Saturday, February 15, 2025

Weekly Report --- February 15, 2025

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy De Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- February 15, 2025

 

US corn prices moved up by about USD 3 to 5 m/t this week with soybeans down by about USD 5 m/t and soymeal also down by about USD 5 m/t. US winter wheat was up by about USD 7 m/t while spring wheat moved higher by USD 2 m/t.

 

There is a lot of rain and snow in the US along with some very cold weather. The rain is good for winter and spring crops but the cold weather brings the risk of winter kill for wheat – which is why winter wheat prices moved higher this week.

 

World corn stocks are seen to be at an 11 year low which could keep a bullish push on corn prices. Corn planting in Brazil is going well but the Argentina corn crop is seen as suffering. Argentina soybeans too are being affected by drought with 36% of the soybean crop reported to be in poor/very poor condition while Brazil soybean planting is coming along just fine.

 

World wheat prices seem to be moving higher everywhere with worries about Russia and Ukraine wheat crops and quota helping to push markets higher.

 

Much of the talk in the grain market is still about USA tariffs and reactions by other countries and the effect that may be seen on US grain and oilseed exports. So far there has been no direct action on grains/oilseeds by any importing countries but, as we saw in Trumps’s last term, tariffs on USA export can come very quickly once US import tariffs are set.

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$22.00

Steady

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$22.00

Steady

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$31.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$31.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$32.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$38.00

Down $2.00

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$39.00

Down $2.00

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$32.00

Steady

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$40.00

Down $2.00

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$46.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$45.00

Up $1.00

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$38.00

Up $1.00

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$27.00

Steady

US PNW China: Panamax

$26.00

Steady

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

Closed

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

Closed

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$37.00

Up $2.00

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$36.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$37.00

Up $1.00

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$38.00

Up $1.00

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$18.00

Steady

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$62.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$18.00

Steady

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$35.00

Up $3.00

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$36.00

Up $3.00

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$28 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$51 Russia

Ukraine $65

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$14 Russia

Ukraine $32

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$13 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$28 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $18

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$20 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$19 Russia

Ukraine $39

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $51

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$20 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$31 Russia

Ukraine $70

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$15 Russia

Ukraine $23

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$20.00

Down $1.00

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$33.00

Steady

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

792

Down 23

Baltic Capesize Index

716

Down 124

Baltic Panamax Index

980

Down 55

Baltic Supramax Index

765

Up 88

Baltic Handisize Index

472

Up 95

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

3318

Down 76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2025/May 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 257<<261 June

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 269<<275 June   

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 240<<245 June

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 250<<255 June

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 255<<260 June   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 248<<253 May      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 235<<240 May

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 235/240      

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 235/240

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 230/235

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 235/240

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 240/245

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 225 flat to June 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 240 flat to June  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 215 flat to June  

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 245>>235 June

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 232/235 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 230<<235 June

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 235<<240 June

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 230<<235 June

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

No stock until May

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 245 flat to May

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 325<<335 June  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 350<<360 June  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 330 flat to June    

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

No prices

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 320<<330 June 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 415 flat to June

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 400 flat to June

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 395<<405 June

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 390<<400 June

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 560/570

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 185/195

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215 flat to June 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Fishing in the Southern Region of Peru is now up to 93,000 m/t, leaving 158,000 m/t on the quota. Estimated fishmeal production is at 21,000 m/t with about 1,900 m/t of fishoil.

 

Trade reports say that as much as 120,000 m/t of fishmeal have been booked for the next season in the North/Central region. Some say prices are a little higher while other say prices are steady. Needless to say, the buyers all seem to be Chinese.

 

Too soon for any news on the next quota and the IMARPE biomass cruise has not begun. Everything is just speculation for now.

 

Buyers will probably stay active until sellers/producers shut off presales ---- no one wants to oversell the next fishmeal production.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,595

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

1,955

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,580

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,695

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

1,990

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1350/1370

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1400/1420

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1450/1470

1450/147

0

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1500/1520

1500/1520

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1600/1520

1600/1620

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk – feed grade

2100/2200

2500/2600

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

No prices

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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