Saturday, February 01, 2025

Weekly Report --- February 01, 2025

 

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- February 01, 2025

 

This week is all Trump Tariff driven week as world markets wonder exactly what the details of the new USA tariffs will be --- so far details have been limited, just overall percentages but everyone expects that there will be some exceptions to the tariffs ---- after all the USA may still want Canadian oil, lumber and beef along with quite a few other things from Canada and Mexico. No sense for Trump to put on tariffs that do more harm than good to the USA, but good sense doesn’t always prove out.

 

According to the White House countries will be able to apply for “specific exemptions” for items from the new tariffs and there have been news items saying that the tariffs will be short-term as Trump is using them as a bargaining chip for other items. There are also question on tariffs being applied to items covered by the USMCA Agreement – once known as the North American Free Trade Agreement covering USA, Canada and Mexico.

 

With Mexico being a major market for US corn and Canada for US ethanol there are many questions on what reactions 25% tariff will bring.

 

Corn ended the week almost unchanged – perhaps down by a couple of dollars a ton. Soybeans were down by USD 5 m/t and soymeal by about USD 4 m/t. USA wheat prices were actually up on the week with both winter and spring wheat up by about USD 7 m/t.

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$22.00

Steady

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$22.00

Steady

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$27.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$27.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$28.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$42.00

Steady

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$43.00

Steady

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$33.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$44.00

Steady

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$44.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$43.00

Down $1.00

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$37.00

Down $2.00

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$26.00

Down $1.00

US PNW China: Panamax

$25.00

Down $1.00

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

Closed

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

Closed

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Down $2.00

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$36.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$20.00

Down $2.00

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$62.00

Down $1.00

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$20.00

Down $2.00

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$30.00

Down $3.00

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$31.00

Down $3.00

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$40.00

Steady

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$49.00

Steady

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$31 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$50 Russia

Ukraine $65

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$13 Russia

Ukraine $29

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$13 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$30 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $20

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$21 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$20 Russia

Ukraine $39

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $51

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$21 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$35 Russia

Ukraine $70

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$15 Russia

Ukraine $23

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$22.00

Steady

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$34.00

Steady

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

735

Down 43

Baltic Capesize Index

874

Down 109

Baltic Panamax Index

800

Up 26

Baltic Supramax Index

603

Down 36

Baltic Handisize Index

377

Down 34

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

3589

Down 63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2025/April 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 240<<245 May

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 255<<260 May   

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 235<<230 May

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 240<<245 May

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 245<<250 May   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 247<<250 May      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 230<<235 May

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 230/235      

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 230/235

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 220/225

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 230/235

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 235/240

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 220 flat to May 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 235 flat to May  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 220 flat to May  

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 240>>235 May

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 231/234 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 218<<225 May

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 225<<230 May

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 224<<230 May

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 260/270

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 245 flat to May

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 335<<345 May  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 360<<370 May  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 330 flat to May     

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 380/385 spot

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 325<<330 May 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 415 flat to May

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 405>>385 May

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 385<<395 May

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 395<<400 May

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 560/570

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 190/195

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 210 flat to May 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

It looks like the final catch number for the North/Central region will be at about 2.42 million m/t which should yield 575,000 m/t of fishmeal. South Area fishing is still moving along slowly with limited vessels fishing and very high juvenile levels – total South area catch is now at 64,600 m/t, leaving 186,400 m/t of the quota.

 

Everyone was extremely happy with the North/Central season and most everything has been sold. Trade reports estimate that unsold fishmeal is no more than 70,000 m/t and could be less as the sales numbers are not always accurate.

 

Final China import numbers for fishmeal are at 1.93 million m/t with 844,000 m/t coming from Peru. The other main suppliers are Vietnam 200,000 m/t, Russia 150,000 m/t Chile, 147,000 m/t, Thailand 130,000 m/t dropping down to India at 66,000 m/t and USA at 64,000 m/t --- there are 22 countries supplying China with fishmeal.

 

The top 4 producers/exporters in Peru represent 73.3% of total fishmeal exports of 938,000 m/t --- Tasa 23%, Exalmar 18.5%, Copeinca 18.4%, Diamante 13.3% --- stats courtesy of MSI-Ceres.

 

Looking forward to more of 2025 and looking back at a great 2024, there is a great deal of enthusiasm and positivity in the trade.


 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Sorry but updated prices are not available this week.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,595

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

1,965

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,560

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,685

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

1,995

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1350/1370

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1420/1440

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1470/1490

1470/1490

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1520/1540

1520/1540

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1570/1590

1570/1590

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk – feed grade

2300/2500

2500/2600

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

No prices

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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