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Phone: +33.6.8068.4564
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- March 01, 2025
The holy month of Ramadan began on Friday --- Ramadan Kareem to my readers.
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Quite a week this week --- US corn prices drop by about USD 14 m/t, soybeans down by USD 12 m/t, soymeal down by about USD 4 m/t ---- USA winter wheat and spring wheat down by as much as USD 18 m/t. World Perspectives call this a “brutal week” for commodities.
The drop in corn prices was seen as due mainly to expected increased corn planting in 2025 but if you add to that the possible retaliatory tariffs that may appear shortly then you could find a lot of US corn with nowhere to go in 2025. Also, the USDA Grains and Oilseeds Outlook report has 2025 corn production at record levels --- certainly bearish.
Soybeans were lower on concerns that tariffs on China could stop US China soybean exports. Along with the tariff risk there is also the improved weather in South America, Argentina in particular. Most of everything looked bearish this week.
Wheat too was hit very hard by tariff concerns but, as trade reports were quick to point out, wheat is at less risk of tariffs than other grains/oilseeds. However, there are still some concerns regarding winterkill for wheat both in the USA and Russia.
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I watched the full Zelensky/Trump/Vance Oval Office “event” --- I have never seen such a thing in my life --- Jeremy Bowan of the BBC said that “it was a political mugging of Zelensky” ---- where do we go from here?
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $22.00 | Steady |
US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $22.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $28.00 | Down $3.00 |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $28.00 | Down $3.00 |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $29.00 | Down $3.00 |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $32.00 | Down $3.00 |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $33.00 | Down $3.00 |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $32.00 | Steady |
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $34.00 | Down $3.00 |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
US Gulf India : Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $46.00 | Steady |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama | $35.00 | Down $3.00 |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady |
US PNW China: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $33.00 | Up $1.00 |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $70.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $1.00 |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Jordan | $42.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $32.00 | Up $1.00 |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $36.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $38.00 | Up $1.00 |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $1.00 |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $18.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $45.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $53.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $18.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $41.00 | Up $1.00 |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $34.00 | Down $1.00 |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $35.00 | Down $1.00 |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $40.00 | Up $1.00 |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Italy -- Handisize | $46.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize | $47.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Japan – Handisize | $43.00 | Steady |
South Africa to China -- Handisize | $43.00 | Steady |
Black Sea freight | ||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $28 Russia | Ukraine $50 |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $51 Russia | Ukraine $65 |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $14 Russia | Ukraine $33 |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $13 Russia | Ukraine $28 |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $28 Russia | Ukraine $61 |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $26 Russia | Ukraine $17 |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $21 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $20 Russia | Ukraine $39 |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $51 |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $21 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $41 Russia | Ukraine $70 |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $15 Russia | Ukraine $24 |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $55 Russia | |
Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi | Ukraine $45 | |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $21.00 | Up $1.00 |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Up $1.00 |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1229 | Up 248 |
Baltic Capesize Index | 1818 | Up 872 |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1063 | Down 107 |
Baltic Supramax Index | 895 | Up 9 |
Baltic Handisize Index | 547 | Up 13 |
Freightos/Baltic Container Index | 2666 | Down 221 |
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2025/May 2025
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 235<<240 June |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 245<<255 June |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240<<245 June |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250<<255 June |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240<<250 June |
Wheat, Superior, France | USD 238<<244 June |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 235<<245 June |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 235/240 |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 223/226 |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 230/235 |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 210/215 |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 240/245 |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 210<<215 June |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 225<<230 June |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 210 flat to June |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 235>>225 June |
Corn, FOB France | USD 231/234 Spot |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 225<<230 June |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 225<<230 June |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235<<240 June |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | No stock until May |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 220<<225 June |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 335<<345 June |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 360<<370 June |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 320<<325 June |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 320<<330 June |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 400<<410 June |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 385<<395 June |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 390<<400 June |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 385<<390 June |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 615/620 |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/225 |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220>>215 June |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Almost no fish landings in the South Region of Peru this week – only 4,400 m/t landed. Total to date
is now up to 117,000 m/t.
Trade reports say that there has been quite a bit of Chinese interest this week that have pushed prices for fishmeal in Peru up by about USD 20 m/t. Presales against the next fishing season are now up to about 175,000 m/t.
According to the first statistics in 2025, fishmeal exports from Peru in January were 89.2% to China out of a total of 145,000 m/t shipped.
Trade reports from Peru say that the new Cosco container port in Chancay will improve container shipment coordination in 2025 ---- more containers with faster loading.
Nothing new on the next fishing season as the IMARPE cruise is out chugging around and checking everything it can on th biomass --- still a few weeks to go on the cruise.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard Herring | 64% protein | 1,585 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,985 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,580 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,700 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 2,025 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1400/1420 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 | 1500/1520 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1570/1590 | 1570/1590 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1620/1650 | 1620/1650 |
Fish oil, crude bulk – feed grade | 2100/2200 | 2500/2600 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.
Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon
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