Saturday, December 14, 2024

Weekly Report --- December 14, 2024

 

 

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- December 14, 2024

 

Although this was a USDA WASDE week most grain and oilseed prices didn’t do anything too exciting. US corn prices for 2025 were up only slightly --- perhaps by USD 2m/t – while US soybeans finished the week also up by about USD 2 m/t. US soymeal prices were unchanged on the week. Depending on the type, US winter wheat was down by about USD 6 m/t while 2025 crop spring wheat was unchanged on the week --- old crop spring wheat did increase by about USD 5 m/t.

 

The USA weather looks good so far for winter wheat crops with rainfall seen where it is needed and temperatures slightly above average. While corn prices didn’t do much this week, they were reportedly held steady by good corn exports and strong demand from the ethanol industry. Soybeans didn’t do much but had been expected to move lower with lower than expected export sales.

 

With Christmas and New Year not that far away markets could get even quieter until we get into January 2025 --- of course, there are always surprises in the grain/oilseed markets.

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$23.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$23.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$32.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$32.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$33.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$43.00

Steady

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$44.00

Steady

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$36.00

Steady

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$45.00

Steady

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$40.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$39.00

Up $1.00

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$45.00

Down $3.00

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$22.00

Steady

US PNW China: Panamax

$21.00

Steady

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$51.00

Steady

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$57.00

Steady

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$37.00

Up $1.00

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$38.00

Up $1.00

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$26.00

Down $2.00

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$26.00

Down $2.00

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$35.00

Up $1.00

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$36.00

Up $1.00

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$42.00

Steady

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$51.00

Down $1.00

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$35 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$50 Russia

Ukraine $65

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$15 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$17 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$34 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$24 Russia

Ukraine $39

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $51

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$41 Russia

Ukraine $70

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$18 Russia

Ukraine $25

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$27.00

Down $2.00

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$42.00

Down $2.00

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1051

Down 116

Baltic Capesize Index

1263

Down 272

Baltic Panamax Index

995

Down 72

Baltic Supramax Index

959

Down 15

Baltic Handisize Index

618

Down 26

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

3484

Up 155

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2025/March 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 236 flat to March

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 251 flat to March   

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 230<<235 Mar

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 235<<240 Mar 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 245<<250 Mar   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 241<<247 Mar      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 225<<230 Mar

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 220/225      

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 225/230

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 210/215

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 240>>220 Mar

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 205 flat to Mar 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 220 flat to Mar  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 205 flat to Mar  

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 215<<230 Mar

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 224/227 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 205<<215 Mar

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 215<<220 Mar

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 215<<220 Mar

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 260/270

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 222 flat to Mar

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 345 flat to Mar  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 370 flat to Mar  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 325<<330 Mar     

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 370/375 spot

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 320 flat Mar 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 400 flat to Mar

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 400>>380 Mar

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 405>>370 Mar

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 375<<385 Mar

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 580/590

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215/220

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 220>>215 Mar 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Total catch on the Peru North/Central quota is now up to 1.48 million m/t which leaves just over 1.02 mm/t left open on the quota. Estimated fishmeal production is at 332,000 m/t with estimated fishoil at 34,300 m/t. Fishoil yield is still lower than expected at 2.3% overall.

 

There was also a little catch reported in the South Region --- 478 m/t – total catch now at 39,300 m/t leaving 211,700 m/t on the quota.

 

Fishmeal export prices continue to move higher. Some say that Super Prime may actually be as high as 1620/1640 m/t FOB. Total sales of fishmeal to date are stated by trade reports to be at about 440,000 to 450,000 m/t. Trade reports also say that there have been no sales reported for fishoil from this fishing.

 

IMARPE has set a maximum catch level for juveniles at a maximum of 188,000 m/t at which time an end to fishing can be ordered.

 

Trade reports this week seemed to be turning negative on chances of landing the full quota --- experts seem to feel that 85 to 90% of the quota will be landed.

 

Peru’s fishmeal exports to the end of November are at 886,000 m/t with 795,000 m/t going to China.

 

Just FYI, offices will be closed in Peru on December 23, 24 and 25 and on December 30, 31 and January 01, 2025.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,600

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

2,030

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,540

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,665

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,100

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1350/1370

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1450/1470

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1500/1520

1500/1520

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1550/1570

1550/1570

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1600/1620

1600/1620

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

No prices

2500/2600

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

No prices

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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