Mar 

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

The catch in the first week of the new season is at 247,000 m/t – about 55,000 m/t of fishmeal and 4,400 m/t fishoil, which leaves 2,263,000 on the current quota.

 

Once again there was no catch reported in the South region of Peru.

 

Sales of fishmeal for this quota are reported to now be at about 230,000 m/t.

 

MSI Ceres mentioned this week that container freight rates from Peru to China are up by at least USD 15 m/t starting in December. This will either push up CNF prices or lower FOB prices if the exporters absorb the freight increase. Most sales to China are on a CNF price basis. So, unless there is an escalation clause in the current sales contracts, the shipper will have to bite the bullet on increased freight costs for orders booked.

 

Buying/selling interest is growing in Peru as everyone looks at the daily catch numbers and decides on the price direction. Most of the buyers are looking for Super Prime or Prime fishmeal, as is the normal pattern. Buyers want to buy the best before it is all sold while sellers are holding firm on price levels --- at least for now.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,610

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

2,060

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,510

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,610

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,050

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1220/1240

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1300/1320

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1350/1370

1350/1370

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1400/1420

1400/1420

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1450/1470

1450/1470

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2,800/3,000

2,600/2,700

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

4,500/5,000

6,300/6,500

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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