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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- March 08, 2025
Grain/oilseed prices continue to be affected by tariff worries and by estimates for next week’s WASDE report. USA tariff plans seem to change on a daily basis, which doesn’t lead to calmness in the trading markets.
As the week ended corn prices were down by USD 2 m/t with soybeans up by USD 2 m/t and soymeal up by about USD 5 m/t --- not too much change on the week after a few days of ups and downs every day. US winter wheat was down by USD 2 – 3 m/t with spring wheat about unchanged.
After a week of market excitement, the week ended with fewer concerns about US import tariffs for the moment as the US administration backed-off on tariffs with Canada and Mexico in order not to violate the existing USA/Canada/Mexico trade agreement --- the trade agreement expires on April 02 2025 after which tariffs are a possibility depending on how the situation may have changed in the next 3 or 4 weeks.
Looking at next week’s WASDE, corn and soybean ending stocks are expected to move lower with US wheat stocks moving a little higher.
Weather is still a factor for South American crops with some areas of Brazil getting needed rain while other areas remain bone dry. Argentina to is seeing some very dry areas but mainly in the north with the central and southern crop areas seeing good rainfall. In the US, rainfall has been quite good for much of the Midwest.
Brazil soybean export estimates for 2025 have been increased by 8.3% to 107 million m/t --- that is quite a number.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $24.00 | Up $2.00 |
$24.00 | Up $2.00 | |
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $28.00 | Steady |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $28.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $29.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Down $2.00 |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $31.00 | Down $2.00 |
$32.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $32.00 | Down $2.00 |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
US Gulf India : Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $46.00 | Steady |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama | $35.00 | Steady |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $28.00 | Up $1.00 |
US PNW China: Panamax | $27.00 | Up $1.00 |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $70.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $40.00 | Up $1.00 |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Jordan | $42.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $32.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $36.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $1.00 |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $38.00 | Down $1.00 |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | N/A | Steady |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $45.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $53.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | N/A | Steady |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $40.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Italy -- Handisize | $46.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize | $47.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Japan – Handisize | $43.00 | Steady |
South Africa to China -- Handisize | $43.00 | Steady |
Black Sea freight | ||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $30 Russia | Ukraine $50 |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $51 Russia | Ukraine $65 |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $14 Russia | Ukraine $33 |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $13 Russia | Ukraine $28 |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $30 Russia | Ukraine $61 |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $26 Russia | Ukraine $34 Corrected |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $21 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $20 Russia | Ukraine $39 |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $51 |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $21 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $41 Russia | Ukraine $70 |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $15 Russia | Ukraine $24 |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $55 Russia | |
Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi | Ukraine $45 | |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $21.00 | Steady |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1400 | Up 171 |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2422 | Up 604 |
Baltic Panamax Index | 995 | Down 68 |
Baltic Supramax Index | 864 | Down 31 |
Baltic Handisize Index | 547 | Up 9 |
Freightos/Baltic Container Index | 2404 | Down 262 |
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2025/June 2025
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 243>>234 July |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 255<<258 July |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240>>230 July |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250<<240 July |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 250<<240 July |
Wheat, Superior, France | USD 243<<249 July |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 235<<245 July |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 235>>225 July |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 230/235 |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/230 |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 235/240 |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 240/245 |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 210 flat to July |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 220<<225 July |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220>>200 July |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 225>>215 July |
Corn, FOB France | USD 231/234 Spot |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 220<<225 July |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 220<<225 July |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215<<220 July |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 235<<245 July |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 220<<225 July |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 340<<350 July |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 365<<375 July |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 330<<335 July |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 340<<345 July |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 405 flat to July |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 390<<395 July |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 400<<410 July |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 385<<390 July |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 620/625 |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/225 |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220>>215 July |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Total landings in the South Region are not at 136,000 m/t, which leaves 155,000 m/t open on the quota. Fishmeal production is estimated at 30,000 m/t with fishmeal at 2,800 m/t.
The export fishmeal business in Peru was quiet again this week but trade reports say producer export prices look to be about USD 30 m/t for pre-season sales which may be keeping buyers out of the market. Pre-sales are still in the 175,000 m/t range.
There has been some El Nino concern in Peru for later in the year --- nothing too serious as yet.
News stories say that the IMARPE cruise has been delayed a little as they are having a little trouble finding the anchovies.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard Herring | 64% protein | 1,585 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,985 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,580 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,700 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 2,025 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1400/1420 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 | 1500/1520 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1570/1590 | 1570/1590 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1620/1650 | 1620/1650 |
Fish oil, crude bulk – feed grade | 2100/2200 | 2500/2600 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon
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