Saturday, December 21, 2024

Weekly Report --- December 21, 2024

 

 

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- December 21, 2024

 

This week’s report is the final report for 2024. Our first 2025 report will be issued on January 04.

 

We hope that everyone has a happy holiday season and that we all can look forward to a healthy, happy and peaceful 2025.

 

Corn prices in the US didn’t change much this – perhaps up by a dollar or two. Soybeans were down in the week by about USD 5 m/t but soymeal prices moved higher by USD 10 m/t. US spring wheat was up by about USD 3 m/t while winter wheat was about USD 6 to 8 m/t lower.

 

Trade reports say that soybeans, soft red winter wheat and hard red spring wheat all hit new futures contract lows. Only soymeal seemed to have an up week.

 

Corn was a wee bit firm this week mainly, according to the trade, due to strong export sales and record corn use in the US for ethanol production. Whenever corn prices dip a little there is increased buying interest --- no one is seriously expecting lower corn prices.

 

US soybeans are having to fight with lower priced Brazil beans for export sales. Futures trading in soybeans was at high levels this week, the highest in weeks.

 

The main factor for wheat prices this week was production and prices changes in international markets. Russia has reduced its wheat export quota again as it tries to maintain local stocks. Winter wheat planting in Europe has gone very well which could lead to a better crop in 2025. Trade reports say that Brazil is exporting low quality feed wheat and importing higher quality milling wheat.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$23.00

Steady

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$23.00

Steady

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$33.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$33.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$34.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$42.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$43.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$36.00

Steady

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$44.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$38.00

Down $2.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$37.00

Down $2.00

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$47.00

Up $2.00

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$22.00

Steady

US PNW China: Panamax

$21.00

Steady

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$51.00

Steady

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$57.00

Steady

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$36.00

Down $1.00

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$37.00

Down $1.00

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$26.00

Steady

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$26.00

Steady

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$34.00

Down $1.00

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$35.00

Down $1.00

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$41.00

Down $1.00

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$51.00

Steady

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$35 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$50 Russia

Ukraine $65

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$15 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$17 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$34 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$27 Russia

Ukraine $25

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$24 Russia

Ukraine $39

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $51

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$38 Russia

Ukraine $70

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$15 Russia

Ukraine $25

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$24.00

Down $3.00

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$38.00

Down $4.00

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

990

Down 61

Baltic Capesize Index

1115

Down 148

Baltic Panamax Index

976

Down 19

Baltic Supramax Index

940

Down 19

Baltic Handisize Index

579

Down 39

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

3730

Up 246

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2025/March 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 229<<232 Apr

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 245 flat to April   

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 225<<230 Apr

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 235<<240 Apr 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 235<<240 Apr   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 238<<242 Apr      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 225<<235 Apr

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 220/225      

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 218/225

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 210/215

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 220/225 Apr

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 205 flat to Apr 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 220 flat to Apr  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 205 flat to Apr  

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 220 flat to Apr

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 217/220 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 210<<215 Apr

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 220<<225 Apr

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 215<<220 Apr

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 260/270

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 220 flat to Apr

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 345 flat to Apr  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 370 flat to Apr  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 330<<335 Apr     

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 380/385 spot

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 320 flat Apr 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 395 flat to Apr

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 395>>375 Apr

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 395>>365 Apr

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 360<<370 Apr

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 580/590

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215/220

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215 flat to Apr 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Total catch in North/Central Peru has reached 1.76 million m/t leaving 752,000 m/t on the quota. Fishmeal production is at about 394,000 m/t with fishoil production at 45,300 m/t. Fishoil yields are increasing and are now at an overall seasonal average of 2.6% although for most of the catch this week the fishoil yield has been higher at about 4.0%.

 

The fishing quota for the South Region expires on December 31, 2024 with only 41,000 m/t landed on the 251,000 m/t quota. The new 2025 quota should be announced soon.

 

Trade reports are saying that there looks to be a good chance that December catch will reach 1 million m/t --- not a bad fishing month at all.

 

The current level of fishmeal export sales is reported to be at about 455,000 m/t. Buyers are looking at slightly lower prices but producers don’t seem to be interested in lower price levels. However, lower grade fishmeal prices have dropped a few dollars. New orders from China are reported to have decreased as stocks in China are still high and current shipments from Peru will arrive before the main aqua feed demand period in China.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,600

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

2,030

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,540

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,665

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,100

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1350/1370

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1420/1440

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1470/1490

1470/1490

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1520/1540

1520/1540

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1570/1590

1570/1590

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

3300/3400

2500/2600

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

4500/5250

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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